| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
| Maps and diagram by Conal Kelly | |
 |
See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".
The New Boundaries: South Belfast gained four Castlereagh wards, Hillfoot and Wynchurch from East Belfast, and Carryduff East and Carryduff West from Strangford. This made the new constituency 0.4% less Catholic, and 0.6% more Protestant than the old.
South Belfast's population in the 2001 census was 94,994 (9th of the 18 constituencies).
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2010w | 23.7% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 41.0% | ||
| 2007a |
23.6% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 25.6% | 12.8% |
| 2005w | 29.6% | 22.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 30.1% | 9.0% | |
| 2005lg | 25.0% | 17.1% | 0.1% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 26.9% | 14.4% |
NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the new boundaries.
NB also that the Conservatives got 0.4% in 2007 (on the old boundaries) and supported the UUP in 2010.
*@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
@
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
@Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Electorate: 59,524; Total Poll: 34,359 (57.7%); Invalid Votes: 173 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 34,186
* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency
An excellent result for the SDLP, who were helped by Sinn Féin's decision not to contest the seat but on these figures would probably have won anyway. Unionist voters from 2005 seem to have simply not turned out this time, or supported Alliance instead. On these figures, the SDLP would probably win three Assembly seats, the other three going to DUP, UUP and Alliance.
| Jimmy
Spratt (DUP) 4762 (15.7%) *Alasdair McDonnell MP (SDLP) 4379 (14.4%) *Alex Maskey (SF) 3996 (13.2%) Anna Lo (Alliance) 3829 (12.6%) *Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3748 (12.4%) *Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 2647 (8.7%) Christopher Stalford (DUP) 2035 (6.7%) *Esmond Birnie (UUP) 1804 (5.9%) Bobby Stoker (UUP) 1122 (3.7%) Brenda Cooke (Green) 737 (2.4%) Andrew Park (PUP) 410 (1.4%) David Hoey (UKUP) 298 (1.0%) James Barbour (Socialist) 248 (0.8%) Patrick Joseph Lynn (WP) 123 (0.4%) Roger Lomas (Conservative) 108 (0.4%) Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 66 (0.2%) Charles Smyth (Procapitalism) 22 (0.1%) Geoffrey Wilson (Independent) 10 (0.03%) *Elected in 2003 from South Belfast |
SDLP 8,127 (26.8%, +3.9%) 2 seats DUP 6,797 (22.4%, +1.6%) 1 seat UUP 5,573 (18.4%, -8.7%) 1 seat (-1) SF 3,996 (13.2%, +0.6%) 1 seat Alliance 3,829 (12.6%, +6.7%) 1 seat (+1) Green 737 (2.4%, +1.4%) PUP 410 (1.4%, -0.2%) UKUP 298 (1.0%) Socialist (0.8%, +0.3%) WP 123 (0.4%, +0.1%) Conservative 108 (0.4%, -0.01%) Rainbow George 66 (0.2%, +0.1%) Procapitalism 22 (0.1) Ind 10 (0.03%) Electorate 48,923 Votes cast 30,353 (62.4%); spoilt votes 189 (0.6%) Valid votes 30,344; quota 4,335 |
@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339 (32.3% +1.7%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104 (28.4%)
@Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263 (22.7% -22.1%)
@Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,882 (9.0% +1.4%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,012 (6.3% +0.9%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 235 (0.7% +0.4%)
Patrick Joseph Lynn (Workers Party) 193 (0.6% +0.1%)
@ Member of the Assembly
In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP one. SF would be best placed to take the last seat.
SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)
In a six-seat STV election, these votes would probably give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP and Alliance one each.
| *Michael
McGimpsey (UUP) 5389 (17.2%) *Mark Robinson (DUP) 3991 (12.7%) #Alex Maskey (SF) 3933 (12.6%) *Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3910 (12.5%) *Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 3266 (10.4%) Ruth Patterson (DUP) 2538 (8.1%) *Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2311 (7.4%) *Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 2150 (6.9%) Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 1185 (3.8%) John Hiddleston (UUP) 769 (2.5%) Tom Ekin (Alliance) 664 (2.1%) Thomas Morrow (PUP) 495 (1.6%) John Wright (Green) 308 (1.0%) James Barbour (Soc) 167 (0.5%) Roger Lomas (Con) 116 (0.4%) Patrick Lynn (WP) 96 (0.3%) Lindsay Steven (VFYS) 42 (0.1%) |
UUP
8,469 (27.0%,
+3.6%) 2 seats SDLP 7,176 (22.9%, +1.2%) 2 seats DUP 6,529 (20.8%, +6.7%) 1 seat SF 3,933 (12.6%, +6.2%) 1 seat NIWC 2,150 (6.9%, -2.7%) Best result for NIWC in Northern Ireland Alliance 1,849 (5.9%, -4.1%) PUP 495 (1.6%, -3.6%) Green 308 (1.0%) Soc 167 (0.5%) Cons 116 (0.4%, +0.2%) WP 96 (0.3%, -0.1%) VFYP 42 (0.1%) Electorate
50,707 |
* Outgoing member for South Belfast
# Outgoing member for West Belfast
SF gain from Monica McWilliams of the NIWC.
South Belfast had lost 16.98% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from a whopping 41.60% in the Botanic ward of Belfast to 8.09% in the Knockbracken ward of Castlereagh. 16 constituencies lost fewer voters, only West Belfast lost more.Electorate:
59,436; votes cast: 38,185 (64.25%); spoilt votes: 233 (0.6%)
Valid votes:
37,952; UUP majority 5,399
* Outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly
This was the first result to be declared in the 2001 election; fevered speculation than McDonnell might win on a split Unionist vote rapidly turned out to be as fanciful as most of the SDLP's predictions about this election. For the first time ever, less than half the voters of South Belfast voted Unionist. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP three seats and the SDLP two, with the last probably going to the Women's Coalition.
Votes cast in 2001 were as follows:
UUP
11020.5
(29%)
SDLP 9052.4
(25%)
DUP 6274.1
(17%)
Alliance 4204
(11%)
SF 3803.1 (10%)
PUP 1517.5
(4%)
NIWC 947.8
(3%)
WP 201 (1%)
Cons 42.8 (0.1%)
UKUP 24.7 (0.1%)
Inds 341.7
(1%)
Total Valid
35410.5
There are three Unionist seats, which would go two to the UUP and one to the DUP. The SDLP have one seat for sure, but the last two seats would be very close between a second SDLP candidate, SF and Alliance.
| *Alasdair
McDonnell (SDLP) 4,956 Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 4,938 *Steve McBride (All) 4,086 #Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 3,912 Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3,882 Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2,875 Mark Robinson (DUP) 2,872 Sean Hayes (SF) 2,605 Myreve Chambers (DUP) 2,449 Ernie Purvis (PUP) 2,112 David Adams (UDP) 1,745 *Jim Clarke (UUP) 1,720 Grant Dillon (UKU) 1,496 Wiliam Dixon (Unionist) 437 Boyd Black (Lab) 231 Paddy Lynn (WP) 176 Roger Lomas (C) 97 James Anderson (NLP) 73 Niall Cusack (Lab) 62 |
UUP
9,533 (23.41%) 2 seats SDLP 8,838 (21.70%) 2 seats DUP 5,321 (13.07%) 1 seat All 4,086 (10.03%) NI Women 3,912 (9.61%) 1 seat SF 2,605 (6.40%) PUP 2,112 (5.19%) UDP 1,745 (4.28%) UKU 1,496 (3.67%) Unionist 437 (1.07%) Lab 293 (0.72%) WP 176 (0.43%) C 97 (0.24%) NLP 73 (0.18%) Electorate:
61,209 |
* elected
in
1996 Forum/talks election from South Belfast
# elected in
1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.
This was always the most likely place for the Women's Coalition to break through. A bitterly disappointing result for Alliance, whose Steve McBride came third in terms of first preference votes but was overtaken by four other candidates. On the final count he had 4,832 votes to Hanna's 4,983. There were 143 undistributed UUP votes from McGimpsey's and Birnie's surpluses, which would have gone a long way to making up the difference, so the effective margin of defeat was more on the order of 15 votes than 151.
Ulster
Unionist
Party 7,938.7 (26%)
Social Democratic
and Labour Party 6,422.8 (21%)
Democratic
Unionist Party 4,955.2 (16%)
Alliance Party
of Northern Ireland 4,480.2 (15%)
Progressive
Unionist Party 2,125.3 (7%)
Sinn Féin
1,714 (6%)
Women's Coalition
691.7 (2%)
Ulster Democratic
Party 576.3 (2%)
Green Party
230 (1%)
Workers Party
198.3 (1%)
Conservative
Party 71 (0.24%)
Natural Law
Party 24 (0.08%)
Ulster Independence
7 (0.02%)
Eastr Belfast
Labour 6.3 (0.02%)
Total Valid
31,155.4 (46.77% of electorate)
* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum
Ulster
Unionist
Party (UUP) 8,617 (23%); Robert Stoker, James Clarke elected
Social Democratic
and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,956 (21%); Alasdair McDonnell elected
Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP) 5,818 (15%); Joan Parkes elected
Alliance Party
of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,689 (12%); Steve McBride elected
Sinn Féin
(SF) 2,455 (6%)
Progressive
Unionist Party 2,321 (6%)
United Kingdom
Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,750 (5%)
Ulster Democratic
Party 1,666 (4%)
Northern Ireland
Women's Coalition 947 (3%)
Labour (Lab)
333 (1%)
Green Party
314 (1%)
Conservative
Party (Con) 279 (1%)
Workers Party
(WP) 270 (1%)
Democratic
Partnership 133 (0.35%)
Ulster Independence
Movement (UIM) 108 (0.29%)
Democratic
Left (DL) 96 (0.25%)
Ulster Christian
Democrat Party (UCD) 31 (0.08%)
Natural Law
Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent
Chambers 5 (0.01%)
Electorate: 63,890; votes cast: 37,897 (59.3%); spoilt votes: 89 (0.2%); valid votes: 37,808
| DUP | UUP | PUP | Oth U | Alliance | NIWC | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
22% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 13% | 4% | 27% | 13% | |
| 2005w | 28% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 32% | 9% | |||
| 2005lg | 25% | 20% | 1% | 13% | 4% | 27% | 10% | ||
| 2003a | 21% | 27% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 23% | 13% |
| 2001w | 45% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 31% | 8% | ||
| 2001lg | 17% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 24% | 10% |
| 1998a | 13% | 23% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 1% | 22% | 6% |
| 1997lg | 16% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 21% | 6% |
| 1997w | 36% | 14% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 24% | 5% | |
| 1996f | 15% | 23% | 6% | 10% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 21% | 6% |
See also: Full 2003 results from South Belfast | Full 1998 results from South Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your
comments,
please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 |
This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission. |
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.
|
Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
|