East Belfast


Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the eastern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Castlereagh District Council. The member of parliament has been Peter Robinson (DUP deputy leader) since he defeated Bill Craig, the former Vanguard leader who had then joined the UUP, in 1979. The DUP hold three Assembly seats, and the UUP, Alliance and the PUP one each (the DUP gained a seat from the UUP in 2007). See also 1983-1992 East Belfast results, 1973-82 East Belfast results and 1950-70 East Belfast results.

The New Boundaries: East Belfast loses two Castlereagh wards, Hillfoot and Wynchurch, to South Belfast (essentially shifting that part of the boudary a mile and a half north), and gains five Castlereagh wards, Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham's Bridge, from Strangford (essentially the town and surroundings of Dundonald). This makes the new constituency 2.3% less Catholic, and 2.4% more Protestant, than the old. The electoral effects are fairly negligible, other than to slightly boost the DUP's already strong position.

Projected results of recent elections on new boundaries

	DUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	41.5%	22.0%	9.8%		17.4%	4.6%	2.2%	2.6%
2005w	52.4%	29.5%			11.1%	2.5%	2.1%	2.4%
2005lg	45.9%	24.6%	4.9%	1.5%	16.0%	1.7%	3.0%	2.4%

East Belfast's population in the 2001 census was 79,621 (lowest of the 18 constituencies).

The average age was 39.988 (highest of the 18 constituencies).
7.49% described themselves as Catholic (lowest of the 18 constituencies); 29.98% as Presbyterian (6th highest), 21.79% as Church of Ireland (4th highest), 9.16% as Methodist (highest in Northern Ireland) and 10.69% as members of other Christian denominations (also highest in Northern Ireland). 21.59% were "no religion or religion not stated" (2nd highest).
The translation into "Community background" was 9.86% Catholic (lowest), 84.62% Protestants and other Christians (highest), 0.44% other religions and philosophies (4th highest) and 5.08% none (equal 2nd).

Results Table

	DUP	UKUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	38%		22%	10%	1%	19%	3%	3%	4%
2005w	49%		30%		1%	12%	1%	3%	3%
2005lg	43%		25%	5%	1%	17%	2%	5%	2%
2003a	39%		33%	10%	1%	9%	1%	3%	4%
2001w	43%		23%	10%	2%	16%	1%	2%	3%
2001lg	36%	1%	29%	7%	1%	16%	4%	4%	3%
1998a	31%	3%	24%	14%	2%	18%	3%	3%	2%
1997lg	36%	1%	28%	6%	3%	20%	2%	2%	2%
1997w	42%		25%		2%	24%	2%	2%	2%
1996f	29%	7%	22%	10%	4%	19%	3%	3%	2%

2010 Westminster election

The DUP have had a long winning streak here; there is some hopeful thinking from their rivals that Robinson's domestic travails may damage him, but he has quite a substantial cushion of votes to sustain him, bossted slightly by the boundary changes.

2007 Assembly election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Peter Robinson MP (DUP) 5635 (19.0%)
*Naomi Long (Alliance) 5583 (18.8%)
*[Sir] Reg Empey (UUP) 4139 (14.0%)
Wallace [Lord] Browne (DUP) 3185 (10.7%)
+Dawn Purvis (PUP) 3045 (10.3%)
*Robin Newton (DUP) 2335 (7.9%)
*Michael Copeland (UUP) 1557 (5.3%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (SF) 1055 (3.6%)
Jim Rodgers (UUP) 820 (2.8%)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 816 (2.8%)
Stephen Agnew (Green) 653 (2.2%)
Glyn Chambers (Conservative) 427 (1.4%)
Thomas Black (Socialist Party) 225 (0.8%)
Joe Bell (Workers Party) 107 (0.4%)
Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 47 (0.2%)

*Elected in 2003 from East Belfast
+Appointed to 2003-07 Assembly to fill a vacancy

DUP 11,155 (37.6%, -1.5%) 3 seats (+1)
UUP 6,516 (22.0%, -11.1%) 1 seat (-1)
Alliance 5,583 (18.8%, +9.9%) 1 seat
PUP 3,045 (10.3%, +0.6%) 1 seat
SF 1,055 (3.6%, -0.3%)
SDLP 816 (2.8%, -0.4%)
Green 653 (2.2%)
Conservative 427 (1.4%, +0.7%)
Socialist 225 (0.8%, +0.2%)
WP 107 (0.4%, -0.04%)
Rainbow George 47 (0.2%, -0.1%)

Electorate 49,757
Votes cast 29,873 (60.0%); spoilt votes 242 (0.8%)
Valid votes 29,629; quota 4,233

The UUP's disastrous failure to balance their candidates here cost them a seat, with the DUP picking it up despite a decline in their own votes. The PUP's successful defence of the seat held by their late leader, David Ervine, took many by surprise (including me). Outgoing MLA Michael Copeland (UUP) was 517 votes behind the DUP's Robin Newton on the final count.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Peter Robinson (DUP) 15,152 (49.1% +6.6%)
@Sir Reg Empey (UUP) 9,275 (30.1% +6.9%)
@Naomi Long (Alliance) 3,746 (12.2% -3.6%)
Deborah Devenny (Sinn Fein) 1,029 (3.3% -0.1%)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 844 (2.7% +0.3%)
Alan Greer (Conservative) 434 (1.4% -0.8%)
Joe Bell (WP) 179 (0.6% +0.3%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 172 (0.6% +0.4%)

* outgoing MP
@Member of the Assembly

No big surprise. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably have given the DUP three seats, the UUP two and Alliance one.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

East Belfast is made up of 11 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 7 wards in the Victoria DEA, and 4 of the 6 wards in the Pottinger DEA [Ballymacarrett, Bloomfield, Orangefield, and The Mount]), and 9 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (all 6 wards in the Castlereagh Central DEA, 2 of the 7 wards in the Castlereagh East DEA: [Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet], and 1 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh West DEA: [Hillfoot]).

DUP 13080.7 (43.0%)
UUP 7674.9 (25.2%)
Alliance 5319.8 (17.5%) - Best equivalent result for Alliance in Northern Ireland
PUP 1481.4 (4.9%) - Best equivalent result for the PUP in Northern Ireland
SDLP 1396.7 (4.6%)
Sinn Fein 629.3 (2.1%)
Independents 419.6 (1.4%)
Conservative 243 (0.8%)
Socialist Party 108.7 (0.4%)
WP 70 (0.2%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is very difficult because the East Belfast constituency breaches three local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole constituency. The DUP would have won three seats on these votes, the UUP two, and Alliance one.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Peter Robinson (DUP) 9254 (29.9%)
*Sir Reg Empey (UUP) 6459 (20.9%)
*David Ervine (PUP) 2990 (9.7%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) 2774 (9.0%)
Michael Copeland (UUP) 2291 (7.4%)
Jim Rodgers (UUP) 1502 (4.9%)
Robin Newton (DUP) 1475 (4.8%)
Harry Toan (DUP) 1403 (4.5%)
Joseph O'Donnell (SF) 1180 (3.8%)
Leo Van Es (SDLP) 967 (3.1%)
Terry Dick (Cons) 232 (0.7%)
Thomas Black (Soc) 176 (0.6%)
Joseph Bell (WP) 125 (0.4%)
John McBlain (Ind) 72 (0.2%)
Rainbow George Weiss (VFYS) 65 (0.2%)

DUP 12,132 (39.2%, +7.8%) 2 seats
UUP 10,252 (33.1%, +8.8%) 2 seats
PUP 2,990 (9.7%, -3.9%) 1 seat Best result for PUP in Northern Ireland
Alliance 2,774 (9.0%, -9.0%) 1 seat
SF 1,180 (3.8%, +1.5%)
SDLP 967 (3.1%, +0.5%)
Con 232 (0.7%, +0.2%)
Soc 176 (0.6%) Best result for Socialists in Northern Ireland
WP 125 (0.4%, +0.2%)
Ind 72 (0.2%)
VFYS 65 (0.2%) Best result for Vote For Yourself Party in Northern Ireland

Electorate 51,937
Votes cast 31,524 (60.7%); spoilt votes 559 (1.8%)
Valid votes 30,965; quota 4,424

Analysis: Better balancing from the DUP here would certainly have seen them win an extra seat, probably from Alliance; as it was, Robinson's 4830 surplus went 2943 to Newton, electing him, but only 1230 to Toan, dooming him to elimination. Rodgers managed to halve the gap between his own tally and that of running mate Michael Copeland from 789 to 354 by the final count, but it was not enough.

East Belfast had lost 11.53% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 17.28% in The Mount ward of Belfast to 6.86% in the Hillfoot ward of Castlereagh. 12 constituencies lost fewer voters, 5 lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*@Peter Robinson (DUP) 15,667 (42.5%)
Tim Lemon (UUP) 8,550 (23.2%)
David Alderdice (Alliance) 5,832 (15.8%)
@David Ervine (PUP) 3,669 (10.0%) Best result in Northern Ireland
Joe O'Donnell (Sinn Fein) 1,237 (3.4%)
Ciara Farren (SDLP) 888 (2.4%)
Terry Dick (Con) 800 (2.2%)
Joe Bell (WP) 123 (0.3%)
Rainbow George Weiss (Vote for Yourself Party) 71 (0.2%)

Electorate: 58,455; votes cast: 37,031 (63.3%); spoilt votes: 202 (0.5%)
Valid votes: 36,829; DUP majority 7,117

* outgoing MP
@Member of the Assembly

Not a very surprising result, indeed quite a close reproduction of 1997. Even a single pro-Agreement candidate running against Robinson would have had difficulties. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP would have won three, and Alliance and the UUP one each, with the PUP probably beating the UUP for the last seat.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 12970.7 (36%)
UUP 10541.8 (29%)
Alliance 5683 (16%)
PUP 2534.7 (7%)
SDLP 1277.2 (4%)
SF 874.3 (2%)
Conservative Party 365 (1%)
UKUP 338.3 (1%)
Workers Party 86 (0.2%)
Women's Coalition 61.2 (0.2%)
Independents 1506.0 (4%)
Total valid 36238.2

Extrapolating from the these figures , the DUP and UUP would both have won two seats, and Alliance one. The last seat would have been between a third DUP candidate and the PUP.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Peter Robinson MP (DUP) 11,219
*Lord Alderdice (Alliance) 6,144
*Reg Empey (UUP) 5,158
#David Ervine (PUP) 5,114
Ian Adamson (UUP) 3,447
Denny Vitty (UKU) 1,362
Peter Jones (SDLP) 1,025
*Jim Rodgers (UUP) 1,015
Richard Good (Alliance) 1,000
Joe O'Donnell (SF) 917
#Pearl Sagar (NIWC) 711
*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 633
Robert Girvan (UDP) 516
John Norris (DUP) 373
David Bleakley (Lab) 369
Dawn Purvis (PUP) 271
Lesley Donaldson (C) 203
Joe Bell (WP) 79
David Collins (NLP) 22
John Lawrence (Energy 106 Party) 15

DUP 12,225 (30.88%) 2 seats
UUP 9,620 (24.30%) 2 seats
Alliance 7,144 (18.04%) 1 seat
PUP 5,385 (13.60%) 1 seat
UKU 1,362 (3.44%)
SDLP 1,025 (2.59%)
SF 917 (2.32%)
NIWC 711 (1.80%)
UDP 516 (1.30%)
Lab 369 (0.93%)
C 203 (0.51%)
WP 79 (0.20%)
NLP 22 (0.06%)
Energy 15 (0.04%)

Electorate 60,562
Votes cast 40,356 (66.6%); spoilt votes 763 (1.9%)
Valid votes 39,593; quota 5,657

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from East Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

Not a great surprise. Richard Good (Alliance), who finished on 2,975, was a long way behind Ian Adamson (UUP) on 5,414.

1997 Local Government Election

Democratic Unionist Party 10177.8 (36%) (best equivalent result for DUP in NI)
Ulster Unionist Party 8054.3 (28%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 5804 (20%)
Progressive Unionist Party 1654.7 (6%)
Sinn Féin 652 (2%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 553.8 (2%)
United Kingdom Unionist Pary 267 (1%)
Conservative Party 256 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party 199.2 (1%)
Women's Coalition 99.3 (0.35%)
Workers Party 76.7 (0.27%)
Natural Law Party 37.7 (0.13%)
Ulster Independence 14 (0.05%)
East Belfast Labour 12.7 (0.04%)
Others 259.7 (1%)
Total valid 28,399.3 (45.18% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

*ƒPeter Robinson (Democratic Unionist Party) 16,640 (42%)
ƒReg Empey (Ulster Unionist Party) 9,886 (25%)
Jim Hendron (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 9,288 (24%) (best result for Alliance in NI)
Sarah Dines (Conservative Party) 928 (2%)
Dominic Corr (Sinn Féin) 810 (2%)
Patricia Lewsley (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 629 (2%)
Derek Dougan (Independent) 541 (1%)
Joseph Bell (Workers' Party) 237 (1%)
David Collins (Natural Law Party) 70 (0.18%)
Turnout 39,029 (63.21%)

* outgoing MP
ƒMember of the Forum

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 11,270 (29%); Peter Robinson, Sammy Wilson elected
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 8,608 (22%); Reg Empey, Jim Rodgers elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 7,130 (19%); John Alderdice elected (best result for Alliance in NI)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 3,802 (10%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKU) 2,496 (7%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 1,299 (3%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,156 (3%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 862 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 405 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 291 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 199 (1%)
Democratic Partnership 197 (1%)
Green Party 161 (0.42%)
Workers Party (WP) 149 (0.39%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 114 (0.30%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 93 (0.24%)
Democratic Left (DL) 45 (0.12%)
Communist Party of Ireland (CP) 38 (0.10%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 11 (0.03%)

Electorate: 62,161; votes cast: 38,419 (61.8%); spoilt votes: 80 (0.2%); valid votes: 38,339

Peter Robinson had previously been elected to the 1982 Assembly, and Reg Empey to the 1975 Constitutional Convention, from East Belfast.

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

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Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.

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