Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the western quarter of Belfast City Council and the Twinbrook and Poleglass estates in Lisburn District Council. The member of parliament is Gerry Adams (SF leader), who was first elected in 1983, defeating the previous incumbent (Gerry Fitt, former SDLP leader but by then an Independent Socialist). Adams retained the seat in 1987 but lost it narrowly to Joe Hendron (SDLP) in 1992. However he regained it convincingly in 1997, and his successful defence of the seat in 2001 and 2005 came as little surprise. Sinn Fein also hold five of the six Assembly seats, with the SDLP holding the last (SF gained a seat from the DUP in 2007, which the DUP had themselves gained from the SDLP in 2003). The constituency was slightly expanded in 1983 and rather more in 1995. See the 1983-1992 West Belfast results and the 1973-82 West Belfast results. 

See also the detailed guide by "Sammy Morse".

The New Boundaries: Under the Boundary Commission's proposals, West Belfast is to gain the Dunmurry ward and the northern part of the Derryaghy ward from Lagan Valley. This makes the new constituency 0.1% more Catholic, and 0.2% less Protestant, than the old. The electoral effects are fairly negligible.

West Belfast's population in the 2001 census was 87,610 (12th of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 33.10 (2nd lowest).
• 76.33% described themselves as Catholic (highest percentage of the 18 constituencies); 4.64% as Presbyterian (lowest), 6.23% as Church of Ireland (lowest), 1.07% as Methodist (15th highest) and 1.38% as members of other Christian denominations (lowest). 10.09% were "no religion or religion not stated" (13th highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 82.68% Catholic (highest), 16.22% Protestants and other Christians (lowest), 0.31% other religions and philosophies (12th highest) and 0.78% none (2nd lowest).

2007 Assembly Election

2005 Westminster results (5 May)

*@ Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) 24,348 (70.5%, +4.4%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,033 (14.6%, -4.3%)
@Diane Dodds (DUP) 3,652 (10.6% +4.2%)
@Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 779 (2.3% -3.9%)
John Lowry (WP) 432 (1.3% -0.5%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 154 (0.4% +0.2%)
Liam Kennedy (Independent) 147 (0.4%)
Valid Turnout 34,545 (64.2%)

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would put SF within spitting distance of five seats with the SDLP picking up the last. Any vote leakage from SF would increase the chances of the DUP winning a seat.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

Sinn Fein 22,659.8 (66.1%) - Best SF equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 5,751.9 (16.8%)
DUP 3,841.6 (11.2%)
UUP 739.9 (2.2%)
PUP 479.4 (1.4%)
WP 314 (0.9%)
Independents 476.4 (1.4%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, the SDLP one, and the DUP one. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast, so they are probably closer to the fifth seat (at the expense of the DUP) than these figures would suggest.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Reaction:Vote management is difficult when you have a lot of candidates. A more even split between McCann and Ramsey would have seen both elected, and SF taking five out of six. As it was Dodds sneaked in by 87 votes, the closest inter-party race of the election. De Brun resigned from the Assembly after her election to the European Parliament in 2004, and was replaced by Ramsay who had lost out so narrowly. Ferguson died in September 2006; as of the last update to this page, his seat was still vacant.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

A good result for SF; Adams got the highest vote in both absolute and percentage terms of any candidate in Northern Ireland. If this vote was repeated in a six-seat Assembly election, Sinn Fein would probably win five seats, and the SDLP would get the other one.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

SF 24358.4 (60%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 7913.1 (20%)
DUP 2515 (6%)
UUP 2235.1 (6%)
PUP 1289.4 (3%)
WP 488 (1%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
NIWC 365 (1%)
Alliance 136 (0.3%)
Ulster Third Way 16.8 (0.04%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
Independents 1163.8 (3%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, and the SDLP one. There would have been one Unionist seat, with the DUP best placed to win it. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from West Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

A strong result for Sinn Féin in their strongest constituency. The failure of even one Unionist candidate to win a seat is not all that surprising given recent voting patterns. Attwood finished with 5,350 votes and 350 surplus votes from Sinn Féin yet to be transferred, while McGimsey on 4,838 was still some way behind.

West Belfast had the highest percentage of spoilt votes in Northern Ireland at this election.

1997 Local Government Election

Sinn Féin 21,544.5 (59%) Best equivalent result for SF in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,241.5 (17%)
Ulster Unionist Party 2,442.3 (7%)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,842 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party 1,387.6 (4%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 889.4 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 720 (2%)
Workers Party 674 (2%)
Independent 251 (1%)
Independent Unionist 244.2 (1%)
Women's Coalition 90 (0.25%)
Total valid 36,326.5 (58.82%)

1997 Westminster Election

* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election

Sinn Féin (SF) 22,355 (53%); 4 seats (Gerry Adams, Dodie McGuinness, Alex Maskey, Annie Armstrong) Best result for SF in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 11,087 (26%); 1 seat (Joe Hendron)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,982 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 1,769 (4%)
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 1,489 (4%)
Workers Party (WP) 984 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 848 (2%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 340 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 319 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 252 (1%)
Green Party 156 (0.37%)
Conservative Party (Con) 60 (0.14%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 43 (0.10%)
Democratic Left (DL) 37 (0.09%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 36 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 30 (0.07%)
Communist Party of Ireland (CP) 28 (0.07%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 26 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 12 (0.03%)

Electorate: 61,344; votes cast: 42,026 (68.5%); spoilt votes: 173 (0.4%); valid votes: 41,853

Hendron had been elected to the 1975 Convention, and boht Hendron and Adams to the 1982 Assembly, from West Belfast.

See also: Full 1998 results from West Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 14 February 2007.