Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the southern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Castlereagh District Council. The MP since 2005 is Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP); he replaced the Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) who had retired. Smyth had represented South Belfast since a 1982 by-election caused by the IRA assassination of the previous incumbent. The SDLP hold two of the Assembly seats, with the DUP, UUP, Sinn Fein and Alliance on one each (Alliance gained a seat from the UUP in 2007; SF gained a seat from the Women's Coalition in 2003). The constituency was expanded a little in 1983 and rather more in 1995. See the 1983-92 South Belfast results, the 1973-82 South Belfast results and the 1950-1970 South Belfast results.

See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

The New Boundaries: Under the Boundary Commission's proposals, South Belfast is to gain four Castlereagh wards, Hillfoot and Wynchurch from East Belfast, and Carryduff East and Carryduff West from Strangford. This makes the new constituency 0.4% less Catholic, and 0.6% more Protestant than the old. This does not change the (already tight) electoral arithmetic much; the SDLP's defence of their Westminster seat will be a challenge, with their notional majority over the DUP now only 188 votes rather than 1235.

Projected results of recent elections on new boundaries

South Belfast's population in the 2001 census was 94,994 (9th of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 36.15 (8th highest).
• 35.63% described themselves as Catholic (10th of 18 constituencies); 17.32% as Presbyterian (10th highest), 14.63% as Church of Ireland (also 10th highest), 4.93% as Methodist (6th highest) and 5.58% as members of other Christian denominations (9th highest). 20.75% were "no religion or religion not stated" (3rd highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 41.36% Catholic (10th out of 18), 52.03% Protestants and other Christians (also 10th highest), 1.53% other religions and philosophies (highest in Northern Ireland) and 5.08% none (equal 2nd highest).

Results Table

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

This was the closest result in Northern Ireland in 2005, and the boundary commission changes make Alastair McDonnell's defence even tougher. On the other hand, it should be noted that the SDLP also topped the poll here, if narrowly, in both the 2007 Assembly and 2005 local government elections, even allowing for boundary changes.

2007 Assembly Election

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339 (32.3% +1.7%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104 (28.4%)
@Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263 (22.7% -22.1%)
@Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,882 (9.0% +1.4%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,012 (6.3% +0.9%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 235 (0.7% +0.4%)
Patrick Joseph Lynn (Workers Party) 193 (0.6% +0.1%)

@ Member of the Assembly

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP one. SF would be best placed to take the last seat.

2005 local government election (5 May)

SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would probably give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP and Alliance one each.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

* Outgoing member for South Belfast
# Outgoing member for West Belfast

SF gain from Monica McWilliams of the NIWC.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 59,436; votes cast: 38,185 (64.25%); spoilt votes: 233 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 37,952; UUP majority 5,399

* Outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

This was the first result to be declared in the 2001 election; fevered speculation than McDonnell might win on a split Unionist vote rapidly turned out to be as fanciful as most of the SDLP's predictions about this election. For the first time ever, less than half the voters of South Belfast voted Unionist. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP three seats and the SDLP two, with the last probably going to the Women's Coalition.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

Votes cast in 2001 were as follows:

UUP 11020.5 (29%)
SDLP 9052.4 (25%)
DUP 6274.1 (17%)
Alliance 4204 (11%)
SF 3803.1 (10%)
PUP 1517.5 (4%)
NIWC 947.8 (3%)
WP 201 (1%)
Cons 42.8 (0.1%)
UKUP 24.7 (0.1%)
Inds 341.7 (1%)
Total Valid 35410.5

There are three Unionist seats, which would go two to the UUP and one to the DUP. The SDLP have one seat for sure, but the last two seats would be very close between a second SDLP candidate, SF and Alliance.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from South Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

This was always the most likely place for the Women's Coalition to break through. A bitterly disappointing result for Alliance, whose Steve McBride came third in terms of first preference votes but was overtaken by four other candidates. On the final count he had 4,832 votes to Hanna's 4,983. There were 143 undistributed UUP votes from McGimpsey's and Birnie's surpluses, which would have gone a long way to making up the difference, so the effective margin of defeat was more on the order of 15 votes than 151.

1997 Local Government Election

Ulster Unionist Party 7,938.7 (26%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,422.8 (21%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,955.2 (16%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 4,480.2 (15%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,125.3 (7%)
Sinn Féin 1,714 (6%)
Women's Coalition 691.7 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 576.3 (2%)
Green Party 230 (1%)
Workers Party 198.3 (1%)
Conservative Party 71 (0.24%)
Natural Law Party 24 (0.08%)
Ulster Independence 7 (0.02%)
Eastr Belfast Labour 6.3 (0.02%)
Total Valid 31,155.4 (46.77% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 8,617 (23%); Robert Stoker, James Clarke elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,956 (21%); Alasdair McDonnell elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 5,818 (15%); Joan Parkes elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,689 (12%); Steve McBride elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 2,455 (6%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,321 (6%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,750 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1,666 (4%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition 947 (3%)
Labour (Lab) 333 (1%)
Green Party 314 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 279 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 270 (1%)
Democratic Partnership 133 (0.35%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 108 (0.29%)
Democratic Left (DL) 96 (0.25%)
Ulster Christian Democrat Party (UCD) 31 (0.08%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 5 (0.01%)

Electorate: 63,890; votes cast: 37,897 (59.3%); spoilt votes: 89 (0.2%); valid votes: 37,808

See also: Full 2003 results from South Belfast | Full 1998 results from South Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.