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| Maps and diagram by Conal Kelly | |
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This constituency takes in the southern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Castlereagh District Council. The MP since 2005 is Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP); he replaced the Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) who had retired. Smyth had represented South Belfast since a 1982 by-election caused by the IRA assassination of the previous incumbent. The SDLP hold two of the Assembly seats, with the DUP, UUP, Sinn Fein and Alliance on one each (Alliance gained a seat from the UUP in 2007; SF gained a seat from the Women's Coalition in 2003). See the 1983-92 South Belfast results, the 1973-82 South Belfast results and the 1950-1970 South Belfast results.
See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".
The constituency was expanded a little in 1983, rather more in 1995, and more again in 2009 when it gained four Castlereagh wards from East Belfast, and two from Strangford. This made the new constituency 0.4% less Catholic, and 0.6% more Protestant than the old.
South Belfast's population (on the old boundaries) in the 2001 census was 94,994 (9th of the 18 constituencies).
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2011a |
24.3% | 13.6% | 0.7% | 19.8% | 5.2% | 23.9% | 12.5% |
| 2011lg |
24.0% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 20.5% | 5.1% | 23.9% | 12.2% |
| 2010w | 23.7% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 41.0% | ||
| 2007a |
23.6% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 25.6% | 12.8% |
| 2005w | 29.6% | 22.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 30.1% | 9.0% | |
| 2005lg | 25.0% | 17.1% | 0.1% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 26.9% | 14.4% |
NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections
onto the new boundaries. Figures for the old boundaries can be
found at the bottom of the page.
NB also that the Conservatives got 0.4% in 2007 (on the old
boundaries) and supported the UUP in 2010.
| @Anna Lo (Alliance) 6,390 (19.8%) @Alasdair McDonnell MP (SDLP) 4,527 (14.0%) @Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 4,045 (12.5%) @Alex Maskey (SF) 4,038 (12.5%) Ruth Patterson (DUP) 3,800 (11.8%) @Conall McDevitt (SDLP) 3,191 (9.9%) @Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 2,988 (9.2%) Mark Finlay (UUP) 1,394 (4.3%) Clare Bailey (Green) 889 (2.8%) Brian Faloon (PBPA) 414 (1.3%) Paddy Meehan (Socialist) 234 (0.7%) Nico Torregrosa (UKIP) 234 (0.7%) Paddy Lynn (WP) 135 (0.4%) Charles Smyth (Pro-Capitalist) 29 (0.1%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
DUP 7,845 (24.3%, +0.7%)
1 seat SDLP 7,718 (23.9%, -1.7%) 2 seats Alliance 6,390 (19.8%, +6.8%) 1 seat UUP 4,382 (13.6%, -4.3%) 1 seat SF 4,038 (12.5%, -0.3%) 1 seat Green 889 (2.8%, +0.3%) PBPA 414 (1.3%) Socialist 234 (0.7%, -0.1%) UKIP 234 (0.7%) WP 135 (0.4%, +0.01%) Pro-Capitalism 29 (0.1%, +0.02%) Electorate 62,484 Votes cast 32,752 (52.4%); spoilt votes 444 (1.4%) Valid votes 32,308; quota 4,616 |
*@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP)
14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
@ Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
@Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Electorate: 59,524; Total Poll: 34,359 (57.7%); Invalid Votes: 173
(0.5%); Valid Votes: 34,186
* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency
An excellent result for the SDLP, who were helped by Sinn Féin's decision not to contest the seat, but on these figures would probably have won anyway. Unionist voters from 2005 seem to have simply not turned out this time, or supported Alliance instead. On these figures, the SDLP would probably win three Assembly seats, the other three going to DUP, UUP and Alliance.
| Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 4762
(15.7%) *Alasdair McDonnell MP (SDLP) 4379 (14.4%) *Alex Maskey (SF) 3996 (13.2%) Anna Lo (Alliance) 3829 (12.6%) *Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3748 (12.4%) *Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 2647 (8.7%) Christopher Stalford (DUP) 2035 (6.7%) *Esmond Birnie (UUP) 1804 (5.9%) Bobby Stoker (UUP) 1122 (3.7%) Brenda Cooke (Green) 737 (2.4%) Andrew Park (PUP) 410 (1.4%) David Hoey (UKUP) 298 (1.0%) James Barbour (Socialist) 248 (0.8%) Patrick Joseph Lynn (WP) 123 (0.4%) Roger Lomas (Conservative) 108 (0.4%) Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 66 (0.2%) Charles Smyth (Procapitalism) 22 (0.1%) Geoffrey Wilson (Independent) 10 (0.03%) *Elected in 2003 from South Belfast |
SDLP 8,127 (26.8%, +3.9%) 2 seats DUP 6,797 (22.4%, +1.6%) 1 seat UUP 5,573 (18.4%, -8.7%) 1 seat (-1) SF 3,996 (13.2%, +0.6%) 1 seat Alliance 3,829 (12.6%, +6.7%) 1 seat (+1) Green 737 (2.4%, +1.4%) PUP 410 (1.4%, -0.2%) UKUP 298 (1.0%) Socialist (0.8%, +0.3%) WP 123 (0.4%, +0.1%) Conservative 108 (0.4%, -0.01%) Rainbow George 66 (0.2%, +0.1%) Procapitalism 22 (0.1) Ind 10 (0.03%) Electorate 48,923 Votes cast 30,353 (62.4%); spoilt votes 189 (0.6%) Valid votes 30,344; quota 4,335 |
@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339 (32.3% +1.7%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104 (28.4%)
@Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263 (22.7% -22.1%)
@Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,882 (9.0% +1.4%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,012 (6.3% +0.9%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 235 (0.7%
+0.4%)
Patrick Joseph Lynn (Workers Party) 193 (0.6% +0.1%)
@ Member of the Assembly
In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP one. SF would be best placed to take the last seat.
SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)
In a six-seat STV election, these votes would probably give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP and Alliance one each.
| *Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 5389 (17.2%) *Mark Robinson (DUP) 3991 (12.7%) #Alex Maskey (SF) 3933 (12.6%) *Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3910 (12.5%) *Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 3266 (10.4%) Ruth Patterson (DUP) 2538 (8.1%) *Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2311 (7.4%) *Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 2150 (6.9%) Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 1185 (3.8%) John Hiddleston (UUP) 769 (2.5%) Tom Ekin (Alliance) 664 (2.1%) Thomas Morrow (PUP) 495 (1.6%) John Wright (Green) 308 (1.0%) James Barbour (Soc) 167 (0.5%) Roger Lomas (Con) 116 (0.4%) Patrick Lynn (WP) 96 (0.3%) Lindsay Steven (VFYS) 42 (0.1%) |
UUP 8,469 (27.0%, +3.6%) 2
seats SDLP 7,176 (22.9%, +1.2%) 2 seats DUP 6,529 (20.8%, +6.7%) 1 seat SF 3,933 (12.6%, +6.2%) 1 seat NIWC 2,150 (6.9%, -2.7%) Best result for NIWC in Northern Ireland Alliance 1,849 (5.9%, -4.1%) PUP 495 (1.6%, -3.6%) Green 308 (1.0%) Soc 167 (0.5%) Cons 116 (0.4%, +0.2%) WP 96 (0.3%, -0.1%) VFYP 42 (0.1%) Electorate 50,707 |
* Outgoing member for South Belfast
# Outgoing member for West Belfast
SF gain from Monica McWilliams of the NIWC.
South Belfast had lost 16.98% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from a whopping 41.60% in the Botanic ward of Belfast to 8.09% in the Knockbracken ward of Castlereagh. 16 constituencies lost fewer voters, only West Belfast lost more.Electorate: 59,436; votes cast: 38,185 (64.25%); spoilt votes:
233 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 37,952; UUP majority 5,399
* Outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly
This was the first result to be declared in the 2001 election; fevered speculation than McDonnell might win on a split Unionist vote rapidly turned out to be as fanciful as most of the SDLP's predictions about this election. For the first time ever, less than half the voters of South Belfast voted Unionist. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP three seats and the SDLP two, with the last probably going to the Women's Coalition.
Votes cast in 2001 were as follows:
UUP 11020.5 (29%)
SDLP 9052.4 (25%)
DUP 6274.1 (17%)
Alliance 4204 (11%)
SF 3803.1 (10%)
PUP 1517.5 (4%)
NIWC 947.8 (3%)
WP 201 (1%)
Cons 42.8 (0.1%)
UKUP 24.7 (0.1%)
Inds 341.7 (1%)
Total Valid 35410.5
There are three Unionist seats, which would go two to the UUP and one to the DUP. The SDLP have one seat for sure, but the last two seats would be very close between a second SDLP candidate, SF and Alliance.
| *Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 4,956
Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 4,938 *Steve McBride (All) 4,086 #Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 3,912 Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3,882 Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2,875 Mark Robinson (DUP) 2,872 Sean Hayes (SF) 2,605 Myreve Chambers (DUP) 2,449 Ernie Purvis (PUP) 2,112 David Adams (UDP) 1,745 *Jim Clarke (UUP) 1,720 Grant Dillon (UKU) 1,496 Wiliam Dixon (Unionist) 437 Boyd Black (Lab) 231 Paddy Lynn (WP) 176 Roger Lomas (C) 97 James Anderson (NLP) 73 Niall Cusack (Lab) 62 |
UUP 9,533
(23.41%) 2 seats SDLP 8,838 (21.70%) 2 seats DUP 5,321 (13.07%) 1 seat All 4,086 (10.03%) NI Women 3,912 (9.61%) 1 seat SF 2,605 (6.40%) PUP 2,112 (5.19%) UDP 1,745 (4.28%) UKU 1,496 (3.67%) Unionist 437 (1.07%) Lab 293 (0.72%) WP 176 (0.43%) C 97 (0.24%) NLP 73 (0.18%) Electorate: 61,209 |
* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from South Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.
This was always the most likely place for the Women's Coalition to break through. A bitterly disappointing result for Alliance, whose Steve McBride came third in terms of first preference votes but was overtaken by four other candidates. On the final count he had 4,832 votes to Hanna's 4,983. There were 143 undistributed UUP votes from McGimpsey's and Birnie's surpluses, which would have gone a long way to making up the difference, so the effective margin of defeat was more on the order of 15 votes than 151.
Ulster Unionist Party 7,938.7 (26%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,422.8 (21%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,955.2 (16%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 4,480.2 (15%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,125.3 (7%)
Sinn Féin 1,714 (6%)
Women's Coalition 691.7 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 576.3 (2%)
Green Party 230 (1%)
Workers Party 198.3 (1%)
Conservative Party 71 (0.24%)
Natural Law Party 24 (0.08%)
Ulster Independence 7 (0.02%)
Eastr Belfast Labour 6.3 (0.02%)
Total Valid 31,155.4 (46.77% of electorate)
* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 8,617 (23%); Robert Stoker, James
Clarke elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,956 (21%); Alasdair
McDonnell elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 5,818 (15%); Joan Parkes elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,689 (12%); Steve
McBride elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 2,455 (6%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,321 (6%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,750 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1,666 (4%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition 947 (3%)
Labour (Lab) 333 (1%)
Green Party 314 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 279 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 270 (1%)
Democratic Partnership 133 (0.35%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 108 (0.29%)
Democratic Left (DL) 96 (0.25%)
Ulster Christian Democrat Party (UCD) 31 (0.08%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 5 (0.01%)
Electorate: 63,890; votes cast: 37,897 (59.3%); spoilt votes: 89 (0.2%); valid votes: 37,808
| DUP | UUP | PUP | Oth U | Alliance | NIWC | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
22% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 13% | 4% | 27% | 13% | |
| 2005w | 28% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 32% | 9% | |||
| 2005lg | 25% | 20% | 1% | 13% | 4% | 27% | 10% | ||
| 2003a | 21% | 27% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 23% | 13% |
| 2001w | 45% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 31% | 8% | ||
| 2001lg | 17% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 24% | 10% |
| 1998a | 13% | 23% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 1% | 22% | 6% |
| 1997lg | 16% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 21% | 6% |
| 1997w | 36% | 14% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 24% | 5% | |
| 1996f | 15% | 23% | 6% | 10% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 21% | 6% |
See also: Full 2003 results from South Belfast | Full 1998 results from South Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
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This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission. |
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.
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Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
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