Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency contains most of Lisburn District Council and the Dromore area of Banbridge District Council. The MP is Jeffrey Donaldson (elected as UUP in 1997 and 2001, and as DUP in 2005) who replaced his former party's former leader James Molyneaux (now Lord Molyneaux) in 1997. In the 2007 Assembly election the DUP won three seats, and the UUP, Alliance and Sinn Fein one each (this represented a gain of two seats from the UUP by the DUP, and of the SDLP's former seat by SF; in 2003, the UUP had won three seats, including one previously held by the UKUP, but two of their elected representatives defected to the DUP soon after the election). Lagan Valley was created in 1983 and originally included all of Lisburn District Council and parts of Castlereagh, but was changed in the 1995 revision, taking Dromore from the old South Down constituency (see the 1983-92 Lagan Valley results).

See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

The New Boundaries: Lagan Valley lost the Glenavy ward of Lisburn district to South Antrim, and the Dunmurry ward and the northern part of the Derryaghy ward to West Belfast. This made the new constituency 6.4% less Catholic, and 6.1% more Protestant than the old, the biggest shift of this kind resulting from the proposed changes.

Lagan Valley's population in the 2001 census was 101,696 (4th of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 36.43 (7th highest).
• 18.16% described themselves as Catholic (14th of 18 constituencies); 25.47% as Presbyterian (8th highest), 24.54% as Church of Ireland (2nd highest), 4.76% as Methodist (equal 7th highest) and 9.68% as members of other Christian denominations (2nd highest). 17.10% were "no religion or religion not stated" (7th highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 20.62% Catholic (14th out of 18), 75.02% Protestants and other Christians (5th highest), 0.39% other religions and philosophies (equal 7th highest) and 3.98% none (6th).

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the new boundaries.
NB also that the Conservatives got 0.9% in 2007 (on the old boundaries) and supported the UUP in 2010.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 18,199 (49.8%, -8.5%)
Daphne Trimble (UCUNF) 7,713 (21.1%, -1.9%)
Trevor Lunn (Alliance) 4,174 (11.4%, +0.5%)
Keith Harbinson (TUV) 3,154 (8.6%)
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,835 (5.0%, +1.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Féin) 1,465 (4.0%, -0.3%)
Electorate: 65,257; Total Poll: 36,678 (56.2%); Invalid Votes: 138 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 36,540

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

Despite some slippage of the DUP vote to the TUV, Donaldson comfortably held his seat. Farther down the table, the SDLP outpolled SF for the first time since 2001, but on the new boundaries it will not be enough to preserve a Nationalist seat at Assembly level. These votes would give the DUP three seats, and the UUP and Alliance one each, with the last between the DUP's fourth and the UUP's second candidates.

2007 Assembly election (7 March, six seats)

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) 23,289 (54.7% +41.3%)
Basil McCrea (UUP) 9,172 (21.5% -35.0%)
@Seamus Close (Alliance) 4,316 (10.1% -6.5%)
Paul Butler (Sinn Fein) 3,197 (7.5% +1.6%)
@Patricia Lewsley (SDLP) 2,598 (6.1% -1.4%)

* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

An impressive result for Donaldson running under his new party banner. These results, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would have brought the DUP three seats and the UUP one; Alliance would be pretty likely to get one of the other two, with the last between Sinn Fein and a fourth DUP candidate.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

DUP 18842 (45.4%)
UUP 10737.3 (25.9%) Best equivalent result for UUP in Northern Ireland
Sinn Fein 4199.771429 (10.1%)
Alliance 3907 (9.4%)
SDLP 3204.742857 (7.7%)
Conservative 333 (0.8%)
Green 284 (0.7%)

If these votes were cast in a six-seat STV election, the DUP would win three seats, the UUP probably two, with the last between Alliance and Sinn Fein. These figures probably overestimate the Nationalist parties' vote share, because I have treated Dunmurry Cross and Dromore as if they were homogenous, when in both cases the parts of the DEA in Lagan Valley are markedly more Unionist than the parts outside the constituency.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Reaction: UUP gain from UKUP in their best result of the election. SDLP managed to defend against both SF and DUP challenges, though it was a narrow thing, with only 258 votes separating Butler and Lewsley on the crucial count and the resulting surplus roughly doubling Beare's final margin over Hunter to 612.

Lagan Valley had lost 10.22% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 15.92% in the Old Warren ward of Lisburn to 6.21% in the Quilly ward of Banbridge. 8 constituencies lost fewer voters, 9 lost more.

Subsequent development: Donaldson and Beare resigned from the UUP on 18 December 2003 and subsequently joined the DUP.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 72,671; votes cast: 46,222 (63.6%); spoilt votes: 281 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 45,941; UUP majority 18,342

*outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

The least surprising result in Northern Ireland, in an election that elsewhere was full of drama. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP four seats, Alliance one, and a close race between the SDLP and DUP for the last seat.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

UUP 17543.3 (39%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
DUP 10849.6 (24%)
Alliance 5169 (11%)
SF 3940 (9%)
SDLP 3423.5 (8%)
Conservative Party 636 (1%)
NIUP 100 (0.2%)
Inds 3377.4 (7%)
Total valid 45038.8

If these votes had been cast in a six-seat STV election, the UUP would have won two seats, and the DUP, Alliance and SF one each. The last seat would have been between the second DUP candidate and a third UUP candidate.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Lagan Valley
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

A very disappointing result for the UUP, not helped by the public row within the party over the leadership's bar on dissident MP Jeffrey Donaldson from running. The chief beneficiary of this was Paddy Roche of the UKUP, another of that party's unexpected gains. Gary McMichael of the UDP failed to make the breakthrough and finished as runner-up. Another unexpected winner was Patricia Lewsley of the SDLP, who finished with 6,282 votes to McMichael's 4,970. There were over a thousand votes in undistributed surpluses, most of which would have favoured McMichael.

1997 Local Government Election

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 16,367 (37%) Jeffrey Donaldson, Robert Campbell, Ivan Davis elected Best result for UUP in Northern Ireland
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 9,592 (22%); Cecil Calvert, Edwin Poots elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,508 (10%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 4,001 (9%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) (7%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) (5%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 1,132 (3%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 1,072 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 520 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 386 (1%)
Green Party 175 (0.39%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 164 (0.37%)
Labour (Lab) 143 (0.32%)
Workers Party (WP) 72 (0.16%)
Democratic Left (DL) 43 (0.10%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 18 (0.04%)
Independent Chambers 3 (0.01%)

Electorate: 70,045; votes cast: 43,482 (62.0%); spoilt votes: 27 (0.0%); valid votes: 43,455

Davis had been elected to the 1982 Assembly for South Antrim; Donaldson was also elected to it in a 1985 by-election for South Down.

See also: Full 2003 results from Lagan Valley | Full 1998 results from Lagan Valley | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 9 May 2010.