Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in most of Ards District Council, parts of Castlereagh District Council and the Saintfield area of Down District Council. The member of parliament has been Iris Robinson since the 2001 election; John Taylor (UUP deputy leader) had represented it since it was formed in 1983, but chose to stand down at the election (and got a life peerage, becoming Lord Kilclooney). The DUP hold three of the Assembly seats here, the UUP two and Alliance one (in 2011 the UUP regained the seat they had lost to the DUP in 2007; in 2003 the DUP had gained the seat won by the UKUP in 1998). See the 1983-92 Strangford results.

See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

The constituency was created in 1983; in 1995 its western (Castlereagh) part was substantially rearranged and its eastern part was shunted southward, losing Donaghadee to North Down but gaining from South Down. In 2010 it was again much the most altered constituency, losing five Castlereagh wards to East Belfast and two to South Belfast, but gaining three Down district wards from South Down. This made the new constituency 1.3% more Catholic, and 1.2% less Protestant than the old.

Strangford's population (on the old boundaries) in the 2001 census was 98,158 (8th of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 37.12 (4th highest).
• 13.10% described themselves as Catholic (16th of 18 constituencies); 35.44% as Presbyterian (2nd highest), 17.10% as Church of Ireland (8th highest), 5.00% as Methodist (5th highest) and 9.46% as members of other Christian denominations (3rd highest). 19.59% were "no religion or religion not stated" (5th highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 15.37% Catholic (15th out of 18), 79.99% Protestants and other Christians (3rd highest), 0.39% other religions and philosophies (equal 7th highest) and 4.25% none (5th). 

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the new boundaries. Figures for the old boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.
NB also that the Conservatives supported the UUP candidate in 2010, but account for all the "Other Unionist" vote in the 2005 Westminster election and a quarter of the "Other Unionist" vote in 2007.

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

The most surprising result of the election for me - I really thought that the SDLP, who missed the last seat here by 44 votes in 2007, and were favoured by boundary changes, would make the breakthrough; but in the end their vote filed to rise and they were beaten by 458 votes by the second UUP candidate, in a rare case of the UUP taking a seat from the DUP rather than the other way round.

2011 local goverment election

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

@Jim Shannon (DUP) 14,926 (45.9%, -4.9%)
Mike Nesbitt (UCUNF) 9,050 (27.8%,+2.6%)*
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 2,828 (8.7%, +0.3%)
Claire Hanna (SDLP) 2,164 (6.7%, -1.5%)
Terry Williams (TUV) 1,814 (5.6%)
Michael Coogan (Sinn Féin) 1,161 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Barbara Haig (Green) 562 (1.7%)
Electorate: 60,539; Total Poll: 32,600 (53.8%); Invalid Votes: 95 (0.3%); Valid Votes: 32,505

@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency
* vote change calculated from 2005 UUP and Conservative combined total

There had been much speculation about the safety of the DUP's Westminster seat, given the spectacular implosion of former MP Iris Robinson's career and the presence of celebrity UCUNF candidate Mike Nesbitt in the race. In the event, though, Nesbitt got only a modest increase in his party's vote share (admittedly, in an election where they generally made no headway at all) and few DUP votes were eroded to the TUV, enabling Shannon to retain the seat for the party. If these votes were cast in a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP would probably lose one of their seats to the UUP; the Alliance seat would be under pressure from the SDLP (though I found it puzzling that the two Nationalist parties did not do better here, considering the impact of the new boundaries).

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Iris Robinson (DUP) 20,921 (56.5% +13.7%)
Gareth McGimpsey (UUP) 7,872 (21.3% -19.0%)
@Kieran McCarthy (Alliance) 3,332 (9.0% +2.3%)
Joe Boyle (SDLP) 2,496 (6.7% +0.6%)
Terry Dick (Conservative) 1,462 (3.9%)
Dermot Kennedy (Sinn Fein) 949 (2.6% +0.4%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the DUP four seats and the UUP one, with the last seat between Alliance and the second UUP candidate (the SDLP would have an outside chance).

2005 Local Government Election

The constituency comprises 20 of the 23 wards in Ards (all 5 wards in the Ards Peninsula DEA, all 6 wards in the Ards West DEA, all 6 wards in the Newtownards DEA, and 3 of the 6 wards in the Ards East DEA [Gregstown, Loughries and Movilla]); 8 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (5 of the 7 wards in the Castlereagh East DEA [Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham's Bridge] and 3 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh South DEA [Carryduff East, Carryduff West and Moneyreagh]); and 3 of the 23 wards in Down (3 of the 5 wards in the Rowallane DEA [Derryboy, Killyleagh and Saintfield]). Votes cast in 2005 were as follows:

DUP 17,776.7 (49.1%) - Best equivalent result for the DUP in Northern Ireland
UUP 8,434.1 (23.3%)
Alliance 4,899.4 (13.5%)
SDLP 2,681.8 (7.4%)
Sinn Fein 716.8 (2.0%)
Green 203.2 (0.6%)
PUP 129.3 (0.4%)
Independents 1,333.6 (3.7%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats and Alliance and the UUP one each. The last seat would be slightly more likely to go to the UUP than the DUP.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 72,192; votes cast: 43,471 (60.2%); spoilt votes: 217 (0.5%)
Valid votes: 43,254; DUP majority 1,110

@ member of the Assembly

This was the least unexpected of the DUP's gains; in fact the surprise was that Iris Robinson's majority was so low, presumably because of tactical voting by Alliance and SDLP supporters. In a six-seat Assembly election on these figures, the DUP would get three seats and the UUP two, with the last seat between the UUP and Alliance.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 13753.5 (37%)
UUP 11324.5 (30%)
Alliance 5453 (15%)
SDLP 3024.8 (8%)
SF 420 (1%)
PUP 332.9 (1%)
Cons 221.2 (1%)
Independents 2875.7 (8%)
Total valid 37405.5

Extrapolating from the local government elections is very difficult because the Strangford constituency breaches no less than four local electoral area boundaries, and in addition there was no voting in one small part of the constituency. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole of Strangford. The DUP and UUP are both certain of two seats, and Alliance of one; the UUP would need transfers from the SDLP to beat the DUP for the last seat, which does not seem very likely.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Strangford
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

Both DUP and UUP piled most of their first preferences onto their two lead candidates, but the transferred surplus votes pulled in later runners. This was always the second most likely seat for the UKUP to win. The SDLP polled very well in first preferences but attracted practically no transfers; Danny McCarthy was the runner-up with 4,645 votes on the last count, not so very far behind Cedric Wilson who finished on 4,804 (Kieran McCarthy's surplus of 70 votes had not been distributed).

1997 Local Government Election

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 12,547 (31%) 2 seats (John Taylor, Thomas Benson elected)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 11,584 (29%) 2 seats (Iris Robinson, Jim Shannon elected)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,614 (12%) 1 seat (Kieran McCarthy elected)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 3,112 (8%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 2,927 (7%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 2,017 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,080 (3%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 709 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 410 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 380 (1%)
Green Party 213 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 202 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 73 (0.18%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 66 (0.16%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 57 (0.14%)
Democratic Left (DL) 53 (0.13%)
Independent Chambers 13 (0.03%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)

Electorate: 69,093; votes cast: 40,114 (58.0%); spoilt votes: 44 (0.1%); valid votes: 40,070

Jim Shannon appears as "Richard Shannon" in some records. Thanks to Christopher Stalford of South Belfast DUP for clearing this up to me.  John Taylor had been elected to the old Northern Ireland House of Commons, representing Tyrone South, in 1965; he was elected to the 1973 Assembly for Fermanagh and South Tyrone and to the 1975 Constitutional Convention and the 1982 Assembly for North Down.

See also: Full 2003 results from Strangford | Full 1998 results from Strangford | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 8 May 2010.