Maps and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the northern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Newtownabbey District Council. The member of parliament has been Nigel Dodds since the 2001 election; he defeated Cecil Walker (UUP) who had represented North Belfast since 1983. The DUP hold three of the Assembly seats, Sinn Fein two, and the SDLP one (the DUP gained the UUP's seat in 2011, and the DUP and SF gained in 2003 from PUP and an independent Unionist). See also 1983-1992 North Belfast results, 1973-82 North Belfast results and 1950-1970 North Belfast results.

See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

North Belfast was expanded a little in 1983 and rather more in 1995, and further in 2010 when it gained six Newtownabbey wards, one from East Antrim and five from South Antrim. This made the new constituency 0.2% more Catholic, and 0.3% less Protestant than the old.

North Belfast's population (on the old boundaries) in the 2001 census was 86,066 (15th of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 37.50 (3rd highest).
• 40.53% described themselves as Catholic (8th of 18 constituencies); 18.25% as Presbyterian (9th highest), 15.13% as Church of Ireland (9th highest), 5.68% as Methodist (4th highest) and 4.84% as members of other Christian denominations (12th highest). 15.22% were "no religion or religion not stated" (8th highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 44.93% Catholic (8th out of 18), 51.86% Protestants and other Christians (11th highest), 0.45% other religions and philosophies (3rd highest) and 2.76% none (8th).

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the new boundaries. Figures for the old boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.

2011 Assembly Election (six seats)

One of the DUP's gains, here from the UUP's Fred Cobain who finally ebbed beneath the level of viability; he was 442 votes behind the DUP's Paul Bradley on the last count, with 328 Nationalist surplus votes undistributed. On previous counts, Bradley had picked up twice as many Natonalist transfers as Cobain, so the real margin of defeat is probably greater.

2011 local government election

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
@Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Electorate: 65,504; Total Poll: 37,233 (56.8%); Invalid Votes: 240 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 36,993

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

Dodds will be happy to have retained his seat, but SF have been gradually closing the gap here over the last couple of elections. These votes, if cast in a six-seat Assembly election, would give the DUP and SF two seats each, the SDLP one, and the last seat between a third DUP candidate, the UUP and possibly Alliance.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@ Nigel Dodds (DUP) 13935 (45.6% +4.8%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) 8747 (28.6% +3.4%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4950 (16.2% -4.8%)
@Fred Cobain (UUP) 2154 (7.1% -4.9%)
Marjorie Hawkins (Alliance) 438 (1.4%)
Marcella Delaney (Workers Party) 165 (0.5% -0.1%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 151 (0.5% +0.3%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats, SF two and the SDLP one.

2005 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 11,147.7 (37.0%)
Sinn Fein 8,028.1 (26.6%)
SDLP 5,007.7 (16.6%)
UUP 2,775.2 (9.2%)
PUP 1,017.1 (3.4%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Assoc 684.2 (2.3%)
Green 432 (1.4%)
Alliance 270 (0.9%)
Independents 802.6 (2.7%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the North Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. The DUP, and SF would get two seats each, and the SDLP one, with the last between the UUP and a third DUP runner.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Reaction: As widely predicted, DUP and SF took extra seats at the expense of Agnew and Hutchinson. The final result was not even close, with 1521 votes separating Stanton and Hutchinson, and an undistributed SDLP surplus of 1064 which would only have widened the gap.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 60,941; votes cast: 41,309 (67.7%); spoilt votes: 377 (0.9%)
Valid votes: 40,932; DUP majority 6,387

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

The least unexpected of the DUP's three gains in 2001, though the collapse of Walker's vote was dramatic - partly caused by a disastrous TV performance a few weeks before the election. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP and SF would both have won two, the SDLP one, and the last seat would have been between the UUP and DUP.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 10028.3 (25%)
SF 9867.3 (25%)
SDLP 6969 (18%)
UUP 4218.9 (11%)
PUP 3059.3 (8%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1288.2 (3%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 541.7 (1%) Best result in Northern Ireland
Women's Coalition 253 (1%)
Community Candidates 133.3 (0.3%)
Workers Party 84 (0.2%)
Ulster Third Way 11.2 (0.03%)
Independents 3407.0 (8%)
Total valid 39802.1

If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. And it is very tight. The DUP, SF and the SDLP certainly have a seat each. SF would be pretty likely to get a second seat. In that case there would be two more Unionist seats, with the DUP and UUP most likely to take them, but the PUP would have an outside chance.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from North Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

The success of 'Ulster Unionist' Fraser Agnew, and the failure of any of the three main parties (SDLP, SF, DUP) to win a second seat, made North Belfast one of the shock results of the election. The UUP polled a mere 11% in a constituency which they represent at Westminster, and were lucky to beat the SDLP's Martin Morgan for the last seat, by 4,971 votes to 4,682. North Belfast remains Northern Ireland's most fissiparous seat.

1997 Local Government Election

Sinn Féin 7,682 (22%)
Ulster Unionist Party 6,707.4 (20%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 4,807 (14%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,707.1 (14%)
Progressive Unionist Party 3,120 (9%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 1,750.8 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1491.3 (4%)
Labour 919.2 (3%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 397.5 (1%)
Northern Ireland Labour 327.5 (1%)
Green Party 318 (1%)
Women's Coalition 209 (1%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party 187.5 (1%)
Workers Party 162 (0.47%)
Ulster Independence Movement 8 (0.02%)
Natural Law Party 5 (0.01%)
Others 799.5 (2%)
Total valid 34162.3 (52.67% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

* outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 7,778 (19%); Nigel Dodds, William Snoddy elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 7,681 (19%); Gerry Kelly elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,493 (19%); Alban Maginness elected
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 6,938 (17%); David Browne elected
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 3,777 (9%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,874 (5%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 1,670 (4%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,329 (3%)
Labour 571 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 486 (1%)
Workers Party 274 (WP) (1%)
Green Party 265 (1%)
Democratic Left (DL) 123 (0.30%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 63 (0.16%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 41 (0.10%)
Independent McMullan 25 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 21 (0.05%)

Electorate: 65,411; votes cast: 40,528 (61.9%); spoilt votes: 105 (0.2%); valid votes: 40,423

I was the lead candidate on Alliance's list for the 1996 Forum elections, and had been selected as the prospective parliamentary candidate for the Westminster election, before I went to work in Bosnia and withdrew (for the time being) from active politics in Northern Ireland. In the end I am certain that Tom Campbell got a better result in 1997 than I would have.

If the 1996 Forum election had been to elect six delegates by STV, and the voters' choice of parties translated directly to first-preferences for candidates, the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, the SDLP and probably the PUP would all have won one seat. The last seat would have been an awfully tight squeeze between the second candidates of the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, and the SDLP. Although the UUP and SDLP would have had fewer first preferences than DUP and Sinn Fein, they would both have benefited from transfers (from me!) to pull them ahead, and the UUP would probably have just shaded it.

See also: Full 2003 results from North Belfast | Full 1998 results from North Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 9 May 2010.