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| Map and diagram by Conal Kelly | |
This constituency takes in the northern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Newtownabbey District Council. The member of parliament has been Nigel Dodds since the 2001 election; he defeated Cecil Walker (UUP) who had represented North Belfast since 1983. The DUP hold two of the Assembly seats, as do Sinn Fein, with the UUP and SDLP on one each (the DUP and SF gained in 2003 from PUP and an independent Unionist). The constituency was expanded a little in 1983 and rather more in 1995. See also 1983-1992 North Belfast results, 1973-82 North Belfast results and 1950-1970 North Belfast results.
See also the detailed guide by "Sammy Morse".
The New Boundaries: Under the Boundary Commission's proposals, North Belfast is to gain six Newtownabbey wards, Cloughfern (which covers the centre of the borough, including Dunanny Hill itself, though most of the voters are on the Whiteabbey side) from East Antrim and Ballyhenry, Collinbridge, Glebe, Glengormley and Hightown (essentially the area generally referred to as Glengormley) from South Antrim. This makes the new constituency 0.2% more Catholic, and 0.3% less Protestant than the old. The electoral effects will be minimal.
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a | 35.6% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 14.4% | 29.8% |
| 2005w | 43.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 16.7% | 27.0% | |
| 2005lg | 36.2% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 16.8% | 24.5% |
Alban Maginness, MLA for North Belfast, has his own web-site.
North Belfast's population in the 2001 census was 86,066 (15th of the 18 constituencies).
| DUP | UUP | PUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a | 37% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 14% | 31% | |
| 2005w | 46% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 29% | ||
| 2005lg | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 17% | 27% | |
| 2003a | 34% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 17% | 27% |
| 2001w | 41% | 12% | 1% | 21% | 26% | |||
| 2001lg | 25% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 11% | 18% | 25% | |
| 1998a | 21% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 21% | 21% |
| 1997lg | 14% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 22% |
| 1997w | 52% | 5% | 2% | 20% | 20% | |||
| 1996f | 19% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 19% | 19% |
| *Nigel
Dodds MP (DUP) 6973 (23.5%) *Gerry Kelly (SF) 5414 (18.2%) Carál Ní Chuilín (SF) 3680 (12.4%) *Fred Cobain (UUP) 2498 (8.4%) *Nelson McCausland (DUP) 2462 (8.3%) *Alban Maginness (SDLP) 2212 (7.4%) Pat Convery (SDLP) 1868 (6.3%) William Humphrey (DUP) 1673 (5.6%) Raymond McCord (Independent) 1320 (4.4%) Peter Emerson (Green) 590 (2.0%) Thomas McCullough (Alliance) 486 (1.6%) ^Robert McCartney (UKUP) 360 (1.2%) John Lavery (WP) 139 (0.5%) Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 40 (0.1%) *Elected in 2003 from North Belfast ^Elected in 2003 from North Down |
DUP 11,108 (37.4%, +3.2%) 2 seats SF 9,094 (30.6%, +3.6%) 2 seats SDLP 4,080 (13.7%, -3.1%) 1 seat UUP 2,498 (8.4%, -1.0%) 1 seat Ind 1,320 (4.4%) Green 590 (2.0%, +1.2%) Alliance 486 (1.6%, +0.7%) UKUP 360 (1.2%) WP 139 (0.5%, +0.2%) Rainbow George 0.1% (+0.1%) Electorate 49,372 Votes cast 30,067 (60.9%); spoilt votes 352 (1.2%) Valid votes 29,715; quota 4,246 |
*@ Nigel Dodds (DUP) 13935 (45.6% +4.8%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) 8747 (28.6% +3.4%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4950 (16.2% -4.8%)
@Fred Cobain (UUP) 2154 (7.1% -4.9%)
Marjorie Hawkins (Alliance) 438 (1.4%)
Marcella Delaney (Workers Party) 165 (0.5% -0.1%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 151 (0.5% +0.3%)
* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly
These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats, SF two and the SDLP one.
DUP 11,147.7 (37.0%)
Sinn Fein 8,028.1 (26.6%)
SDLP 5,007.7 (16.6%)
UUP 2,775.2 (9.2%)
PUP 1,017.1 (3.4%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Assoc 684.2 (2.3%)
Green 432 (1.4%)
Alliance 270 (0.9%)
Independents 802.6 (2.7%)
Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the North Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. The DUP, and SF would get two seats each, and the SDLP one, with the last between the UUP and a third DUP runner.
| *Nigel
Dodds (DUP) 9276 (29.4%) *Gerry Kelly (SF) 5524 (17.5%) *Alban Maginness (SDLP) 3186 (10.1%) Kathy Stanton (SF) 2990 (9.5%) *Fred Cobain (UUP) 2961 (9.4%) Pat Convery (SDLP) 2108 (6.7%) Nelson McCausland (DUP) 1500 (4.8%) *Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 1358 (4.3%) *Fraser Agnew (UUC) 802 (2.5%) Frank McCoubrey (Ind) 469 (1.5%) Eliz Byrne McCullough (NIWC) 467 (1.5%) Marjorie Hawkins (Alliance) 305 (1.0%) Peter Emerson (Green) 261 (0.8%) Raymond McCord (Ind) 218 (0.7%) Marcella Delaney (WP) 90 (0.3%) John Gallagher (VFYS) 17 (0.1%) |
DUP
10,776
(34.2%, +12.9%) SF 8,514 (27.0%, +5.7%) SDLP 5,294 (16.8%, -4.3%) UUP 2,961(9.4%, -1.5%) PUP 1,358 (4.3%, -4.8%) UUC 802 (2.5%) Inds 687 (2.2%) NIWC 467 (1.5%) Alliance 305 (1.0%, -2.1%) Green 261 (0.8%, +0.2%) WP 90 (0.3%, -0.1%) VFYS 17 (0.1%) Electorate
51,353 |
Reaction: As widely predicted, DUP and SF took extra seats at the expense of Agnew and Hutchinson. The final result was not even close, with 1521 votes separating Stanton and Hutchinson, and an undistributed SDLP surplus of 1064 which would only have widened the gap.
North Belfast had lost 15.90% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 23.46% in the Ardoyne ward of Belfast to 9.86% in Cavehill ward, also in Belfast. 15 constituencies lost fewer voters, only South and West Belfast lost more.Electorate:
60,941; votes cast: 41,309 (67.7%); spoilt votes: 377 (0.9%)
Valid votes:
40,932; DUP majority 6,387
* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly
The least unexpected of the DUP's three gains in 2001, though the collapse of Walker's vote was dramatic - partly caused by a disastrous TV performance a few weeks before the election. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP and SF would both have won two, the SDLP one, and the last seat would have been between the UUP and DUP.
DUP
10028.3
(25%)
SF 9867.3 (25%)
SDLP 6969 (18%)
UUP 4218.9
(11%)
PUP 3059.3
(8%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1288.2
(3%)
Newtownabbey
Ratepayers Association 541.7 (1%) Best result in Northern
Ireland
Women's Coalition
253 (1%)
Community Candidates
133.3 (0.3%)
Workers Party
84 (0.2%)
Ulster Third
Way 11.2 (0.03%)
Independents
3407.0 (8%)
Total valid
39802.1
If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. And it is very tight. The DUP, SF and the SDLP certainly have a seat each. SF would be pretty likely to get a second seat. In that case there would be two more Unionist seats, with the DUP and UUP most likely to take them, but the PUP would have an outside chance.
| *Nigel
Dodds (DUP) 7,476 votes *Alban Maginness (SDLP) 6,196 votes *Gerry Kelly (SF) 5,610 votes Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 3,751 votes Martina McIlkenny (SF) 3,165 votes Fraser Agnew (UU) 2,976 votes Martin Morgan (SDLP) 2,465 votes Fred Cobain (UUP) 2,415 votes *David Browne (UUP) 2,064 votes #Eric Smyth (DUP) 1,288 votes Glyn Roberts (All) 1,267 votes #John White (UDP) 911 votes Stephen Cooper (UKU) 748 votes Peter Emerson (Green) 257 votes Sam McAughtry (Lab) 255 votes Steven Doran (WP) 155 votes Kevin Blair (NLP) 76 votes Delores Quinn (Ind Nat Commty Cand) 50 votes |
SF
8,775 (21.34%) 1 seat DUP 8,764 (21.31%) 1 seat SDLP 8,661 (21.06%) 1 seat UUP 4,479 (10.89%) 1 seat PUP 3,751 (9.12%) 1 seat UU 2,976 (7.24%) 1 seat All 1,267 (3.08%) UDP 911 (2.22%) UKU 748 (1.82%) Green 257 (0.62%) Lab 255 (0.62%) WP 155 (0.38%) NLP 76 (0.18%) Ind NCC 50 (0.12%) Electorate
62,541 |
* elected
in
1996 Forum/talks election from North Belfast
# elected in
1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.
The success of 'Ulster Unionist' Fraser Agnew, and the failure of any of the three main parties (SDLP, SF, DUP) to win a second seat, made North Belfast one of the shock results of the election. The UUP polled a mere 11% in a constituency which they represent at Westminster, and were lucky to beat the SDLP's Martin Morgan for the last seat, by 4,971 votes to 4,682. North Belfast remains Northern Ireland's most fissiparous seat.
Sinn
Féin
7,682 (22%)
Ulster Unionist
Party 6,707.4 (20%)
Social Democratic
and Labour Party 4,807 (14%)
Democratic
Unionist Party 4,707.1 (14%)
Progressive
Unionist Party 3,120 (9%)
Alliance Party
of Northern Ireland 1,750.8 (5%)
Ulster Democratic
Party 1491.3 (4%)
Labour 919.2
(3%)
Newtownabbey
Ratepayers Association 397.5 (1%)
Northern Ireland
Labour 327.5 (1%)
Green Party
318 (1%)
Women's Coalition
209 (1%)
United Kingdom
Unionist Party 187.5 (1%)
Workers Party
162 (0.47%)
Ulster Independence
Movement 8 (0.02%)
Natural Law
Party 5 (0.01%)
Others 799.5
(2%)
Total valid
34162.3 (52.67% of electorate)
* outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum
Democratic
Unionist
Party (DUP) 7,778 (19%); Nigel Dodds, William Snoddy elected
Sinn Féin
(SF) 7,681 (19%); Gerry Kelly elected
Social Democratic
and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,493 (19%); Alban Maginness elected
Ulster Unionist
Party (UUP) 6,938 (17%); David Browne elected
Progressive
Unionist Party (PUP) 3,777 (9%)
Ulster Democratic
Party (UDP) 1,874 (5%)
Alliance Party
of Northern Ireland (APNI) 1,670 (4%)
United Kingdom
Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,329 (3%)
Labour 571
(1%)
Northern Ireland
Women's Coalition (NIWC) 486 (1%)
Workers Party
274 (WP) (1%)
Green Party
265 (1%)
Democratic
Left (DL) 123 (0.30%)
Ulster's Independent
Voice (UIV) 63 (0.16%)
Ulster Independence
Movement (UIM) 41 (0.10%)
Independent
McMullan 25 (0.06%)
Independent
Chambers 21 (0.05%)
Electorate: 65,411; votes cast: 40,528 (61.9%); spoilt votes: 105 (0.2%); valid votes: 40,423
I was the lead candidate on Alliance's list for the 1996 Forum elections, and had been selected as the prospective parliamentary candidate for the Westminster election, before I went to work in Bosnia and withdrew (for the time being) from active politics in Northern Ireland. In the end I am certain that Tom Campbell got a better result in 1997 than I would have.
If the 1996 Forum election had been to elect six delegates by STV, and the voters' choice of parties translated directly to first-preferences for candidates, the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, the SDLP and probably the PUP would all have won one seat. The last seat would have been an awfully tight squeeze between the second candidates of the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, and the SDLP. Although the UUP and SDLP would have had fewer first preferences than DUP and Sinn Fein, they would both have benefited from transfers (from me!) to pull them ahead, and the UUP would probably have just shaded it.
See also: Full 2003 results from North Belfast | Full 1998 results from North Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your
comments,
please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.
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Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
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