2007 Election Predictions so far

I received 255 predictions for this year's contest, but have not had time to process them all onto this provisional results page - but don't worry, if you got an email from me your prediction has been factored in. Here are the first 144 predictions, submitted before last weekend. I have not been able to do the same sort of detailed analysis for all entries (believe it or not, folks, I don't do this for a living!) but if you want to peruse the raw data.it is here.

Constituencies in increasing order of unpredictability

North Antrim
Average prediction: DUP 3.0, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0, UUP 1.0
130 (90%) expect no change.
5 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the DUP.


Mid Ulster
Average prediction: SF 3.0, DUP 1.1, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.9
124 (86%) expect no change.
13 (9%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect an independent gain from SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and an independent to gain from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from SF

East Antrim:
Average prediction: DUP 3.0, UUP 2.0, Alliance 0.9, SDLP 0.1
120 (83%) expect no change
7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
6 (4%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and SF to gain from Alliance and the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from Alliance.

Foyle
Average prediction: SDLP 2.8, SF 2.2, DUP 1.0
119 (83%) expect no change.
20 (14%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
3 (2%) expect an independent gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP and SF to gain from the SDLP and DUP.


South Down
Average prediction: 2.0 SDLP, 2.0 SF, 1.0 DUP, 0.9 UUP
112 (78%) expect no change.
7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
7 (5%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
6 (4%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP.


East Belfast
Average prediction: DUP 2.8, UUP 2.0, Alliance 1.0, PUP 0.2
105 (73%) expect the DUP to gain from the PUP.
22 (15%) expect no change.
9 (6%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the PUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the PUP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the PUP and UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and UUP to gain from the PUP and Alliance.


Upper Bann
Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.8, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0
103 (72%) expect no change.
31 (22%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain both the UUP seats.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.


Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Average prediction: SF 2.1, DUP 1.8, UUP 1.2, SDLP 1.0
102 (71%) expect the DUP to keep their defection gain from the UUP.
26 (18%) expect the UUP to recoup their loss by defection to the DUP.
4 (3%) expect SF to gain from the UUP (plus DUP keep their defection gain)
4 (3%) expect the DUP to lose their defection gain to SF.
3 (2%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP (plus DUP keep their defection gain)
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose their defection gain to the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose their defection gain to the UKUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from SF (plus DUP keep their defection gain)
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the SDLP (plus DUP keep their defection gain)
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to recoup their defection loss and SF to gain the DUP's other seat.

West Belfast
Average prediction: SF 4.3, SDLP 0.9, DUP 0.8
96 (67%) expect no change.
33 (23%) expect SF to gain from the DUP.
10 (7%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect an independent gain from SF.
1 wild-eyed optimist (0.7%) expects Alliance to gain the DUP seat.

Newry and Armagh
Average prediction: SF 2.7, SDLP 1.2, UUP 1.0, DUP 0.9, Ind 0.1, other Unionist 0.1
95 (66%) expect no change.
25 (17%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
10 (7%) expect an independent gain from SF.
5 (3%) expect an "other Unionist" to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and the SDLP from SF and the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an "other Unionist" and the SDLP from SF and the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and an "other Unionist" from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and an "other Unionist" from the DUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent and the Greens to gain two seats from SF.


North Down
Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.9, Alliance 0.9, UKUP 0.8, Green 0.1
88 (61%) expect no change.
15 (10%) expect the DUP to gain from the UKUP.
10 (7%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
7 (5%) expect the Greens to gain from the UKUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from the DUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UUP to gain from the UKUP.
2 (1%) expect the Conservatives to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the UKUP and UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and the Greens to gain from the DUP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the PUP to gain from the UKUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Conservatives to gain from Alliance.

North Belfast
Average prediction: DUP 2.3, SF 2.0, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.6
87 (60%) expect no change.
51 (35%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
1 (0.7%) expects an "other Unionist" gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP.


West Tyrone
Average prediction: SF 2.4, DUP 1.1, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.9, Kieran Deeny 0.7
74 (51%) expect no change.
30 (21%) expect SF to gain from Deeny.
11 (8%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
11 (8%) expect the SDLP to gain from Deeny.
3 (0.7%) expect SF and the DUP to gain from Deeny and the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Deeny.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the SDLP to gain from Deeny and the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the SDLP.


Strangford
Average prediction: DUP 3.1, UUP 1.7, Alliance 0.8, SDLP 0.3, UKUP 0.1
74 (51%) expect no change.
23 (16%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
17 (12%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
5 (3%) expect the UKUP to gain from the SDLP.
5 (3%) expect the DUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Conservatives to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP and SF to gain from the DUP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the SDLP.

East Londonderry
Average prediction: DUP 2.5, UUP 1.5, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0
70 (49%) expect no change.
65 (45%) expect the DUP to gain a seat from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain both UUP seats.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects Alliance to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the SDLP.

South Belfast
Average prediction: SDLP 1.8, DUP 1.7, UUP 1.3, SF 0.8, Alliance 0.3
64 (44%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
24 (17%) expect no change.
21 (15%) expect the DUP and Alliance to gain from the UUP and SF.
13 (9%) expect the DUP and Alliance to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
6 (4%) expect Alliance to gain from the UUP.
5 (3%) expect Alliance to gain from SF.
5 (3%) expect Alliance to gain from the SDLP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the UUP.

South Antrim
Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.8, SDLP 0.8, SF 0.7, Alliance 0.5
57 (40%) expect SF to gain from Alliance.
24 (17%) expect no change.
19 (13%) expect Sf to gain from the SDLP.
10 (7%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
9 (6%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
8 (6%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the SDLP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the UKUP to gain from the SDLP and Alliance.


Lagan Valley
Average prediction: DUP 2.7, UUP 1.5, Alliance 0.8, SF 0.6, SDLP 0.5
45 (31%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
28 (19%) expect the DUP to retain both their defection gains from the UUP.
10 (7%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance and SF from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
9 (6%) expect the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
9 (6%) expect the UUP to recoup both defection losses.
7 (5%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP and the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
6 (4%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
6 (4%) expect the UUP to gain from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from Alliance and the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from Alliance and the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
2 (1%) expect the UUP to recoup one of their losses by defection and the other to be gained by SF.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to recoup both defection losses and SF to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose a defection gain to the UKUP.
1 expects the UKUP to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
1 expects the UKUP to gain from Alliance and the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
1 expects the DUP to gain from Alliance (and keep both defection gains).
1 expects the DUP to gain from the SDLP (and keep both defection gains).
1 expects the UUP to recoup both defection losses and SF to gain from Alliance.





The Prediction Contests: 2004 | 2003 | 2001 | 20 | 1999 | 1998

See also:The constituencies | Single Transferable Vote | The political parties | The Jenkins Report | 1998 Assembly election | 1998 candidates | Useful books and links

Results from 1996 to 2001 for each seat:East Belfast | North Belfast | South Belfast | West Belfast | East Antrim | North Antrim | South Antrim | North Down | South Down | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Foyle | Lagan Valley | East Londonderry | Mid Ulster | Newry and Armagh | Strangford | West Tyrone | Upper Bann

Surveys of each recent election: 2004 European | 2003 Assembly | 2001 Westminster | 2001 local govt | 20 S Antrim | 1999 European | 1998 Assembly | 1997 local govt | 1997 Westminster | 1996 Forum | 1995 N Down | 1994 European | 1993 local govt | 1992 Westminster | 1989 European | 1989 local govt | 1987 Westminster | 1986 by-elections | 1985 local govt | 1984 European | 1983 Westminster | 1982 Assembly | 1981 local govt | 1979 European | 1979 Westminster | 1977 local govt | 1975 Convention | Oct 1974 Westminster | Feb 1974 Westminster | 1973 Assembly | 1973 local govt | Summary of all Northern Ireland elections since 1973 | Brief summary of election results 1997-2003

Historical pieces:Westminster elections 1885-1910 | The 1918 election | Dáil elections since 1918 | Westminster elections since 1920 | Senate of Southern Ireland 1921 | Irish Senate elections in 1925 | Northern Ireland House of Commons | Northern Ireland Senate |

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Front page | Site Map | Notes and Queries | Updates Mailing List | About this site

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

Nicholas Whyte, 17 February 2007; updated 3 March



,
,
The Author | What's New | Your Comments

,
, ,
, ,
Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 2007