Lisburn and Castlereagh District Council

The new local authority is made up of the previous Lisburn district, losing about 20% of its voters to Belfast, and the previous Castlereagh district, losing about 40% of its voters, also to Belfast.

This saw the best single result for any individual party anywhere in this election, the DUP taking precisely half of the seats, and losing out on an overall majority by a 126 vote margin in Castlereagh East. To get to that position from only 40% of the vote is rather impressive; smaller Unionist parties (TUV, UKIP, PUP, Conservatives) got 11% of the vote between them but only one councillor, their transfers therefore swelling the overall Unionist pool.

Nationalist parties, whose vote collectively decreased across Northern Ireland for the first time ever in a local election, seemed particularly caught on the hop here, 12.7% of the vote giving them only three councillors, all from the SDLP; Sinn Fein's 4.7% got them nothing at all, though there were a couple of near-ish misses. The beneficiaries of Nationalist transfers were Alliance, who had fewer first preferences votes than the Nationalist Parties combined, but won more than twice as many seats.

This was the only council where NI21 won a seat, and the overall tally of 6.9%, with the strongest areas all in Lisburn, would on paper look decent enough as a platform for party leader Basil McCrea to retain his Lagan Valley seat in the Assembly. However, their spectacular meltdown on election day rather takes the shine off that success (which itself is rather relative).

map
Map by Conal Kelly



Summary

Electoral Area 2014 Results
Downshire East
3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Downshire West
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
Castlereagh East 3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 TUV
Lisburn South
4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Lisburn North 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 NI21
Killultagh 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Castlereagh East 2 Alliance, 2 SDLP, 2 DUP, 1 UUP
2014 Results 2011 Notional Results
Votes by Party:
DUP 18,520 (40.4%) 20 councillors
UUP 7,311 (16.0%) 8 councillors
Alliance 5,492 (12.0%) 7 councillors
SDLP 3,658 (8.0%) 3 councillors
NI21 3,173 (6.9%) 1 councillor
TUV 2,720 (5.9%) 1 councillor
SF 2,150 (4.7%)
UKIP 824 (1.8%)
Green 699 (1.5%)
PUP 695 (1.5%)
Conservatives 376 (0.8%)
Inds 169 (0.4%)


Votes by Party:
DUP: 22,217 (47.4%), 20 councillors
UUP: 8,021 (17.1%), 7 councillors
Alliance: 7,354 (15.7%), 6 councillors
SDLP: 4,232 (9.0%), 4 councillors
SF: 3,017 (6.4%) 3 councillors
Green: 945 (2.0%)
Cons: 332 (0.7%)
TUV: 282 (0.6%)
BNP: 154 (0.3%)
PBP: 50 (0.1%)
Ind: 288 (0.6%)

Electorate: 94,903; votes cast: 46,362 (48.9%); spoilt votes: 585 (1.3%); valid votes: 45,777(x%)


2011 Census: 32,296 "Catholic" (23.95%); 90,206 "Protestant" (66.90%); 1,442 Other (1.07%); 10,897 None (8.08%)

The 2011 notional results given above were my best guess projection of the 2011 votes onto the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather than a forecast. This was particularly difficult in this case, given the cross-cutting of old and new boundaries. I am pretty sure in retrospect that I overestimated the Nationalist vote in Lisburn North, where we commentators debated hotly whether there were one or two Nationalist seats; in the event, there were none. I still think that the SDLP and SF underperformed on their 2011 record, but I admit thht it's a debatable point.

See also results for:
Lisburn: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81

Castlereagh: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81.


Downshire East (5 seats)

Westminster seat: Lagan Valley
Includes these wards: Ballymacbrennan, Dromara, Drumbo, Hillhall, and Ravernet.

2014 

Luke Poots (DUP) 1,245
James Baird (UUP) 734
Uel Mackin (DUP) 734
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 691
Janet Gray (DUP) 480
Alex Swan (UUP) 432
Christina Dobson (NI21) 426
Tom Mateer (TUV) 413
Roy Young (DUP) 371
Glenn Wilson (NI21) 271
Peter Lindsay (UKIP) 199
DUP 2,830 (47.0%) 3 seats
UUP 1,166 (19.5%) 1 seat
NI21 697 (11.6%) - best NI21 result in Northern Ireland
Alliance 691 (11.5%) 1 seat
TUV 413 (6.9%)
UKIP 199 (3.3%)

Electorate 11,563; votes cast 6,062 (52.4%); spoilt votes 72 (1.2%); valid votes 5,990; quota: 1,000.

(Note to self - check this. Votes add to 5,996, not 5,990.)

McIntyre (Alliance) finished 20.40 votes ahead of Dobson (NI21). Although the two NI21 candidates began slightly ahead of Alliance, less than 200 of Wilson's 279 votes transferred to Dobson on elimination, and Alliance got 35, establishing a lead of over 100 which was then whittled down by DUP transfers.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, which was the actual result.


Downshire West (5 seats)

Westminster seat: Lagan Valley
Includes these wards: Blaris, Hillsborough, Lagan, Maze, and Moira.

2014

Jim Dillon (UUP) 912
Allan Ewart (DUP) 880
John Palmer (DUP) 768
Alexander Redpath (UUP) 671
Owen Gawith (Alliance) 493
Neil Johnston (Cons) 376
Colin Preen (DUP) 347
Jonny Miller (TUV) 335
Rebecca McBride (UKIP) 286
Dee French (SDLP) 231
Roger Duncan (NI21) 206
Neil McNickle (NI21) 148
Luke Robinson (Green) 119
DUP 1,995 (34.6%) 2 seats
UUP 1,583 (27.4%) 2 seats
Alliance 493 (8.5%) 1 seat
Cons 376 (6.5%)
NI21 354 (6.1%)
TUV 335 (5.8%)
UKIP 286 (5.0%)
SDLP 231 (4.0%)
Green 119 (2.1%)

Electorate 11,673; votes cast 5,832 (50.0%); spoilt votes 60 (1.0%); valid votes 5,772; quota: 963.

Johnston (Cons) finished a long way behind Gawith (Alliance), 367.17 votes. The initial gap between them of 117 had widened with SDLP and NI21 transfers. A DUP surplus of 117 and a UUP surplus of 9, which might have narrowed the gap, remained undistributed.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, so this is effectively a gain from the DUP by the UUP.


Castlereagh East (6 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast and Strangford
Includes these wards: Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler, Graham's Bridge, and Moneyreagh.

2014

Tommy Jeffers (DUP) 881
David Drysdale (DUP) 823
Sharon Skillen (DUP) 787
Lynda Spratt (DUP) 700
Andrew Girvin (TUV) 683
Hazel Legge (UUP) 580
Tim Morrow (Alliance) 521
Izzy Giles (PUP) 492
Martin Gregg (Green) 442
Stephen Donnan (Alliance) 301
Mark Devenney (NI21) 241
Robert Campbell (Independent) 75
Sandra Wilson (Independent) 61
DUP 3,191 (48.4%) 3 seats
Alliance 822 (12.5%) 1 seat
TUV 683 (10.4%) 1 seat
UUP 580 (8.8%) 1 seat
PUP 492 (7.5%)
Green 442 (6.7%)
NI21 241 (3.7%)
Inds 136 (2.1%)

Electorate 13,645; votes cast 6,690 (49.0%); spoilt votes 103 (1.5%); valid votes 6,587; quota: 942.

Spragg (DUP) finished 126 votes behind Legge (UUP), who had benefited from Green/Alliance transfers.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 4 DUP, 2 Alliance; this can be seen as a gain for both TUV and the UUP from the other two parties.


Lisburn South (6 seats)

Westminster seat: Lagan Valley
Includes these wards: Ballymacash, Mallymacoss, Knockmore, Lagan Valley, Lisnagarvey, and Old Warren.

2014

Tim Mitchell (UUP) 874
Alan Givan (DUP) 813
Paul Porter (DUP) 768
Andrew Ewing (DUP) 696
Rhoda Walker (DUP) 565
Alan Carlisle (DUP) 494
Andrew Moore (TUV) 469
David Cairns (NI21) 442
Amanda Grehan (Alliance) 430
Conor Quinn (SDLP) 423
James McMurray (Green) 138
Andrew Doran (NI21) 115
DUP 3,336 (53.6%) 4 seats - DUP's best vote share in NI
UUP 874 (14.0%) 1 seat
NI21 557 (8.9%)
TUV 469 (7.5%)
Alliance 430 (6.9%) 1 seat
SDLP 423 (6.8%)
Green 128 (2.2%)

Electorate 14,566; votes cast 6,321 (43.4%); spoilt votes 94 (1.5%); valid votes 6,227; quota: 890.

Grehan (Alliance) finished 29.92 votes ahead of Cairns (NI21), with a DUP surplus of 28 not distributed (which would have made little difference). The turning point was the elimination of the SDLP, of whose 438 votes 238 went to Alliance and only 89 to NI21, reversing the margin between them.

One can speculate that if NI21 had run a single candidate they might have won the non-Unionist seat here.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, which was the actual result.

Lisburn North (6 seats)

Westminster seat: Lagan Valley
Includes these wards: Derryaghy, Harmony Hill, Hilden, Lambeg, Magheralave, and Wallace Park.

2014 

Brian Bloomfield (UUP) 1,026
Margaret Tolerton (DUP) 735
Stephen Martin (Alliance) 711
Scott Carson (DUP) 684
Jenny Palmer (DUP) 534
Yvonne Craig (DUP) 526
Jacqui McGeough (SF) 493
Nicola Turtle (SDLP) 466
Alan Love (UKIP) 339
Johnny McCarthy (NI21) 329
John McCall (TUV) 300
Colin McCord (NI21) 237
Matt Brennan (PUP) 203
Jonny Orr (Independent) 33
DUP 2,479 (37.47) 3 seats
UUP 1,026 (16.0%) 1 seat
Alliance 711 (10.7%) 1 seat
NI21 566 (8.6%) 1 seat
SF 493 (7.5%)
SDLP 466 (7.0%)
UKIP 339 (5.1%)
TUV 300 (4.5%)
PUP 203 (3.1%)
Ind 33 (0.5%)

Electorate 14,284; votes cast 6,725 (47.1%); spoilt votes 109 (1.6%); valid votes 6,616; quota: 946.

In the closest result of the election, Palmer (DUP) beat her running mate Craig (also DUP) by 3.3 votes.

McCarthy (NI21) rose from tenth place to win the fourth seat largely thanks to Nationalist transfers. On the sixth count, Turtle (SDLP) was less than 14 votes behind McGeough (SF) when she was eliminated, with 208 of her 484 votes goiing to Alliance (electing Martin, and going on to elect McCarthy), 126 to SF and 30 directly to NI21. If SF had been behind the SDLP at that stage, their transfers would almost certainly have given the SDLP the second non-Unionist seat.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, and Faha 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP. Both were well off the mark with respect to the strength of the Nationalist parties (and so was I).


Killultagh (5 seats)

Westminster seat: Lagan Valley
Includes these wards: Ballinderry, Glenavy, Maghaberry, Stonyford, and White Mountain.

2014

Thomas Beckett (DUP) 1,216
Robbie Butler (UUP) 1,180
James Tinsley (DUP) 864
Mary Kate Quinn (SF) 854
William Leathem (DUP) 809
Patrick Catney (SDLP) 698
Jonnie McCrea (Alliance) 455
David Honeyford (NI21) 399
DUP 2,889 (44.6%) 3 seats
UUP 1,180 (18.2%) 1 seat
SF 854 (13.2%)
SDLP 698 (10.8%) 1 seat
Alliance 455 (7.0%)
NI21 399 (6.2%)

Electorate 12,863; votes cast 6,534 (50.8%); spoilt votes 59 (0.9%); valid votes 6,475; quota: 1,080.

Quinn (SF) finished 117.85 votes behind Tinsley (DUP) on the last count. Catney (SDLP) started 156 votes behind her with less than two-thirds of a quota, but took 297 of 654 Alliance transfers on the last count, Quinn getting only 30, which won him the Nationalist seat.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, and Faha 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance. Either way it's a good result for the DUP and a disappointing one for Alliance and SF.


Castlereagh South (7 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast, South Belfast, and Strangford
Includes these wards: Beechill, Cairnshill, Carryduff East, Carryduff West, Galwally, Knockbracken, and Newtownbreda.

2014

Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 1,221
John Gallen (SDLP) 964
Nathan Anderson (DUP) 942
Michael Henderson (UUP) 902
Brian Hanvey (SDLP) 876
Nuala Toman (SF) 803
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 669
Wallace Douglas (TUV) 520
Ben Mallon (DUP) 499
Vikki Nelson (DUP) 359
Elizabeth McCord (NI21) 290
Adam Murray (NI21) 69
Alliance 1,890 (23.0%) 2 seats
SDLP 1,840 (22.7%) 2 seats
DUP 1,800 (22.2%) 2 seats
UUP 902 (11.1%) 1 seat
SF 803 (9.9%)
TUV 520 (6.4%)
NI21 359 (4.4%)

Electorate 16,309; votes cast 8,198 (50.3%); spoilt votes 88 (1.1%); valid votes 8,110; quota: 1,015.

Hanvey (SDLP) finished 108.39 votes ahead of Toman (SF). Two DUP surpluses totalling 81 votes remained undistributed; this would have widened the margin a bit.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 SDLP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, which was the actual result. Faha projected 3 SDLP, 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, which would certainly have been a possible outcome if the SDLP had had a third candidate..



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