North Down and Ards District Council Elections, 2014

The new council is made up of the old Ards District Council and almost all of North Down District, except the very small Cedar Grove which becomes part of Belfast City Council.

The DUP topped the poll in all seven DEAs here, and got 42.5% of the seats with 35.4% of the votes, including an impressive third seat from 2.3 quotas in Bangor East and Donaghadee. The UUP and Alliance both also overperformed their percentage, with the UUP getting two seats from 1.2 quotas in Newtownards, and two seats from 1.1 quotas in Bangor Central.

map
Map by Conal Kelly



Summary

Electoral Area 2014 Results
Comber 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 TUV
Bangor East and Donaghadee 3 DUP, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Newtownards 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Ind, 1 Alliance
Bangor West 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 Green
Bangor Central 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green
Holywood and Clandeboye 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 Green
Ards Peninsula
3 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
2014 Results
2011 Notional Results
Votes by Party
DUP 16,460 (35.4%), 17 councillors
UUP 8,092 (17.4%), 9 councillors
Alliance 6,243 (13.4%), 7 councillors
TUV 2,252 (4.8%), 1 councillor
Green 2,023 (4.4%), 3 councillors
SDLP 1,959 (4.2%), 1 councillor
Conservatives 1,554 (3.3%)
NI21 1,441 (3.1%)
UKIP 1,180 (2.5%)
Community Partnership 388 (0.8%)
SF 388 (0.8%)
Inds 4,505 (9.7%), 2 councillors


Votes by Party:
DUP: 20,723 (41.9%), 19 councillors
Alliance: 9,039 (18.3%), 8 councillors
UUP: 7,781 (15.7%), 7 councillors
Green: 2,012 (4.1%), 1 councillor
SDLP: 1,983 (4.0%) 1 councillor
Cons: 850 (1.7%)
TUV: 830 (1.7%)
Cty Pshp: 800 (1.6%)
Ind: 5,072 (10.2%) 4 councillors (1 Ind Un)

Electorate: 112,077; votes cast 47,161 (42.1%); spoilt votes 676 (1.4%); valid votes 46,485
Electorate: 108,979; votes cast: 50,683; spoilt votes: 1,002 (2.0%); valid votes: 49,681

2011 Census: 20,550 "Catholic" (13.12%); 117,589 "Protestant" (75.05%); 1,729 Other (1.10%); 16,804 None (10.73%)

The notional results given above are my best guess projection of the 2011 results on the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather than a forecast.

See also results for:
North Down: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81
Ards: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81.


Comber (5 seats)

Westminster seat: Strangford
Includes these wards: Ballygowan, Comber North, Comber South, Comber West, and Killinchy.

2014 

Robert Gibson (DUP) 1,071
James Fletcher (UUP) 863
Deborah Girvan (Alliance) 815
Trevor Cummings (DUP) 715
John Oswald (DUP) 640
Stephen Cooper (TUV) 577
Philip Smith (UUP) 506
Isabella Hanna (UKIP) 427
John Andrews (Conservative) 411
Margaret Howson (NI21) 169
DUP 2,426 (39.2%) 2 seats
UUP 1,369 (22.1%) 1 seat
Alliance 815 (13.2%) 1 seat
TUV 577 (9.3%) 1 seat
UKIP 427 (6.9%)
Cons 411 (6.6%)
NI21 169 (2.7%)

Electorate 13,681; votes cast 6,272 (45.8%); spoilt votes 78 (1.2%); valid votes 6,194; quota: 1,033.

Cooper (TUV) finished 40.85 votes ahead of Oswald (DUP) with a UUP surplus of 4.67 undistributed. Cooper had pulled ahead of Oswald on transfers from Hanna (UKIP), getting 110 while the other surviving Unionists got between 63 and 73 each. Even so, Cummings (DUP) was 55.70 votes ahead of Cooper at the end (and their running-mate Gibson elected comfortably on the first count), so better DUP balancing could have made a difference.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, so this can be counted as a TUV gain from the DUP.


Bangor East and Donaghadee (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Down
Includes these wards: Ballycrochan, Ballymagee, Donaghadee, Groomsport, Silverbirch, and Warren.

2014

Alan Chambers (Independent) 1,311
Mark Brooks (UUP) 1,071
Gavin Walker (Alliance) 672
Peter Martin (DUP) 625
William Keery (DUP) 558
Thomas Smith (DUP) 541
Terence Malcolm (DUP) 492
Patrick Toms (UKIP) 368
Joseph Strutt (TUV) 362
Trana Gray (Green) 265
Christopher Eisenstadt (UUP) 224
William McKee (NI21) 181
Brian McBride (Conservative) 175
DUP 2,216 (32.4%) 3 seats
Ind 1,311 (19.2%) 1 seat
UUP 1,295 (18.9%) 1 seat
Alliance 672 (9.8%) 1 seat
UKIP 368 (5.4%)
TUV 362 (5.3%)
Green 265 (3.9%)
NI21 181 (2.6%)
Cons 175 (2.6%)

Electorate 19,953; votes cast 8,250 (41.3%); spoilt votes 143 (1.7%); valid votes 8,107; quota: 1,014.

Toms (UKIP) was 141.71 votes behid Smith (DUIP) on the last count; two counts earlier, Malcolm (DUP) was eliminated when only 22 votes behind Toms, but there was no real prospect of a fourth DUP seat - and they balanced pretty impresively to get three from less than 2.3 quotas.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance and 1 Ind U (Chambers), which was the actual result.

Newtownards (7 seats)

Westminster seat: Strangford
Includes these wards: Conway Square, Cronstown, Glen, Gregstown, Movilla, Scrabo, and West Winds.

2014

James Menagh (Independent) 1,464
Naomi Armstrong (DUP) 1,049
Stephen McIlveen (DUP) 829
Richard Smart (UUP) 639
Katherine Ferguson (UUP) 595
Colin Kennedy (DUP) 553
Alan McDowell (Alliance) 538
David McMullen (TUV) 522
Linda Cleland (Alliance) 495
John Elliott (DUP) 464
Ian Cox (Independent) 384
Nichola Keenan (NI21) 251
Sharon Hunt (Independent) 206
William McKendry (Conservative) 118
DUP 2,895 (35.7%) 3 seats
Inds 2,054 (25.3%) 1 seat
UUP 1,234 (15.2%) 2 seats
Alliance 1,033 (12.7%) 1 seat
TUV 522 (6.4%)
NI21 251 (3.1%)
Cons 118 (1.5%)

Electorate 19,953; votes cast 8,250 (41.3%); spoilt votes 143 (1.7%); valid votes 8,107; quota: 1,014.

On the last count, the two UUP candidates, Smart and Ferguson, had 864.79 and 855.85 votes respectively, with McMullen (TUV) some way behind on 689.53 and undistributed surpluses of 18 (DUP) and 60 (Alliance). This impressive case of balancing got the UUP two seats from 1.2 quotas of first preferences. Better DUP balancing could have put them in contention for another seat too - they had more than twice as many first preferences as the UUP their fourth candidate, Elliott, was only 36 votes behind McMullen when he was eliminated.

Irish Observer projected 4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Ind; Faha probably meant to project 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Ind, which was the actual result.


Bangor West (5 seats)

Westminster seat: North Down
Includes these wards: Bryansburn, Kilcooley, Rathgael, Rathmore, and Silverstream.

2014

Marion Smith (UUP) 870
Alan Graham (DUP) 866
Alan Leslie (DUP) 851
Scott Wilson (Alliance) 619
Robert Gordon (TUV) 491
Paul Roberts (Green) 346
Steven Denny (NI21) 344
Laurence Thompson (Alliance) 315
Ingrid Logan (SDLP) 264
Mark Brotherston (Conservative) 254
Alison Blayney (Community Partnership) 166
DUP 1,717 (31.9%) 2 seats
Alliance 934 (17.3%) 1 seat
UUP 870 (16.2%) 1 seat
TUV 491 (9.1%)
Green 346 (6.4%) 1 seat
NI21 344 (6.4%)
SDLP 264 (4.9%)
Cons 254 (4.7%)
CP 166 (3.1%)

Electorate 13,479; votes cast 5,448 (40.4%); spoilt votes 62 (1.1%); valid votes 5,386; quota: 898.

Roberts (Green) finished 173 votes ahead of Gordon (TUV), in an election count where four surpluses were transferred with all transferred votes going at full rather than fractional value. On the seventh count, Thompson (Alliance) was 36 votes behind Roberts, with Wilson (also Alliance) several hundred ahead; better Alliance balancing would have won them two seats on Green transfers.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance and 1 Ind (Brian Wilson). The Greens and Alliance effectively fought a close race for Wilson's seat, appropriately enough given that he had previously been elected for both parties.


Bangor Central (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Down
Includes these wards: Ballygrainey, Ballyholme, Bloomfield, Broadway, Castle, and Harbour.

2014 Candidates

Wesley Irvine (DUP) 643
Ian Henry (UUP) 589
Alistair Cathcart (DUP) 554
Noelle Robinson (Green) 496
Mary Macartney (Independent) 445
Stuart Anderson (Alliance) 443
Carl McClean (UUP) 442
Roberta Dunlop (DUP) 434
Nicholas Fell (Alliance) 395
David Chambers (Independent) 387
William Montgomery (UKIP) 385
William Cudworth (TUV) 300
Colin Breen (Independent) 274
Mark Gordon (Community Partnership) 222
Adam Harbinson (DUP) 203
Peter Floyd (NI21) 174
David Symington (Conservative) 170
DUP 1,834 (28.0%) 2 seats
Inds 1,106 (16.9%)
UUP 1,031 (15.7%) 2 seats
Alliance 838 (12.8%) 1 seat
Green 496 (7.6%) 1 seat
UKIP 385 (5.9%)
TUV 300 (4.6%)
CP 222 (3.4%)
NI21 174 (2.7%)
Cons 170 (2.6%)
Electorate 17,194; votes cast 6,678 (38.8%); spoilt votes 122 (1.8%); valid votes 6,556; quota: 937.

Dunlop (DUP) finished 46.80 votes behind Cathcart (also DUP) with a Green surplus of 20 and a UUP surplus of 19 undistributed. A very impressive squeeze from the UUP, getting two seats on 1.1 quotas of first preferences.

On the eleventh count (of thirteen), Macartney (Ind) was eliminated due to a difference of 0.32 votes with Dunlop, and her votes elected Robinson (Green), Anderson (Alliance) and Henry (UUP). If Dunlop instead had been eliminated, might Unionist surplus transfers have pulled Macartney ahead of Robinson (Green)? Probably not, I suppose.

Irish Observer projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Ind and Faha projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green. Definitely a UUP gain from the DUP, possibly a Green gain from a notional independent.


Holywood and Clandeboye (5 seats)

Westminster seat: North Down
Includes these wards: Clandeboye, Cultra, Helen's Bay, Holywood, and Loughview.

2014

Gordon Dunne (DUP) 1,423
John Barry (Green) 916
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 910
Daniel Allen (UUP) 619
Jennifer Gilmour (DUP) 540
James McKerrow (UUP) 475
Kate Nicholl (Alliance) 456
Peter Lismore (SDLP) 308
William O'Callaghan (Conservative) 265
Matthew Johnston (NI21) 208
Gerard Leddy (Independent) 34
DUP 1,963 (31.9%) 2 seats
Alliance 1,366 (22.2%) 1 seat
UUP 1,094 (17.8%) 1 seat
Green 916 (14.9%) 1 seat - best Green result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 308 (5.0%)
Cons 265 (3.4%)
NI21 208 (3.4%)
Ind 34 (0.6%)

Electorate 14,158; votes cast 6,229 (44.0%); spoilt votes 75 (1.2%); valid votes 6,154; quota: 1,026.

Nicholl (Alliance) was 195.56 votes behind Gilmour (DUP) on the last count, with both the UUP and Greens holding untransferred surpluses of 72 votes.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP; Faha projected 2 Alliance, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Green. In fact Alliance were never close to the second seat here, whther one considers it to have been gained by the DUP or the Greens.


Ards Peninsula (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Down / Strangford
Includes these wards: Ballywalter, Carrowdore, Kircubbin, Loughries, Portaferry, and Portavogie.

2014

Robert Adair (DUP) 1,773
Joe
Boyle (SDLP) 1,387
Angus Carson (UUP) 1,199
Nigel Edmund (DUP) 621
Louise Wallace (DUP) 559
Edward Thompson (DUP) 456
Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) 439
Sheila Bailie (SF) 388
Paul Leeman (Conservatives) 161
Colin McCormick (Alliance) 146
John Bustard (NI21) 114
DUP 3,409 (47.1%) 3 seats
SDLP 1,387 (19.1%) 1 seat
UUP 1,199 (16.6%) 1 seat
Alliance 585 (8.1%) 1 seat
SF 388 (5.4%)
Cons 161 (2.2%)
NI21 114 (1.6%)

Electorate 16,656; votes cast 7,369 (44.2%); spoilt votes 126 (1.7%); valid votes 7,243; quota: 1,035.

Wallace (DUP) was 96.69 votes behind Thompson (also DUP) on the final count, with an Alliance surplus of 39 undistributed. She had started out ahead, but their relative positions were reversed by transfers from Edmund's surplus of 124.79, previously transferred from Adair, of which 92.90 went to Thompson and only 15.90 to Wallace. This looks very like DUP voters simply backing the ticket alphabetically.

Boyle (SDLP)'s transfers went slightly more to Alliance than to SF, and Armstrong (Alliance) was comfortably elected on the last count when Bailie (SF) was eliminated.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP, which was the actual result.


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