Lagan Valley

map East
                Antrim East Antrim East Belfast East Belfast East Londonderry Foyle Foyle Fermanagh & South Tyrone Lagan
                Valley Mid-Ulster North Antrim North Antrim Newry & Armagh North Belfast North Belfast North
                Down North Down South Antrim South Belfast South Belfast South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Belfast West Belfast West Tyrone results graph
Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency contains most of Lisburn District Council and the Dromore area of Banbridge District Council. The MP is Jeffrey Donaldson (elected as UUP in 1997 and 2001, and as DUP in 2005) who replaced his former party's former leader James Molyneaux (now Lord Molyneaux) in 1997. In the 2011 Assembly election the DUP won four seats, and the UUP and Alliance one each (the DUP gained a seat from SF in 2011, a seat which had been gained by SF from the SDLP in 2007; the DUP also gained two seats from the UUP in 2007, one of which had been gained from the UKUP in 2003). See also the 1983-92 Lagan Valley results.

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

Lagan Valley was created in 1983 and originally included all of Lisburn District Council and parts of Castlereagh, but was changed in the 1995 revision, taking Dromore from the old South Down constituency. In 2010 it lost the Glenavy ward of Lisburn district to South Antrim, and the Dunmurry ward and the northern part of the Derryaghy ward to West Belfast. This made the new constituency 6.4% less Catholic, and 6.1% more Protestant than the old, the biggest shift of this kind resulting from that set of changes.

Lagan Valley's population in the 2001 census was 101,696 (4th of the 18 constituencies).

Results of recent elections using new boundaries



DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2011a
53.1% 20.4% 2.9% 12.4% 1.7% 6.1% 3.4%
2011lg
51.4% 22.2% 2.0% 12.5% 1.8% 5.2% 5.1%
2010w 49.8% 21.1% 8.6% 11.4%   5.0% 4.0%
2007a
52.3% 20.3% 2.2% 10.3% 3.8% 4.0% 7.2%
2005w 58.3% 23.0%
10.9%
3.5% 4.3%
2005lg 53.3% 28.4%   10.3% 1.4% 3.4% 3.0%

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the new boundaries.Figures for the old boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.
NB also that the Conservatives got 0.9% in 2007 (on the old boundaries) and supported the UUP in 2010 and 2011.

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@Edwin Poots (DUP) 7,329 (20.7%)
@Basil McCrea (UUP) 5,771 (16.3%)
@Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,389 (12.4%)
@Paul Givan (DUP) 4,352 (12.3%)
@Jonathan Craig (DUP) 4,263 (12.0%)
Brenda Hale (DUP) 2,910 (8.2%)
Pat Catney (SDLP) 2,165 (6.1%)
Mark Hill (UUP) 1,482 (4.2%)
Mary-Kate Quinn (SF) 1,203 (3.4%)
Lyle Rea (TUV) 1,031 (2.9%)
Conor Quinn (Green) 592 (1.7%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 18,854 (53.1%, +0.8%) 4 seats (+1)
UUP 7,253 (20.4%, +0.1%) 1 seat
Alliance 4,389 (12.4%, +2.1%) 1 seat
SDLP 2,165 (6.1%, +2.1%)
SF 1,203 (3.4%, -3.8%) (-1)
TUV 1,031 (2.9%)
Green 592 (1.7%, -0.5%)

Electorate 67,532
Votes cast 35,842 (53.1%); spoilt votes 355 (1.0%)
Valid votes 35,487; quota 5070

Sinn Féin lost a seat to the DUP, thanks to boundary changes; an impressive performance by the DUP, helped by woeful balancing from the UUP who could have won a second seat here if they were capable of discipline. Brenda Hale of the DUP was almost 1400 votes ahead of the SDLP's Pat Carey for the last seat, with another 450 undistributed DUP surplus votes which would have widened the gap still further (though another 50 undistributed surplus votes, which had started with SF and transferred to Alliance, might have put a small dent in that).

2011 local government

My projection of votes cast in Lisburn, apart from Glenavy and the parts in West Belfast, plus the four Dromore wards from Banbridge:

DUP 18,321 (51.4%)
UUP 7,916 (22.2%)
Alliance 4,467 (12.5%)
SDLP 1,844 (5.2%)
SF 1,805 (5.1%)
TUV 514 (1.4%)
Green 372 (1.1%)
Cons 210 (0.6%)
Inds 258 (0.7%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would have got the DUP three seats and the UUP and Alliance one each, the last being between the fourth DUP and second UUP candidates.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Electorate: 65,257; Total Poll: 36,678 (56.2%); Invalid Votes: 138 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 36,540

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

Despite some slippage of the DUP vote to the TUV, Donaldson comfortably held his seat. Farther down the table, the SDLP outpolled SF for the first time since 2001, but not enough to preserve a Nationalist seat at Assembly level. These votes would give the DUP three seats, and the UUP and Alliance one each, with the last between the DUP's fourth and the UUP's second candidates.

2007 Assembly election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Jeffrey Donaldson MP (DUP) 9793 (23.4%)
Paul Butler (SF) 5098 (12.2%)
Basil McCrea (UUP) 4031 (9.6%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 3765 (9.0%)
Jonathan Craig (DUP) 3471 (8.3%)
*Edwin Poots (DUP) 3457 (8.3%)
Paul Givan (DUP) 3377 (8.1%)
+Marietta Farrell (SDLP) 2839 (6.8%)
*Billy Bell (UUP) 2599 (6.2%)
Ronnie Crawford (UUP) 1147 (2.7%)
Michael Rogan (Green) 922 (2.2%)
^Robert McCartney (UKUP) 853 (2.0%)
Neil Johnston (Conservative) 387 (0.9%)
John Magee (WP) 83 (0.2%)

*Elected in 2003 from Lagan Valley
^Elected in 2003 from North Down
+Appointed to 2003-07 Assembly to fill a vacancy
DUP 20,098 (48.1%, +27.5%) 3 seats (+2)
UUP 7,777 (18.6%, -27.6%) 1 seat (-2)
SF 5,098 (12.2%, +4.3%) 1 seat (+1)
Alliance 3,765 (9.0%, -1.7%) 1 seat)
SDLP 2,839 (6.8%, -0.8%) (-1)
Green 922 (2.2%)
UKUP 853 (2.0%)
Conservative 387 (0.9%, -0.03%)
WP 83 (0.2%, -0.04%)

Electorate 70,101 
Votes cast 42,058 (60.0%); spoilt votes 236 (0.6%) 
Valid votes 41,822; quota 5,975

The DUP consolidated their two defection gains from UUP, and SF gained from SDLP; half the seats in the constituency changing hands compared with 2003, and only two outgoing MLAs being reelected. On the final count, Givan (DUP) was 657 votes behind Poots (also DUP) with undistributed surpluses of 289 from Alliance and 173 from another DUP candidate.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 23,289 (54.7% +41.3%)
Basil McCrea (UUP) 9,172 (21.5% -35.0%)
@Seamus Close (Alliance) 4,316 (10.1% -6.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Fein) 3,197 (7.5% +1.6%)
@Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 2,598 (6.1% -1.4%)

* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

An impressive result for Donaldson running under his new party banner. These results, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would have brought the DUP three seats and the UUP one; Alliance would be pretty likely to get one of the other two, with the last between Sinn Fein and a fourth DUP candidate.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

The constituency comprises 26 of 30 wards in Lisburn (all 5 wards in the Downshire DEA, all 5 wards in the Killultagh DEA, all 7 wards in the Lisburn Town North DEA, all 6 wards in the Lisburn Town South DEA, and 3 of the 7 wards in the Dunmurry Cross DEA [Derryaghy, Dunmurry, and Seymour Hill]); and 4 of 17 wards in Banbridge (4 of the 5 wards in the Dromore DEA [Dromore North, Dromore South, Gransha, and Quilly]). The votes cast in 2005 were:

DUP 18842 (45.4%)
UUP 10737.3 (25.9%) Best equivalent result for UUP in Northern Ireland
Sinn Fein 4199.771429 (10.1%)
Alliance 3907 (9.4%)
SDLP 3204.742857 (7.7%)
Conservative 333 (0.8%)
Green 284 (0.7%)

If these votes were cast in a six-seat STV election, the DUP would win three seats, the UUP probably two, with the last between Alliance and Sinn Fein. These figures probably overestimate the Nationalist parties' vote share, because I have treated Dunmurry Cross and Dromore as if they were homogenous, when in both cases the parts of the DEA in Lagan Valley are markedly more Unionist than the parts outside the constituency.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
Jeffrey Donaldson (UUP) 14104 (34.2%)
*Edwin Poots (DUP) 5175 (12.5%)
*Seamus Close (Alliance) 4408 (10.7%)
Andrew Hunter (DUP) 3300 (8.0%)
Paul Butler (SF) 3242 (7.9%)
*Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 3133 (7.6%)
*Billy Bell (UUP) 2782 (6.7%)
*Ivan Davis (Ind) 2223 (5.4%)
Norah Beare (UUP) 1508 (3.7%)
Jim Kirkpatrick (UUP) 675 (1.6%)
Joanne Johnston (Cons) 395 (1.0%)
Frances McCarthy (WP) 97 (0.2%)
Andrew Park (PUP) 212 (0.5%)
UUP 19,069 (46.2%, +15.4%) 3 seats Best result for UUP in Northern Ireland
DUP 8,475 (20.5%, +2.5%) 1 seat
Alliance 4,408 (10.7%, -3.9%) 1 seat
SF 3,242 (7.9%, +3.6%)
SDLP 3,133 (7.6%, -1.1%) 1 seat
Ind 2,223 (5.4%)
Con 395 (1.0%, -0.5%)
PUP 212 (0.5%)
WP 97 (0.2%, -0.2%)

Electorate 67,910 
Votes cast 41,724 (61.4%); spoilt votes 470 (1.1%) 
Valid votes 41,254; quota 5,894 

Reaction: UUP gain from UKUP in their best result of the election. SDLP managed to defend against both SF and DUP challenges, though it was a narrow thing, with only 258 votes separating Butler and Lewsley on the crucial count and the resulting surplus roughly doubling Beare's final margin over Hunter to 612.

Lagan Valley had lost 10.22% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 15.92% in the Old Warren ward of Lisburn to 6.21% in the Quilly ward of Banbridge. 8 constituencies lost fewer voters, 9 lost more.

Subsequent development: Donaldson and Beare resigned from the UUP on 18 December 2003 and subsequently joined the DUP.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*Jeffrey Donaldson (UUP) 25,966 (56.5%) Best result in Northern Ireland
@Seamus Close (Alliance) 7,624 (16.6%) Best result in Northern Ireland
@Edwin Poots (DUP) 6,164 (13.4%)
@Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 3,462 (7.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Fein) 2,725 (5.9%)

Electorate: 72,671; votes cast: 46,222 (63.6%); spoilt votes: 281 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 45,941; UUP majority 18,342

*outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

The least surprising result in Northern Ireland, in an election that elsewhere was full of drama. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP four seats, Alliance one, and a close race between the SDLP and DUP for the last seat.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

The constituency comprises 26 of 30 wards in Lisburn (all 5 wards in the Downshire DEA, all 5 wards in the Killultagh DEA, all 7 wards in the Lisburn Town North DEA, all 6 wards in the Lisburn Town South DEA, and 3 of the 7 wards in the Dunmurry Cross DEA) and 4 of 17 wards in Banbridge (4 of the 5 wards in the Dromore DEA)

UUP 17543.3 (39%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
DUP 10849.6 (24%)
Alliance 5169 (11%)
SF 3940 (9%)
SDLP 3423.5 (8%)
Conservative Party 636 (1%)
NIUP 100 (0.2%)
Inds 3377.4 (7%)
Total valid 45038.8

If these votes had been cast in a six-seat STV election, the UUP would have won two seats, and the DUP, Alliance and SF one each. The last seat would have been between the second DUP candidate and a third UUP candidate.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
 
#Seamus Close (Alliance) 6,788
Billy Bell (UUP) 5,965
Patrick Roche (UKU) 5,361
*Edwin Poots (DUP) 5,239
Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 4,039
*Ivan Davis (UUP) 3,927
#Gary McMichael (UDP) 3,725 
*David Campbell (UUP) 3,158 
*Cecil Calvert (DUP) 3,111 
Paul Butler (SF) 2,000 
Ken Hull (UUP) 1,289 
Annie Campbell (NIWC) 955 
William Bleakes (C) 702 
Frances McCarthy (WP) 208 
John Collins (NLP) 43
UUP 14,339 (30.83%) 2 seats
DUP 8,350 (17.95%) 1 seat
Alliance 6,788 (14.59%) 1 seat
UKU 5,361 (11.53%) 1 seat
SDLP 4,039 (8.68%) 1 seat
UDP 3,725 (8.01%) 
SF 2,000 (4.30%) 
NI Women 955 (2.05%) 
C 702 (1.51%) 
WP 208 (0.45%) 
NLP 43 (0.09%) 

Electorate: 71,661 
Votes cast: 47,074 (65.7%); spoilt votes: 564 (1.2%) 
Valid votes: 46,510; quota 6,645

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Lagan Valley
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

A very disappointing result for the UUP, not helped by the public row within the party over the leadership's bar on dissident MP Jeffrey Donaldson from running. The chief beneficiary of this was Paddy Roche of the UKUP, another of that party's unexpected gains. Gary McMichael of the UDP failed to make the breakthrough and finished as runner-up. Another unexpected winner was Patricia Lewsley of the SDLP, who finished with 6,282 votes to McMichael's 4,970. There were over a thousand votes in undistributed surpluses, most of which would have favoured McMichael.

1997 Local Government Election

Ulster Unionist Party 12,638.2 (41%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 4,634.3 (15%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,180.7 (14%)
Sinn Féin 2,213.5 (7%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 2131.5 (7%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1615 (5%)
Conservative Party 935 (3%)
Women's Coalition 209 (1%)
Workers Party 96 (0.31%)
Others 2180.7 (7%)
Total valid 30,934.8 (43.39% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

ƒJeffrey Donaldson (Ulster Unionist Party) 24,560 (55%)
ƒSeamus Close (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 7,635 (17%)
ƒEdwin Poots (Democratic Unionist Party) 6,005 (14%)
Dolores Kelly (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 3,436 (8%)
Stuart Sexton (Conservative Party) 1,212 (3%)
Sue Ramsey (Sinn Féin) 1,110 (3%)
Frances McCarthy (Workers' Party) 203 (0.46%)
Hugh Finlay (Natural Law Party) 149 (0.34%)
Turnout 44,310 (62.21%)

ƒ member of the Forum

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 16,367 (37%) Jeffrey Donaldson, Robert Campbell, Ivan Davis elected Best result for UUP in Northern Ireland
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 9,592 (22%); Cecil Calvert, Edwin Poots elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,508 (10%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 4,001 (9%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) (7%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) (5%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 1,132 (3%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 1,072 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 520 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 386 (1%)
Green Party 175 (0.39%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 164 (0.37%)
Labour (Lab) 143 (0.32%)
Workers Party (WP) 72 (0.16%)
Democratic Left (DL) 43 (0.10%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 18 (0.04%)
Independent Chambers 3 (0.01%)

Electorate: 70,045; votes cast: 43,482 (62.0%); spoilt votes: 27 (0.0%); valid votes: 43,455

Davis had been elected to the 1982 Assembly for South Antrim; Donaldson was also elected to it in a 1985 by-election for South Down.

Results 1996-2007



DUP UKUP UUP UDP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2007a
48% 2% 19%
2% 9% 3% 7% 12%
2005w 55%
22%

10%
6% 8%
2005lg 45%
26%
1% 9% 1% 8% 10%
2003a 21%
46%
7% 11% 0% 8% 8%
2001w 13%
57%

17%
8% 6%
2001lg 24%
39%
2% 11% 7% 8% 9%
1998a 18% 12% 31% 8% 2% 15% 3% 9% 4%
1997lg 14%
41% 5% 7% 15% 4% 7% 7%
1997w 14%
55%
3% 17% 1% 8% 3%
1996f 22% 5% 37% 7% 3% 10% 3% 9% 3%

 


See also: Full 2003 results from Lagan Valley | Full 1998 results from Lagan Valley | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 
This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 9 May 2010.



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