Fermanagh and South Tyrone

map East
                Antrim East Antrim East Belfast East Belfast East Londonderry Foyle Foyle Fermanagh & South Tyrone Lagan
                Valley Mid-Ulster North Antrim North Antrim Newry & Armagh North Belfast North Belfast North
                Down North Down South Antrim South Belfast South Belfast South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Belfast West Belfast West Tyrone results graph
Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the largely rural south-western corner of Northern Ireland, including Fermanagh District Council and most of Dungannon District Council. The local MP is Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew; previously the MP had been Ken Maginnis (UUP) since he defeated Owen Carron (SF) in 1983, but he retired (and received a life peerage) before the 2001 election. SF hold three Assembly setas here, the DUP two and the UUP one (the SDLP lost their seat to SF in 2011, and in 2007 the DUP retained the seat they had gained by a UUP defection shortly after the 2003 election). See 1983-1992 Fermanagh and South Tyrone results, 1973-1982 Fermanagh and South Tyrone results and the 1950-1970 Fermanagh and South Tyrone results.

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

The constituency lost the Coalisland area to Mid Ulster in the 1995 revision; this converted it from a Nationalist majority seat (often won by Unionists if the Nationalist votes were divided) to a much more even split, but since 1997 Nationalists have again been consistently ahead. The constituency was left unchanged in 2010.

Fermanagh-South Tyrone's population in the 2001 census was 91,127 (10th of the 18 constituencies).

Results of recent elections


DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2011a
24.4% 19.3% 2.6% 1.8% 2.1% 9.6% 40.3%
2011lg
21.4% 23.1% 1.5% 0.7% 7.5% 12.7% 33.1%
2010w     45.5% 0.9% 0.4% 7.6% 45.5%
2007a
25.5% 19.7% 0.8% 1.1% 2.7% 14.0% 36.2%
2005w 28.8% 18.2%


14.8% 38.2%
2005lg 25.0% 21.7%

1.2% 17.2% 34.9%

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@Michelle Gildernew MP (SF) 9,110 (19 .0%)
@Tom Elliott (UUP) 6,896 (14.4%)
@Arlene Foster (DUP) 6,876 (14.3%)
Sean Lynch (SF) 5,146 (10.7%)
Phil Flanagan (SF) 5,082 (10.6%)
@[Lord] Maurice Morrow (DUP) 4,844 (10.1%)
@Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 4,606 (9.6%)
Kenny Donaldson (UUP) 2,366 (4.9%)
Alex Elliott (TUV) 1,231 (2.6%)
Pat Cox (Independent) 997 (2.1%)
Hannah Su (Alliance) 845 (1.8%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 19,338 (40.3%, +4.0%) 3 seats (+1)
DUP 11,720 (24.4%, -1.1%) 2 seats
UUP 9,262 (19.3%, -0.4%) 1 seat
SDLP 4,606 (9.6%, -4.4%) (-1)
TUV 1,231 (2.6%)
Cox 997 (2.1%)
Alliance 845 (1.8%, +0.6%)

Electorate: 70,985  
Turnout: 48,949 (69.0%); spoilt votes 950 (1.9%)
Valid votes: 47,999; quota: 6,858

An impressive result for SF, who managed to largely contnue their squeeze on the SDLP from the previous year and took the SDLP seat here, Phil Flanagan a crucial 62 votes ahead of Tommy Gallagher on the last count (with the constituency providing the closest result of the 18 for the second time in a row).

2011 local government election

Votes cast in Fermanagh District Council and three DEAs of Dungannon and South Tyrone:

SF 15,884 (33.1%)
UUP 11,101 (23.1%)
DUP 10,247 (21.4%)
SDLP 6,101 (12.7%)
TUV 717 (1.5%)
Alliance 325 (0.7%)
Socialist 248 (0.5%)
Green 63 (0.1%)
Inds 3,272 (6.8%)

These votes, cast in a six-seat STV constituency, would probably have given SF and the UUP two seats, and the DUP and SDLP one seat each.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) 21,304 (45.5%, +7.3%)
Rodney Connor (Independent) 21,300 (45.5%)
Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 3,574 (7.6%, -7.2%)
Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 437 (0.9%)
John Stevenson (Independent) 188 (0.4%)
Electorate: 67,908; Total poll: 47,066 (69.3%); Invalid Votes: 263 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 46,803

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

An extraordinary result, the closest in the UK, with Gildernew retaining her seat by a mere four votes (the next smallest majority was Glenda Jackson's victory in Hampstead and Kilburn, by 42 over the Conservatives). Gildernew effectively squeezed the SDLP vote by almost half, and it would appear that Connor was not able to move quite enough supporters of the two main Unionist parties to come out on the day. If these votes were cast in an Assembly election, Connor's supporters would win three seats, and so would Sinn Féin.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available from the Electoral Office (in PowerPoint format) here.
*Arlene Foster (DUP) 7138 (15.4%)
*Michelle Gildernew MP (SF) 7026 (15.1%)
*Tom Elliott (UUP) 6603 (14.2%)
*Gerry McHugh (SF) 5103 (11.0%)
Sean Lynch (SF) 4704 (10.1%)
*Maurice [Lord] Morrow (DUP) 4700 (10.1%)
*Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 4440 (9.6%)
Kenneth Donaldson (UUP) 2531 (5.4%)
Vincent Currie (SDLP) 2043 (4.4%)
Gerry McGeough (Independent) 814 (1.8%)
Allan Leonard (Alliance) 521 (1.1%)
Michael McManus (Independent) 431 (0.9%)
^Robert McCartney (UKUP) 388 (0.8%)

*Elected in 2003 from Fermanagh-South Tyrone
^Elected in 2003 from North Down
SF 16,833 (36.2%, +1.8%) 2 seats
DUP 11,838 (25.5%, +4.6%) 2 seats (+1)
UUP 9,134 (19.7%, -9.0%) 1 seat (-1)
SDLP 6,483 (14.0%, -2.3%) 1 seat
Inds 1,245 (2.7%)
Alliance 521 (1.1%, +0.6%)
UKUP 388 (0.8%)

Electorate 65,826 
Votes cast 46,845 (71.1%); spoilt votes 403 (0.9%) 
Valid votes 46,442; quota 6,636

DUP consolidated their gain through defection from the UUP. On the last count McHugh (SF) was 588 votes ahead of his party colleague Lynch, with undistributed surpluses of 379 from the DUP and 5 from the SDLP. McHugh subsequently resigned from SF and sat as an Independent member of the Assembly.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) 18,638 (38.2% +4.1%)
@Arlene Foster (DUP) 14,056 (28.8%)
@Tom Elliot (UUP) 8,869 (18.2% -15.8%)
@Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 7,230 (14.8% -3.9%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

Given the continuing split between the Unionist candidates, Sinn Fein were always likely to hold this seat. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give Sinn Fein and the DUP two seats each, and the UUP and SDLP one each.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

The constituency comprises all 23 wards in Fermanagh and 16 of 22 wards in Dungannon (all 5 wards in the Blackwater DEA, all 5 wards in the Clogher Valley DEA, and all 6 wards in the Dungannon Town DEA. First preference votes cast were as follows:

Sinn Fein 16954 (34.9%)
DUP 12162 (25.0%)
UUP 10534 (21.7%)
SDLP 8336 (17.2%)
Socialist Party 406 (0.8%)
Green 79 (0.2%)
Independent 115 (0.2%)

If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would elect two each from SF and the DUP, and one each from the UUP and the SDLP.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
*Michelle Gildernew (SF) 6489 (14.1%)
Tom Elliott (UUP) 6181 (13.4%)
*Maurice Morrow (DUP) 5536 (12.0%) 
Tom O'Reilly (SF) 5019 (10.9%)
Arlene Foster (UUP) 4938 (10.7%)
*Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 4735 (10.3%)
*Gerry McHugh (SF) 4393 (9.5%)
Bert Johnston (DUP) 3094 (6.7%)
Frank Britton (SDLP) 2772 (6.0%)
Robert Mulligan (UUP) 2110 (4.6%) 
Eithne McNulty (NIWC) 650 (1.4%) 
Linda Cleland (Alliance) 243 (0.5%)
SF 15,901 (34.4%, +7.5%)
UUP 13,229 (28.7%, +4.1%)
DUP 8,630 (18.7%, +4.8%)
SDLP 7,507 (16.3%, -5.3%)
NIWC 650 (1.4%, -2.0%)
Alliance 243 (0.5%, -0.7%)

Electorate 64,336 
Votes cast 46,873 (72.9%); spoilt votes 713 (1.5%) 
Valid votes 46,160; quota 6,595 


Initial reaction:
No change in party strength, though Gerry McHugh lost his seat to running mate Tom O'Reilly.

Subsequent developments: Foster resigned from the UUP on 18 December 2003 and later joined the DUP. Morrow was elevated to the House of Lords as Baron Morrow of Clogher Valley in June 2006

Fermanagh-South Tyrone had lost 7.95% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, less than any constituency except Mid Ulster, varying from 13.11% in the Drumglass ward of Dungannon to 2.31% in the Tempo ward of Fermanagh.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

@Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Fein) 17,739 (34.1%)
James Cooper (UUP) 17,686 (34.0%)
@Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 9,706 (18.7%)
Jim Dixon (Independent) 6,843 (13.2%)

Electorate: 66,640; votes cast: 52,667 (79.0%); spoilt votes: 693 (1.3%)
Valid votes: 51,974; SF majority 53

@ member of the Assembly

One of SF's two dramatic gains in the election, though the margin was so narrow that the defeated UUP were threatening a court case. A six-seat Assembly election, based on these votes, would give SF and the UUP two seats each, and one each to the SDLP and Dixon.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

SF 16193 (31%)
UUP 15385 (30%)
SDLP 9560 (18%)
DUP 8502 (16%)
UKUP 182 (0.4%)
Independents 1969 (4%)
Total valid votes 51791

These votes would have given the UUP and SF two seats each, and the SDLP and DUP one each.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
 
*Tommy Gallagher (SDLP) 8,135 
*Sam Foster (UUP) 5,589 
*Gerry McHugh (SF) 5,459 
Michelle Gildernew (SF) 4,703 
Joan Carson (UUP) 4,400 
Jim Dixon (UKU) 4,262
*Maurice Morrow (DUP) 3,987 
Pat Treanor (SF) 3,552 
Bert Johnston (DUP) 3,095 
Olive Mullen (SDLP) 2,872 
Bertie Kerr (UUP) 2,583 
Marie Crawley (NIWC) 1,729 
Stephen Farry (All) 614 
Simeon Gillan (NLP) 63 
SF 13,714 votes (26.87%) 2 seats
UUP 12,572 votes (24.63%) 2 seats
SDLP 11,007 votes (21.56%) 1 seat
DUP 7,082 votes (13.87%) 1 seat
UKUP 4,262 votes (8.35%) 
WC 1,729 votes (3.39%)
Alliance 614 votes (1.2%) 
NLP 63 votes (0.12%) 

Electorate 65,383 
Votes cast: 51,923 (79.4%); spoilt votes: 880 (1.7%) 
Valid votes: 51,043; quota 7,292

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Fermanagh-South Tyrone

No big surprise here as Sinn Féin consolidated their lead over the SDLP for the Nationalist vote. The UKUP started in sixth place, but were overtaken by the DUP's Maurice Morrow when his running-mate was eliminated. The UUP's Joan Carson took the last seat with 6,582 votes to Jim Dixon's 5,001, and Foster's undistributed surplus of 203 would have widened the gap. Dixon was to wreak revenge in 2001.

1997 Local Government Election

First preference votes cast in the whole of the Fermanagh council area and three Dungannon electoral areas were as follows:

Ulster Unionist Party 17,875 votes (39%)
Sinn Fein 10,413 votes (23%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 8,329 votes (18%)
Democratic Unionist Party 5,563 votes (12%)
Non Party 1250 votes (3%)
Independent Nationalist 909 votes (2%)
Progressive Socialist 581 votes (1%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 523 votes (1%)
Democratic Left 412 votes (1%)
Women's Coalition 319 votes (1%)
Total valid votes 46,174 (71.24% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election

*ƒKen Maginnis (Ulster Unionist Party) 24,862 (51%)
ƒGerry McHugh (Sinn Féin) 11,174 (23%)
ƒTommy Gallagher (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 11,060 (23%)
Stephen Farry (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 977 (2%)
Simeon Gillan (Natural Law Party) 217 (0.45%)
Turnout 48,290 (74.75%)

* outgoing MP
ƒ member of the Forum

1996 Forum election

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 15,542 (32%) Ken Maginnis, Sam Foster elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 11,666 (24%); Gerry McHugh elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 10,399 (22%); Tommy Gallagher elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 6,589 (14%); Maurice Morrow elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 831 (2%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 468 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 464 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 461 (1%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 410 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 297 (1%)
Green Party 208 (0.43%)
Workers Party (WP) 199 (0.41%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 189 (0.39%)
Democratic Left (DL) 128 (0.27%)
Independent McMullan 118 (0.25%)
Conservative Party (Con) 113 (0.23%)
Independent Chambers 36 (0.07%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 23 (0.05%)

Electorate: 63,716; votes cast: 48,355 (75.8%); spoilt votes: 214 (0.4%); valid votes: 48,141

Maginnis had been elected to the 1982 Assembly for Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Results 1996-2007


DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2007a
26% 20% 1% 1% 3% 14% 36%
2005w 29% 18%


15% 38%
2005lg 25% 22%

1% 17% 35%
2003a 19% 29%
1% 1% 16% 34%
2001w
34% 13%

19% 34%
2001lg 16% 30% 0%
4% 18% 31%
1998a 14% 25% 8% 1% 4% 22% 27%
1997lg 12% 39%
1% 8% 18% 23%
1997w
51%
2% 0% 23% 23%
1996f 14% 32% 3% 2% 3% 22% 24%

 


See also: Full 2003 results from Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Full 1998 results from Fermanagh and South Tyrone | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 
This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 9 May 2010.



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