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| Maps and diagram by Conal Kelly | |
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This constituency takes in the western quarter of Belfast City Council and the Twinbrook and Poleglass estates in Lisburn District Council. The member of Parliament, since June 2011, has been Paul Maskey (SF); his predecessor was Gerry Adams (the SF leader), who was first elected in 1983, defeating the previous incumbent (Gerry Fitt, former SDLP leader but by then an Independent Socialist). Adams retained the seat in 1987 but lost it narrowly to Joe Hendron (SDLP) in 1992. However he regained it convincingly in 1997, and his successful defence of the seat in 2001, 2005 and 2010 came as little surprise. He resigned in early 2011 in order to contest a seat in the Dáil. Sinn Fein also hold five of the six Assembly seats, with the SDLP holding the last (SF gained a seat from the DUP in 2007, which the DUP had themselves gained from the SDLP in 2003). See the 1983-1992 West Belfast results and the 1973-82 West Belfast results.
See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".
The constituency was slightly expanded in 1983 and rather more in 1995, and again in 2010 when it gained the Dunmurry ward and the northern part of the Derryaghy ward from Lagan Valley. This made the new constituency 0.1% more Catholic, and 0.2% less Protestant, than the old.
West Belfast's population (on the old boundaries) in the 2001 census was 87,610 (12th of the 18 constituencies).
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2011wb |
6.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 70.6% | |
| 2011a |
7.5% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 66.1% | |
| 2011lg | 8.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 64.7% |
| 2010w | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 16.4% | 71.1% | ||
| 2007a |
10.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 4.6% | 13.8% | 68.6% | |
| 2005w | 10.8% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 16.0% | 68.6% | |
| 2005lg | 8.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 19.4% | 67.8% |
NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are
projections onto the new boundaries. Figures for the old
boundaries are at the bottom of this page.
| @Paul Maskey (SF) 5,343
(15.4%) @Jennifer McCann (SF) 5,239 (15.1%) @Fra McCann (SF) 4,481 (12.9%) @Sue Ramsey (SF) 4,116 (11.9%) @Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3,765 (10.9%) @Pat Sheehan (SF) 3,723 (10.7%) Brian Kingston (DUP) 2,587 (7.5%) Gerry Carroll (PBP) 1,661 (4.8%) Bill Manwaring (UUP) 1,471 (4.2%) Colin Keenan (SDLP) 802 (2.3%) John Lowry (WP) 586 (1.7%) Pat Lawlor (Socialist) 384 (1.1%) Dan McGuinness (Alliance) 365 (1.1%) Brian Pelan (Independent) 122 (0.4%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
SF 22,902 (66.1%, -3.8%)
5 seats SDLP 4,567 (13.2%, +1.0%) 1 seat DUP 2,587 (7.5%, -3.3%) PBP 1,661 (4.8%) UUP 1,471 (4.2%, +2.5%) WP 586 (1.7%, +0.4%) Socialist 384 (1.1%) Alliance 365 (1.1%, +0.7%) Independent 122 (0.4%) Electorate 61,520 Votes cast 35,618 (57.9%); spoilt 970 (2.7%) Valid votes: 34,648; quota 4,951 |
Looking at the first preferences, I had the idea
that the 11.7% total Unionist vote might float ahead of the SF
candidates, especially given the relative difficulty of ensuring
that Gerry Carroll's voters would be sufficiently disciplined
for the convenience of the Shinners' battle plan. But in the
end, if you have enough votes, balancing doesn't matter, and SF
had enough votes to keep all five seats, the SDLP retaining the
sixth, Pat Sheehan of SF finishing 460 votes ahead of the DUP.
*@Gerry Adams (Sinn
Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Electorate: 59,522; Total Poll: 32,682 (54.9%); Invalid Votes: 549
(1.7%); Valid Votes: 32,133
* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency
A solid performance from SF in their strongest seat. If those votes were cast in a six-seat Assembly election, SF would probably keep their five seats and the SDLP would retain their seat also.
| *Gerry Adams MP (SF) 6029
(17.8%) +Sue Ramsey (SF) 4715 (14.0%) Paul Maskey (SF) 4368 (12.9%) Jennifer McCann (SF) 4265 (12.6%) *Fra McCann (SF) 4254 (12.6%) *Diane Dodds (DUP) 3661 (10.8%) *Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3036 (9.0%) Margaret Walsh (SDLP) 1074 (3.2%) Seán Mitchell (People Before Profit Alliance) 774 (2.3%) Louis West (UUP) 558 (1.7%) John Lowry (WP) 434 (1.3%) Geraldine Taylor (RSF) 427 (1.3%) Daniel McGuinness (Alliance) 127 (0.4%) Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 68 (0.2%) *Elected in 2003 from West Belfast +Appointed to 2003-07 Assembly to fill a vacancy |
SF 23,631 (69.9%, +4.9%) 5
seats (+1) SDLP 4,110 (12.2%, -6.9%) 1 seat DUP 3,661 (10.8%, +3.1%) (-1) People Before Profit 774 (2.3%) UUP 558 (1.7%, -1.9%) WP 434 (1.3%, +0.05%) RSF 427 (1.3%) Alliance 127 (0.4%, +0.1%) Rainbow George 68 (0.2%) Electorate 50,792 Votes cast 34,238 (67.4%); spoilt votes 448 (1.3%) Valid votes 33,790; quota 4,828 |
*@ Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) 24,348 (70.5%, +4.4%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,033 (14.6%, -4.3%)
@Diane Dodds (DUP) 3,652 (10.6%, +4.2%)
@Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 779 (2.3% -3.9%)
John Lowry (WP) 432 (1.3% -0.5%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 154 (0.4%,
+0.2%)
Liam Kennedy (Independent) 147 (0.4%)
Valid Turnout 34,545 (64.2%)
* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly
If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would put SF within spitting distance of five seats with the SDLP picking up the last. Any vote leakage from SF would increase the chances of the DUP winning a seat.
Sinn Fein 22,659.8 (66.1%) - Best SF equivalent result in
Northern Ireland
SDLP 5,751.9 (16.8%)
DUP 3,841.6 (11.2%)
UUP 739.9 (2.2%)
PUP 479.4 (1.4%)
WP 314 (0.9%)
Independents 476.4 (1.4%)
Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, the SDLP one, and the DUP one. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast, so they are probably closer to the fifth seat (at the expense of the DUP) than these figures would suggest.
| *Gerry Adams
(SF) 6199 (18.9%) Fra McCann (SF) 4263 (13.0%) *Bairbre De Brun (SF) 4069 (12.4%) Michael Ferguson (SF) 3849 (11.7%) *Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3667 (11.2%) *Sue Ramsey (SF) 2988 (9.1%) *Joe Hendron (SDLP) 2583 (7.9%) Diane Dodds (DUP) 2544 (7.7%) Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1170 (3.6%) Hugh Smyth (PUP) 813 (2.5%) John Lowry (WP) 407 (1.2%) John MacVicar (Ind) 211 (0.6%) Kathryn Ayers (Alliance) 75 (0.2%) David Kerr (Ulster Third Way) 16 (0.0%) |
SF 21,368 (65.0%, +6.0%) 4
seats Best result for SF in Northern Ireland SDLP 6,250 (19.0%, -5.9%) 1 seat DUP 2,544 (7.7%, +4.5) 1 seat UUP 1,170 (3.6%, -0.3%) PUP 813 (2.5%, -2.7%) WP 407 (1.2%, -0.3%) Best result for WP in Northern Ireland Ind 211 (0.6%) Alliance 75 (0.2%, -0.10) UTW 16 (0.0%) Electorate 50,861 |
Reaction:Vote management is difficult when you have a lot of candidates. A more even split between McCann and Ramsey would have seen both elected, and SF taking five out of six. As it was Dodds sneaked in by 87 votes, the closest inter-party race of the election. De Brun resigned from the Assembly after her election to the European Parliament in 2004, and was replaced by Ramsay who had lost out so narrowly. Ferguson died in September 2006; as of the last update to this page, his seat was still vacant.
West Belfast had lost 18.56% of its electorate, more than any other constituency, in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 25.14% in the Falls ward of Belfast to 11.87% in Highfield, also in Belfast.* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly
A good result for SF; Adams got the highest vote in both absolute and percentage terms of any candidate in Northern Ireland. If this vote was repeated in a six-seat Assembly election, Sinn Fein would probably win five seats, and the SDLP would get the other one.
SF 24358.4 (60%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 7913.1 (20%)
DUP 2515 (6%)
UUP 2235.1 (6%)
PUP 1289.4 (3%)
WP 488 (1%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
NIWC 365 (1%)
Alliance 136 (0.3%)
Ulster Third Way 16.8 (0.04%) Best equivalent result in
Northern Ireland
Independents 1163.8 (3%)
Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, and the SDLP one. There would have been one Unionist seat, with the DUP best placed to win it. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast.
| *Gerry Adams (SF) 9,078
*Joe Hendron (SDLP) 6,140 Bairbre De Brun (SF) 4,711 *Alex Maskey (SF) 4,330 Alex Attwood (SDLP) 4,280 Sue Ramsey (SF) 3,946 Michael Ferguson (SF) 2,585 #Hugh Smyth (PUP) 2,180 Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1,640 Margaret Ferris (DUP) 1,345 Thomas Dalzell-Sheridan (UKUP) 666 John Lowry (WP) 607 Dan McGuinness (All) 129 Mary Cahillane (Pro-Agreement Socialist) 128 Michael Kennedy (NLP) 29 |
SF 24,650 (58.98%) 4 seats
Best result for SF in Northern Ireland SDLP 10,420 (24.93%) 2 seats PUP 2,180 (5.22%) UUP 1,640 (3.92%) DUP 1,345 (3.22%) UKU 666 (1.59%) WP 607 (1.45%) Alliance 129 (0.31%) Soc 128 (0.31%) NLP 29 (0.07%) Electorate: 60,669 |
* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from West Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.
A strong result for Sinn Féin in their strongest constituency. The failure of even one Unionist candidate to win a seat is not all that surprising given recent voting patterns. Attwood finished with 5,350 votes and 350 surplus votes from Sinn Féin yet to be transferred, while McGimsey on 4,838 was still some way behind.
West Belfast had the highest percentage of spoilt votes in Northern Ireland at this election.
Sinn Féin 21,544.5 (59%) Best equivalent result for SF
in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,241.5 (17%)
Ulster Unionist Party 2,442.3 (7%)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,842 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party 1,387.6 (4%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 889.4 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 720 (2%)
Workers Party 674 (2%)
Independent 251 (1%)
Independent Unionist 244.2 (1%)
Women's Coalition 90 (0.25%)
Total valid 36,326.5 (58.82%)
* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum
Sinn Féin (SF) 22,355 (53%); 4 seats (Gerry Adams, Dodie
McGuinness, Alex Maskey, Annie Armstrong) Best result for SF
in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 11,087 (26%); 1 seat
(Joe Hendron)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,982 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 1,769 (4%)
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 1,489 (4%)
Workers Party (WP) 984 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 848 (2%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 340 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 319 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 252 (1%)
Green Party 156 (0.37%)
Conservative Party (Con) 60 (0.14%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 43 (0.10%)
Democratic Left (DL) 37 (0.09%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 36 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 30 (0.07%)
Communist Party of Ireland (CP) 28 (0.07%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 26 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 12 (0.03%)
Electorate: 61,344; votes cast: 42,026 (68.5%); spoilt votes: 173 (0.4%); valid votes: 41,853
Hendron had been elected to the 1975 Convention, and both Hendron and Adams to the 1982 Assembly, from West Belfast.
| DUP | UUP | PUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
11% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 12% | 70% | ||
| 2005w | 11% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 70% | |||
| 2005lg | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 17% | 66% | ||
| 2003a | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 19% | 65% |
| 2001w | 6% | 6% | 2% | 19% | 66% | |||
| 2001lg | 6% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 20% | 60% | |
| 1998a | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 25% | 59% |
| 1997lg | 4% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 17% | 59% |
| 1997w | 3% | 2% | 39% | 56% | ||||
| 1996f | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 26% | 53% |
See also: Full 1998 results from West Belfast | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
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This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission. |
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 8 May 2010.
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Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
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