Belfast City Council Elections, 2014

The new Belfast City Council comprises of the entire original authority, plus 20% of Lisburn, 40% of Castlereagh, and the very small Cedar Grove area from North Down.

The expanded Belfast now has 27 Nationalists, 24 Unionists, and 9 other councillors (8 Alliance and 1 Green) holding the balance of power. The elections delivered much the same result as I had projected for the previous poll in 2011, with gains for the UUP and the smaller parties - with some very tight squeaks.

map
Map by Belfast Telegraph



Summary

Electoral Area 2014 Results
Ormiston 2 Alliance, 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Green
Titanic 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 PUP
Lisnasharragh 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Court 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 PUP, 1 TUV
Botanic 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
Castle 1 SF, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Balmoral 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP
Oldpark 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 PUP
Collin 5 SF, 1 SDLP
Black Mountain
5 SF, 1 PBP, 1 SDLP
2014 Results 2011 Notional Results
Votes by Party:
SF 31,822 (29.2%), 19 councillors
DUP 20,751 (19.0%), 13 councillors
Alliance 12,478 (11.4%), 8 councillors
SDLP 10,892 (10.0%), 7 councillors
UUP 9,804 (9.0%), 7 councillors
PUP 7,096 (6.5%), 3 councillors
NI21 2,953 (2.7%)
TUV 2,883 (2.6%), 1 councillor
Green 2,524 (2.3%), 1 councillor
Éirígí 1,756 (1.6%)
People Before Profit 1,691 (1.6%), 1 councillor
UKIP 1,162 (1.1%)
Independents 1,152 (1.1%)
Workers' Party 985 (0.9%)
Republican Network for Unity 502 (0.5%)
Conservative 361 (0.3%)
Socialist Party 272 (0.2%)
Votes by Party:
SF: 34,280 (31.2%), 19 councillors
DUP: 26,333 (24.0%), 17 councillors
Alliance: 14,605 (13.3%), 9 councillors
SDLP: 14,596 (13.3%), 8 councillors
UUP: 9,363 (8.5%) 6 councillors
PUP: 2,893 (2.6%) 1 councillor
Eirígí: 2,062 (1.9%)
Green: 1,476 (1.3%)
WP: 760 (0.7%)
TUV: 601 (0.5%)
IRSP: 588 (0.5%)
SPNI: 434 (0.4%)
PBP: 364 (0.3%)
Cons: 139 (0.1%)
BNP: 51 (0.05%)
Procap: 9 (0.01%)
Ind: 1,274 (1.2%)

Electorate: 206,873; votes cast: 111,174 (53.7%); spoilt votes: 2090 (1.9%); valid votes: 109,084

2011 Census: 163,006 "Catholic" (48.82%); 141,790 "Protestant" (42.47%); 5,238 Other (1.57%); 23,837 None (7.14%)

The notional results given above are my best guess projection of the 2011 results on the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather than a forecast. 

See also results for:
Belfast: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81


Ormiston (7 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast
Includes these wards: Belmont, Garnerville, Gilnahirk, Knock, Sandown, Shandon, and Stormont.

2014

Jim Rodgers (UUP) 1,899
Mervyn Jones (Alliance) 1,184
Tom Haire (DUP) 1,072
Ross McMullan (Alliance) 899
Laura McNamee (Alliance) 898
Ross Brown (Green) 831
John Hussey (DUP) 821
Denny Vitty (DUP) 809
Brian Kennedy (DUP) 750
Ian Shanks (PUP) 720
John Hiddleston (TUV) 640
Peter Johnston (UUP) 622
Stephen Crosby (UKIP) 618
Andrew Webb (Alliance) 561
Ian Dickson (NI21) 245
Jayne Olorunda (NI21) 192
Ian Reid (Conservative) 162
Michael McMillan (SDLP) 95
Laura Keenan (SF) 56
Alliance 3,542 (27.1%) 2 seats - best Alliance result in Northern Ireland
DUP 3,452 (26.4%) 2 seats
UUP 2,521 (19.3%) 2 seats
Green 831 (6.4%) 1 seat
PUP 720 (5.5%)
TUV 640 (4.9%)
UKIP 618 (4.7%)
NI21 437 (3.3%)
Cons 162 (1.2%)
SDLP 95 (0.7%)
SF 56 (0.4%)

Electorate: 20,881; total poll: 13,192 (63.1%); invalid votes 118 (0.9%); valid votes: 13,074; quota 1,635.

Vitty (DUP) finished 172.45 votes behind Brown (Green), with a UUP surplus of 4.76 undistributed. A perfect balance between the top three Alliance candidates could have seen them keep the Greens out, but on the 10th count McMullan was 56.7 votes behind Brown, with both Jones and McNamee 300 or so ahead.

There isn't usually much need to comment on the numbers below the box, but the high turnout and low rate of spoiled votes here are both pretty remarkable.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 3 Alliance, 1 UUP, so this can be counted as UUP and Green notional gains from the two larger parties.

Titanic (6 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast
Includes these wards: Ballymacarrett, Beersbridge, Bloomfield, Connswater, Sydenham, and Woodstock.

2014

Sonia Copeland (UUP) 1,651
Niall Ó Donnghaile (SF) 1,156
John Kyle (PUP) 1,150
Gavin Robinson (DUP) 1,148
Adam Newton (DUP) 1,017
David Armitage (Alliance) 780
Máire Hendron (Alliance) 719
Harry Toan (TUV) 578
Jonny Lavery (UKIP) 544
Sam White (DUP) 416
Jimmy Davidson (NI21) 252
Gregor Claus (Green) 212
Tommy Black (Socialist Party) 108
Peter Devlin (SDLP) 99
Kevin McNally (Workers' Party) 70
DUP 2,581 (26.1%) 2 seats
UUP 1,651 (16.7%) 1 seat
Alliance 1,499 (15.1%) 1 seat
SF 1,156 (11.7%) 1 seat
PUP 1,150 (11.6%) 1 seat
TUV 578 (5.8%)
UKIP 544 (5.5%)
NI21 252 (2.5%)
Green 212 (2.1%)
Socialist 108 (1.1%)
SDLP 99 (1.0%)
WP 70 (0.7%)

Electorate: 21,425; total poll: 10,082 (47.1%); invalid votes 182 (1.8%); valid votes: 9,900; quota 1,415.

Hendron (Alliance) finished 101.82 behind Armitage (also Alliance), with a PUP surplus of 39 and DUP surpluses totalling 16 left undistributed.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 PUP, and Faha projected 3 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 PUP, so this can be counted a notional SF gain from Alliance and possibly a UUP gain from the DUP.

Lisnasharragh (6 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast and East Belfast
Includes these wards: Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok, Orangefield, Ravenhill, and Rosetta.

2014


Michael Long (Alliance) 1,726
Aileen Graham (DUP) 1,546
Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1,362
Tommy Sandford (DUP) 980
Colin Hussey (DUP) 916
Kate Mullan (SDLP) 878
Carole Howard (Alliance) 860
Dermot Kennedy (SF) 637
Helen Smyth (PUP) 630
Connal Hughes (Green) 485
Leah McDonnell (NI21) 315
Pete Wray (NI21) 162
DUP 3,442 (32.8%) 2 seats
Alliance 2,586 (24.6%) 2 seats
UUP 1,362 (13.0%) 1 seat
SDLP 878 (8.4%) 1 seat
SF 637 (6.1%)
PUP 630 (6.0%)
Green 485 (4.6%)
NI21 477 (4.5%)
Electorate: 20,089;total poll: 10,656 (53.0%); invalid votes 159 (1.5%); valid votes: 10,497; quota 1,500.

Hussey (DUP) finished 202.01 votes behind Sandford (also DUP), with an undistributed Alliance surplus (originating from SF!) of 47.5.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, whch was the actual result.


Court (6 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast and North Belfast
Includes these wards: Ballygomartin, Clonard, Falls, Forth River, Shankill, and Woodvale..

2014

Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 1,674
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 1,557
Mary McConville (SF) 1,400
Jim McVeigh (SF) 1,357
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1,134
Jolene Bunting (TUV) 839
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 651
Billy Mawhinney (PUP) 607
Colin Keenan (SDLP) 563
Nicola Verner (DUP) 516
Naomi Thompson (DUP) 365
John Lowry (Workers' Party) 296
Tommy Doherty (Republican Network for Unity) 282
Sheila Gallagher (Alliance) 129
Stuart Hunter (NI21) 117
Willie Faulkner (Independent) 18
DUP 3,572 (31.0%) 2 seats
SF 2,757 (24.0%) 2 seats
PUP 2,281 (19.8%) 1 seat - best PUP result in Northern Ireland
TUV 839 (7.3%) 1 seat
UUP 651 (5.7%)
SDLP 563 (4.9%)
WP 296 (2.6%)
Republican 282 (2.5%)
Alliance 129 (1.1%)
NI21 117 (1.0%)
Independent 18 (0.2%)

Electorate: 20,881; total poll: 11,809 (56.6%); invalid votes 304 (2.6%); valid votes 11,505; quota 1,644.

The published results sheet shows Manwaring (UUP) as only 17.36 votes behind Bunting (TUV) on the final count, with an SF surplus of 88 (transferred to McConville from the SDLP's Keenan) undistributed. Granted, it is unlikely that these transfers would have helped Manwaring - most of them would have been aborbed by McVeigh (SF), who was still 97 votes short of the quota. But it is an odd incompleteness in the record.

Better balancing from the DUP would certainly have given them a good chance of winning all three Unionist seats.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP plus 1 Ind (McCoubrey, who had meantime joined the DUP), 2 SF. This could therefore be seen as TUV and PUP gains from the DUP, taking into account McCoubrey's change of allegiance.


Botanic (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast
Includes these wards: Blackstaff, Central, Ormeau, Stranmillis, and Windsor.

2014

Deirdre Hargey (SF) 1,326
Ruth Patterson (DUP) 1,268
Declan Boyle (SDLP) 971
Emmet McDonough-Brown (Alliance) 843
Clare Bailey (Green) 772
Graham Craig (UUP) 766
Duncan Morrow (Alliance) 769
Patrick McCarthy (SDLP) 530
Billy Dickson (TUV) 509
Ewan Suttie (PUP) 351
Eileen Chan-Hu (NI21) 261
Ben Matthews (NI21) 233
Paddy Meehan (Socialist Party) 164
Ben Manton (Conservative) 125
Paddy Lynn (Workers' Party) 106
Alliance 1,612 (17.9%) 1 seat
SDLP 1,501 (16.7%) 1 seat
SF 1,326 (14.7%) 1 seat
DUP 1,268 (14.1%) 1 seat
Green 772 (8.6%)
UUP 766 (8.5%) 1 seat
TUV 509 (5.7%)
PUP 351 (3.9%)
NI21 494 (5.5%)
Socialist 164 (1.8%)
Cons 125 (1.4%)
WP 106 (1.2%)

Electorate: 19,462; total poll: 9,186 (47.2%); invalid votes 192 (2.1%); valid votes 8,994; quota 1,500.

Bailey (Green) finished 126.80 votes behind Craig (UUP). There were just over two Unionist quotas at the outset, and TUV transfers pulled Craig decisively ahead.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected
1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, which was the actual result.


Castle (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Belfast
Includes these wards: Bellevue, Cavehill, Chichester Park, Duncairn, Fortwilliam, and Innisfayle.

2014

Mary Ellen Campbell (SF) 1,619
Guy Spence (DUP) 1,339
Lydia Patterson (DUP) 1,276
Patrick Convery (SDLP) 1,197
David Browne (UUP) 1,133
Tierna Cunningham (SF) 1,038
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 1,020
William McQuade (PUP) 657
Cathal Mullaghan (SDLP) 554
Alison Crawford (NI21) 336
Fra Hughes (Independent) 218
Gemma Weir (Workers' Party) 191
SF 2,657 (25.1%) 1 seat
DUP 2,615 (24.7%) 2 seats
SDLP 1,751 (16.6%) 1 seat
UUP 1,133 (10.7%) 1 seat
Alliance 1,020 (9.6%) 1 seat
PUP 657 (6.2%)
NI21 336 (3.2%)
Ind 218 (2.1%)
WP 191 (1.8%)

Electorate: 20,977; total poll: 10,573 (51.3%); invalid votes 175 (1.6%); valid votes 10,578; quota 1,512.

Cunningham (SF) finished 112.63 votes behind Browne (UUP), himself only 5 behind Patterson (DUP), with an Alliance surplus of 37 undistributed. The DUP balance was very impressive, the initial 63-vote margin between their candidates narrowing to 27 at the end, and better balancing by SF probably would not have made a difference; in the end the votes and transfers weren't there.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, so this can be counted a notional Alliance gain from SF.


Balmoral (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast
Includes these wards: Belvoir, Finaghy, Malone, Musgrave, and Upper Malone.

2014

Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 1,525
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 1,524
Christopher Stalford (DUP) 968
Sarah Clarke (DUP) 950
Jeffrey Dudgeon (UUP) 878
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 806
Justin Cartwright (SDLP) 589
Simon Rice (PUP) 533
Jamie Doyle (Alliance) 430
Tina McKenzie (NI21) 256
Elli Kontorravdis (Green) 224
Barbara Neeson (NI21) 74
David Timson (Conservative) 74
Gerard Collins (Independent) 70
SDLP 2,113 (23.7%) 1 seat
DUP 1,918 (21.5%) 1 seat
SF 1,525 (17.1%) 1 seat
Alliance 1,236 (13.9%) 1 seat
UUP 878 (9.9%) 1 seat
PUP 533 (6.0%)
NI21 330 (3.7%)
Green 224 (2.5%)
Conservative 74 (0.8%)
Independent 70 (0.8%)

Electorate: 17,107; total poll: 9,032 (52.8%); invalid votes 131 (1.5%); valid votes 8,901; quota 1,484.

Clarke (DUP) was 101.3 votes behind Dudgeon (UUP) on the last count, with Stalford (also DUP) 64.96 ahead of her - so a perfect DUP balance would not have been enough to win two seats.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 UUP, which was the actual result.


Oldpark (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Belfast
Includes these wards: Ardoyne, Ballysillan, Cliftonville, Legoniel, New Lodge, and Water Works.

2014

Mary Clarke (SF) 1,559
J.J. Magee (SF) 1,240
Gerry McCabe (SF) 1,207
Gareth McKee (DUP) 1,139
Nichola Mallon (SDLP) 923
Dee Fennell (Independent) 846
Julie-Anne Corr (PUP) 774
Lee Reynolds (DUP) 764
John Loughran (SF) 697
Colin Houston (UUP) 366
Peter McReynolds (Alliance) 320
Wayne Gilmour (TUV) 317
Sammy Cusick (Republican Network for Unity) 220
Christopher Bailie (Workers' Party) 163
SF 4,703 (44.6%) 3 seats
DUP 1,903 (18.1%) 1 seat
SDLP 923 (8.8%) 1 seat
Ind 846 (8.0%)
PUP 774 (7.3%) 1 seat
UUP 366 (3.5%)
Alliance 320 (3.0%)
TUV 317 (3.0%)
Republican 220 (2.1%)
WP 163 (1.5%)

Electorate: 20,888; total poll: 10,793 (51.7%); invalid votes 258 (2.4%); valid votes 10,535; quota 1,506.

Fennell (Ind) finished 161.14 votes behind Mallon (SDLP), with an SF surplus of 121 undistributed which might have narrowed the margin.

Corr's winning a seat from barely half a quota of first preferences looks impressive at first sight, but in fact there were 2.2 Unionist quotas, and given the DUP's poor balancing the second seat was always likely to go to the strongest placed of the rest; Corr's ten-vote margin over Reynolds (DUP) on the first count was also boosted by TUV and UUP transfers.

Better balancing between the SF candidates could have kept all four ahead of Fennell (Ind), and they might then have benefited from his transfers sufficiently to out-distance Mallon (SDLP) for the fourth Nationaliost seat - but it would have been very tight at the end.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 SF, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, so this can probably be counted as a notional PUP gain from the DUP.


Collin (6 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast
Includes these wards: Dunmurry, Ladybrook, Lagmore, Poleglass, Stewartstown, and Twinbrook.

2014

David Bell (SF) 1,669
Stephen Magennis (SF) 1,618
Charlene O'Hara (SF) 1,476
Matt Garrett (SF) 1,452
Bill Groves (SF) 1,308
Brian Heading (SDLP) 1,067
Máire Drumm (Éirígí) 730
Laura Whinnery (SDLP) 511
Gareth Martin (UUP) 476
Wendy Burke (NI21) 427
Gerard Catney (Alliance) 424
SF 7,523 (67.4%) 5 seats
SDLP 1,578 (14.1%) 1 seat
Éirígí 730 (6.5%)
UUP 476 (4.3%)
NI21 427 (3.8%)
Alliance 424 (3.8%)

Electorate: 20,017; total poll: 11,360 (51.6%); invalid votes 202 (1.8%); valid votes 11,158; quota 1,512.

Burke (NI21) was a pretty massive 620.87 votes behind Groves (SF) on the final count, with an SDLP surplus of 29 and SF surpluses totalling 177 undistributed. She had done well to suvive that far, outlasting three other candidates who had gained more first preferences - Alliance transfers pulled her ahead of the UUP, and UUP transfers then put her ahead of both Éirígí and the SDLP's second runner.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 5 SF, 1 SDLP, which was the actual result.


Black Mountain (7 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast
Includes these wards: Andersonstown, Ballymurphy, Beechmount, Collin Glen, Falls Park, Shaw's Road, and Turf Lodge.

2014

Steven Corr (SF) 1,793
Janice Austin (SF) 1,784
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1,691
Emma Groves (SF) 1,628
Arder Carson (SF) 1,509
Caoimhín Mhic Giolla Mhin (SF) 1,428
Ciarán Beattie (SF) 1,340
Tim Atwood (SDLP) 1,258
Pádraic MacCoitir (Éirígí) 1,026
Joanne Lowry (Workers' Party) 159
Gerard McDonald (SDLP) 133
Lauren Gray (Alliance) 110
Chris Valente (NI21) 83
SF 9,482 (68.0%) 5 seats - best SF result in Northern Ireland
PBP 1,691 (12.1%) 1 seat
SDLP 1,391 (10.0%) 1 seat
Éirígí 1,026 (7.4%)
WP 159 (1.1%)
Alliance 110 (0.8%)
NI21 83 (0.6%)

Electorate: 25,146; total poll: 14,311 (56.9%); invalid votes 369 (2.6%); valid votes 13,492; quota 1,743.

Mhic Giolla Mhin (SF) was only 8.43 votes behind Beattie (SF) on the final count, but was 104 behind Attwood (SDLP). A perfect balance between all six SF candidates could in theory have kept Attwood out, but it would have required an implausible level of finesse.

Irish Observer projected 6 SF, 1 SDLP, and Faha projected 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Éirígí, so it can be debated who PBP made their gain from.


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