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| Map and diagram by Conal Kelly | |
This constituency takes in most of Ards District Council, parts of Castlereagh District Council and the Saintfield area of Down District Council. The member of parliament has been Iris Robinson since the 2001 election; John Taylor (UUP deputy leader) had represented it since it was formed in 1983, but chose to stand down at the election (and got a life peerage, becoming Lord Kilclooney). The DUP hold four of the Assembly seats here with the UUP and Alliance one each (in 2007 the DUP gained a seat from the UUP; in 2003 they had gained the seat won by the UKUP in 1998). The constituency's western (Castlereagh) part was substantially rearranged in 1995; its eastern part was shunted southward, losing Donaghadee to North Down but gaining from South Down. See the 1983-92 Strangford results.
See also the detailed guide by "Sammy Morse".
The New Boundaries: Under the Boundary Commission's proposals, Strangford (as usual) is much the most altered constituency. It loses seven Castlereagh wards, five (Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham's Bridge) to East Belfast and two (Carryduff East and Carryduff West) to South Belfast, but gaining three Down district wards (Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch East and Kilmore) from South Down. This makes the new constituency 1.3% more Catholic, and 1.2% less Protestant than the old. This must increase the chance of the Nationalist seat so nearly missed in both 2003 and 2007.
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
48.9% | 18.5% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| 2005w | 54.8% | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 3.7% | |
| 2005lg | 48.0% | 26.0% | 1.9% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 8.0% | 2.7% |
Strangford's population in the 2001 census was 98,158 (8th of the 18 constituencies).
| DUP | UKUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
50% | 2% | 18% | 2% | 11% | 4% | 9% | 3% |
| 2005w | 56% | 21% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 2005lg | 49% | 23% | 0% | 14% | 4% | 7% | 2% | |
| 2003a | 48% | 29% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 3% | |
| 2001w | 43% | 40% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 2% | ||
| 2001lg | 37% | 30% | 1% | 15% | 8% | 8% | 1% | |
| 1998a | 28% | 7% | 29% | 12% | 12% | 1% | 9% | 1% |
| 1997lg | 27% | 1% | 32% | 2% | 20% | 9% | 9% | |
| 1997w | 30% | 44% | 4% | 13% | 0% | 7% | 1% | |
| 1996f | 29% | 8% | 31% | 9% | 12% | 2% | 7% | 2% |
| *Iris
Robinson MP (DUP) 5917 (16.4%) *Jim Shannon (DUP) 4788 (13.3%) *Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) 4085 (11.3%) Simon Hamilton (DUP) 3889 (10.8%) *David McNarry (UUP) 3709 (10.3%) Michelle McIlveen (DUP) 3468 (9.6%) Joe Boyle (SDLP) 3068 (8.5%) Angus Carson (UUP) 2128 (5.9%) Dermot Kennedy (SF) 1089 (3.0%) *George Ennis (UKUP) 872 (2.4%) Stephanie Sim (Green) 868 (2.4%) Michael Henderson (UUP) 675 (1.9%) Martin Gregg (Independent) 650 (1.8%) Robert Little (Conservative) 508 (1.4%) Cedric Wilson (Independent Unionist) 305 (0.8%) *Elected in 2003 from Strangford |
DUP 18,062 (50.1%, +2.2) 4 seats (+1) UUP 6,512 (18.1%, -10.9%) 1 seat (-1) Alliance 4,085 (11.3%, +4.0%) 1 seat SDLP 3,068 (8.5%, +0.7%) SF 1,089 (3.0%, +0.1%) UKUP 872 (2.4%) Green 868 (2.4%,+1.3%) Ind 650 (1.8%) Conservative 508 (1.4%) Ind U 305 (0.8%) Electorate 66,648 Votes cast 36,340 (54.5%); spoilt votes 321 (0.9%) Valid votes 36,019; quota 5,346 |
*@Iris Robinson (DUP) 20,921 (56.5% +13.7%)
Gareth McGimpsey (UUP) 7,872 (21.3% -19.0%)
@Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) 3,332 (9.0% +2.3%)
Joe Boyle (SDLP) 2,496 (6.7% +0.6%)
Terry Dick (Conservative) 1,462 (3.9%)
Dermot Kennedy (Sinn Fein) 949 (2.6% +0.4%)
* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly
In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the DUP four seats and the UUP one, with the last seat between Alliance and the second UUP candidate (the SDLP would have an outside chance).
The constituency comprises 20 of the 23 wards in Ards (all 5 wards in the Ards Peninsula DEA, all 6 wards in the Ards West DEA, all 6 wards in the Newtownards DEA, and 3 of the 6 wards in the Ards East DEA [Gregstown, Loughries and Movilla]); 8 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (5 of the 7 wards in the Castlereagh East DEA [Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham's Bridge] and 3 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh South DEA [Carryduff East, Carryduff West and Moneyreagh]); and 3 of the 23 wards in Down (3 of the 5 wards in the Rowallane DEA [Derryboy, Killyleagh and Saintfield]). Votes cast in 2005 were as follows:
DUP 17,776.7 (49.1%) - Best equivalent result for
the DUP in Northern Ireland
UUP 8,434.1 (23.3%)
Alliance 4,899.4 (13.5%)
SDLP 2,681.8 (7.4%)
Sinn Fein 716.8 (2.0%)
Green 203.2 (0.6%)
PUP 129.3 (0.4%)
Independents 1,333.6 (3.7%)
These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats and Alliance and the UUP one each. The last seat would be slightly more likely to go to the UUP than the DUP.
| *Iris
Robinson (DUP) 8548 (22.9%) *Lord Kilclooney (UUP) 5658 (15.2%) *Jim Shannon (DUP) 4703 (12.6%) George Ennis (DUP) 4606 (12.4%) David McNarry (UUP) 3000 (8.1%) Joe Boyle (SDLP) 2906 (7.8%) *Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) 2741 (7.4%) Bob Little (UUP) 2123 (5.7%) Dermot Kennedy (SF) 1105 (3.0%) *Cedric Wilson (NIUP) 576 (1.5%) Colin Neill (PUP) 540 (1.4%) Philip Orr (Green) 425 (1.1%) Danny McCarthy (Ind) 319 (0.9%) |
DUP
17,857
(47.9%, +20.2%) 3 seats Best result for
DUP in Northern
Ireland UUP 10,781 (28.9%, -0.3%) 2 seats SDLP 2,906 (7.8%, -1.2) Alliance 2,741 (7.4%, -4.8%) 1 seat SF 1,105 (3.0%, +1.6%) NIUP 576 (1.5%) PUP 540 (1.4%, -1.7%) Green 425 (1.1%, +0.6%) Ind 319 (0.9%) Electorate
66,308 |
Electorate:
72,192; votes cast: 43,471 (60.2%); spoilt votes: 217 (0.5%)
Valid votes:
43,254; DUP majority 1,110
@ member of the Assembly
This was the least unexpected of the DUP's gains; in fact the surprise was that Iris Robinson's majority was so low, presumably because of tactical voting by Alliance and SDLP supporters. In a six-seat Assembly election on these figures, the DUP would get three seats and the UUP two, with the last seat between the UUP and Alliance.
DUP
13753.5
(37%)
UUP 11324.5
(30%)
Alliance 5453
(15%)
SDLP 3024.8
(8%)
SF 420 (1%)
PUP 332.9 (1%)
Cons 221.2
(1%)
Independents
2875.7 (8%)
Total valid
37405.5
Extrapolating from the local government elections is very difficult because the Strangford constituency breaches no less than four local electoral area boundaries, and in addition there was no voting in one small part of the constituency. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole of Strangford. The DUP and UUP are both certain of two seats, and Alliance of one; the UUP would need transfers from the SDLP to beat the DUP for the last seat, which does not seem very likely.
| *Iris
Robinson (DUP) 9,479 *John Taylor (UUP) 9,203 #Cedric Wilson (UKU) 3,078 *Kieran McCarthy (A) 2,947 Peter Osborne (A) 2,269 John Beattie (Ind UU) 2,247 Danny McCarthy (SDLP) 1,982 Brian Hanvey (SDLP) 1,883 *Thomas Benson (UUP) 1,623 *Jim Shannon (DUP) 1,415 Ricky Johnston (PUP) 1,342 David McNarry (UUP) 1,073 Tommy Jeffers (DUP) 1,007 Wilbert Magill (Unionist) 951 Tom Hamilton (UUP) 615 Paddy McGreevy (SF) 614 Blakely McNally (UDP) 322 Thomas Beattie (C) 263 Nancy Orr (Ind Community Cand) 201 Andrew Frew (Green) 200 Jonathan Stewart (Lab) 181 Sarah Mullins (NLP) 27 |
UUP
12,514 (29.16%) 2 seats DUP 11,901 (27.73%) 2 seats Alliance 5,216 (12.15%) 1 seat SDLP 3,865 (9.00%) UKU 3,078 (7.17%) 1 seat Ind UU 2,247 (5.24%) PUP 1,342 (3.13%) Unionist 951 (2.22%) SF 614 (1.43%) UDP 322 (0.75%) C 263 (0.61%) Ind CC 201 (0.47%) Green 200 (0.47%) Lab 181 (0.42%) NLP 27 (0.06%) Electorate:
70,868 |
* elected
in
1996 Forum/talks election from Strangford
# elected in
1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.
Both DUP and UUP piled most of their first preferences onto their two lead candidates, but the transferred surplus votes pulled in later runners. This was always the second most likely seat for the UKUP to win. The SDLP polled very well in first preferences but attracted practically no transfers; Danny McCarthy was the runner-up with 4,645 votes on the last count, not so very far behind Cedric Wilson who finished on 4,804 (Kieran McCarthy's surplus of 70 votes had not been distributed).
Ulster
Unionist
Party (UUP) 12,547 (31%) 2 seats (John Taylor, Thomas Benson elected)
Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP) 11,584 (29%) 2 seats (Iris Robinson, Jim Shannon
elected)
Alliance Party
of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,614 (12%) 1 seat (Kieran McCarthy elected)
United Kingdom
Unionist Party (UKUP) 3,112 (8%)
Social Democratic
and Labour Party (SDLP) 2,927 (7%)
Progressive
Unionist Party (PUP) 2,017 (5%)
Ulster Democratic
Party (UDP) 1,080 (3%)
Sinn Féin
(SF) 709 (2%)
Northern Ireland
Women's Coalition (NIWC) 410 (1%)
Conservative
Party (Con) 380 (1%)
Green Party
213 (1%)
Labour (Lab)
202 (1%)
Workers Party
(WP) 73 (0.18%)
Ulster's Independent
Voice (UIV) 66 (0.16%)
Ulster Independence
Movement (UIM) 57 (0.14%)
Democratic
Left (DL) 53 (0.13%)
Independent
Chambers 13 (0.03%)
Natural Law
Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Electorate: 69,093; votes cast: 40,114 (58.0%); spoilt votes: 44 (0.1%); valid votes: 40,070
Jim
Shannon
appears as "Richard Shannon" in some records. Thanks to Christopher
Stalford
of South Belfast DUP for clearing this up to me. John Taylor
had
been elected to the old Northern Ireland House of Commons, representing
Tyrone South, in 1965; he was elected to the 1973 Assembly for Fermanagh and South Tyrone and to
the 1975 Constitutional Convention and the 1982 Assembly for North Down.
See also: Full 2003 results from Strangford | Full 1998 results from Strangford | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your
comments,
please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 October 2007.
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Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
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