Newry, Mourne and Down District Council Elections, 2014

The local authority comprises all of the old Newry and Mourne, and Down District Councils, with the inclusion of part of Ballyward from the old Banbridge district.

The 2014 election saw some interesting departures from proportionality, with SF and the SDLP winning an equal number of seats despite SF having a 7% advantage in first preference votes, and the DUP winning one seat more than the UUP despite being 5% behind on first prefs. The DUP's advantage is explained by a good performance in Rowallane, where they got two out of three Unionist seats with 1.64 quotas, and also, somewhat paradoxically, by their getting fewer votes than the UUP in no-hope areas (Crotlieve, Downpatrick, Newry).

SF failed to win a fifth seat in Slieve Gullion starting from 4.98 quotas, and were otherwise less lucky than the SDLP in the way the votes fell, with 1.6 quotas getting them one seat in Downpatrick, and 3.6 quotas getting them three in Newry; by contrast, in only one DEA (Slieve Croob) was the SDLP's vote share more than 0.22 different from a whole number of quotas. 

Alliance, disappointed elsewhere, had a particularly good election here, winning one seat with 0.6 of a first preference quota, and a second from 0.44.

map
Map by Conal Kelly



Summary

Electoral Area 2014 Results
Rowallane
2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance
The Mournes
2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UKIP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP
Slieve Croob
2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance
Crotlieve 3 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 Ind
Downpatrick 3 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 Ind
Slieve Gullion
4 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP
Newry 3 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Ind
2014 Results 2011 Notional Results
Votes by Party:
SF 22,613 (37.1%), 14 councillors
SDLP 18,568 (30.4%), 14 councillors
UUP 7,314 (12.0%) 3 councillors
DUP 4,259 (7.0%), 4 councillors
Inds 3,448 (5.7%) 3 councillors
UKIP 2,371 (3.9%) 1 councillor
Alliance 1,460 (2.4%), 2 councillors
NI21 526 (0.9%)
TUV 433 (0.7%)
Votes by Party:
SF: 23,943 (36.4%), 16 councillors
SDLP: 20,321 (30.9%), 14 councillors
UUP: 7,527 (11.5%), 5 councillors
DUP: 5,499 (8.4%), 3 councillors
UKIP: 1,910 (2.9%) 1 councillor
Green: 1,417 (2.2%)
Alliance: 1,314 (2.0%)
TUV: 425 (0.6%)
Ind: 3,335 (5.1%) 1 councillors (2 Ind Nats)

Electorate 118,997; votes cast 61,995 (52.1%); spoilt votes 1,003 (1.7%); valid votes 60,992. Electorate: XXXXX; votes cast: XXXXX; spoilt votes: XXXX (X%); valid votes: XXXXX (X%)

2011 Census: 124,059 "Catholic" (72.32%); 41,009 "Protestant" (23.91%); 862 Other (0.50%); 5,603 None (3.27%)

See also results for:
Newry and Mourne: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81
Down: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81.


Rowallane (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Down and Strangford
Includes these wards: Ballynahinch, Crossgar & Killyleagh, Derryboy, Kilmore, and Saintfield.

2014

Terry Andrews (SDLP) 1,321
Robert Burgess (UUP) 1,145
Harry Harvey (DUP) 952
Billy Walker (DUP) 943
Walter Lyons (UUP) 672
Eddie Hughes (SF) 552
Patrick Brown (Alliance) 510
Philip Hamilton (TUV) 433
Alistair Straney (NI21) 267
Mickey Coogan (Independent) 149
DUP 1,895 (27.3%) 2 seats
UUP 1,817 (26.2%) 1 seat
SDLP 1,321 (19.0%) 1 seat
SF 552 (7.9%)
Alliance 510 (7.3%) 1 seat
TUV 433 (6.2%)
NI21 267 (3.8%)
Ind 149 (2.2%)

Electorate 14,526; votes cast 7,022 (50.4%); spoilt votes 78 (1.1%); valid votes 6,944; quota: 1,158.

Lyons (UUP) finished 78.55 votes behind Brown (Alliance) on the last count. Brown's victory, from a starting point of 0.44 quotas, is impressive; but he had started well, with more transfers than any other candidate both from Andrews (SDLP)'s surplus on the second count, and from the elimination of Straney (NI21) and Coogan (Ind) on the third. On the fifth count, he was still 164 votes behind Lyons (UUP), but a crucial 42 ahead of Hughes (SF); and the latter's votes pulled him ahead. With 3.6 Unionist quotas here, and 1.6 Nationalist quotas, it was favourable territory for sneaking through the middle.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP, and Faha projected 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Ind. The Alliance gain could be seen as either from the UUP or an absent independent.


The Mournes (7 seats)

Westminster seat: South Down
Includes these wards: Annalong, Binnian, Donard, Kilkeel, Lisnacree, Murlough, and Tollymore.

2014

Henry Reilly (UKIP) 1,964
Laura Devlin (SDLP) 1,788
Willie Clarke (SF) 1,581
Seán Doran (SF) 1,513
Harold McKee (UUP) 1,352
Glyn Hanna (DUP) 973
Brian Quinn (SDLP) 796
Jill Macauley (UUP) 494
Ciaran McAvoy (Alliance) 260
Annette Holden (NI21) 148
SF 3,094 (28.5%) 2 seats
SDLP 2,584 (23.8%) 2 seats
UKIP 1,964 (18.1%) 1 seat - best UKIP result in Northern Ireland
UUP 1,846 (17.0%) 1 seat
DUP 973 (9.0%) 1 seat
Alliance 260 (2.4%)
NI21 148 (1.4%)

Electorate 20,008; votes cast 11,042 (55.2%); spoilt votes 173 (1.6%); valid votes 10,869; quota: 1,359.

Macaulay (UUP) was a pretty massive 568.66 votes behind Hanna (DUP) on the last count, with various untransferred votes which would not have changed the result much. A more balanced UUP ticket could have hoped to keep the DUP out (they got more than half of Reilly's surplus) but it would have been very tricky.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 UKIP, which was the actual result.


Slieve Croob (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Down
Includes these wards: Ballydugan, Ballyward, Castlewellan, Drumaness, and Dundrum.

2014

Stephen Burns (SF) 1,303
Garth Craig (DUP) 1,021
Pól O Gribín (SF) 940
Mark Murnin (SDLP) 784
Desmond Patterson (UUP) 718
Patrick Clarke (Alliance) 690
Audrey Byrne (SDLP) 514
Shane King (SDLP) 418
Alan Lewis (UKIP) 407
Matthew Morrison (NI21) 111
SF 2,243 (32.5%) 2 seats
SDLP 1,715 (24.8%) 1 seat
DUP 1,021 (14.8%) 1 seat
UUP 718 (10.4%)
Alliance 690 (10.0%) 1 seat
UKIP 407 (5.9%)
NI21 111 (1.6%)

Electorate 13,989; votes cast 7,031 (50.4%); spoilt votes 125 (1.8%); valid votes 6,906; quota: 1,152.

Patetrson (UUP) finished 101.51 votes behind Clarke (Alliance), with undistributed surpluses of 14 from the DUP (originating with UKIP) and 12 from SF (originating with the SDLP).

It was very tight at the end. Had the SDLP run only two candidates, and balanced them well, things could have worked out differently. The crucial moment was on the fifth count, after King's elimination, when Patterson (UUP) had 934.6 votes, Murnin (SDLP) 929.16, Clarke (Alliance) 807.84 and Byrne (SDLP) 781.76 - Clarke's 26-vote margin over Byrne, with her running-mate 121 votes ahead of him, ensured that her transfers rather than his determined the final seat, and Murnin's surplus from Byrne's votes pulled Clarke ahead. Had it been the other way round, it's quite possible that Clarke's transfers might have elected Patterson rather than Byrne, of course.

Irish Observer projected 2 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, and Faha projected 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP. This can therefore be counted a disappointing result for the SDLP and possibly the UUP, and a good one for Alliance and possibly SF.

Crotlieve (6 seats)

Westminster seat: South Down
Includes these wards: Burren, Derryleckagh, Hilltown, Mayobridge, Rostrevor, and Warrenpoint.

2014

Declan McAteer (SDLP) 1,389
Sinead Ennis (SF) 1,328
Mickey Ruane (SF) 1,195
Gillian Fitzpatrick (SDLP) 1,097
Michael Carr (SDLP) 1,008
William Mitchell (UUP) 933
Mark Gibbons (SF) 858
Connaire McGreevy (SDLP) 757
Jarlath Tinnelly (Independent) 740
Finbarr Lambe (Independent) 258
Wilma McCullough (DUP) 226
SDLP 4,251 (43.4%) 3 seats
SF 3,381 (34.5%) 2 seats
Inds 998 (10.2%) 1 seat
UUP 933 (9.5%)
DUP 226 (2.5%)

Electorate 18,279; votes cast 9,937 (54.4%); spoilt votes 148 (1.5%); valid votes 9,789; quota: 1,399.

Tinnelly (Ind) finished 75 votes ahead of Mitchell (UUP), though an undistributed SDLP surplus of 32 would have widened the gap. Unionists fell short of a quota here; after the DUP elimination, which took him to 1136, Mitchell picked up less than 20 transfers from the votes of six Nationalist candidates.

Irish Observer projected 3 SF, 3 SDLP, so this can probably be counted as an independent gain from SF.


Downpatrick (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Down
Includes these wards: Cathedral, Knocknashinna, Lecale, Quoile, and Strangford.

2014

Colin McGrath (SDLP) 1,279
Dermot Curran (SDLP) 1,076
Naomi Bailie (SF) 1,031
Gareth Sharvin (SDLP) 961
Cadogan Enright (Independent) 839
Eamonn McConvey (SF) 811
Graham Furey (UUP) 373
Yvonne Moore (DUP) 144
SDLP 3,316 (50.9%) 3 seats - best SDLP result in Northern Ireland
SF 1,842 (28.3%) 1 seat
Ind 839 (12.9%) 1 seat
UUP 373 (5.7%)
DUP 144 (2.2%)

Electorate 14,000; votes cast 6,612 (46.5%); spoilt votes 98 (1.5%); valid votes 6,514; quota: 1,086.

McConvey (SF) finished 215.95 votes behind Bailie (also SF) with Enright (Ind) 2.70 votes ahead of Bailie and an SDLP surplus of 84 yet to transfer which would have widened the gap.

Irish Observer projected 3 SDLP, 2 SF, and Faha 4 SDLP, 1 SF, so one can debate who lost a notional seat to Enright.


Slieve Gullion (7 seats)

Westminster seat: Newry and Mourne
Includes these wards: Bessbrook, Camlough, Crossmaglen, Forkhill, Mullaghbane, Newtownhamilton, and Whitecross.

2014 

Terry Hearty (SF) 2,135
Geraldine Donnelly (SDLP) 1,516
Mickey Larkin (SF) 1,411
Róisín Mulgrew (SF) 1,278
David Taylor (UUP) 1,243
Barra O Muirí (SF) 1,218
Kate Loughran (SDLP) 1,078
Daire Hughes (SF) 899
Lavelle McIlwrath (DUP) 376
SF 6,941 (62.2%) 4 seats
SDLP 2,594 (23.3%) 2 seats
UUP 1,243 (11.1%) 1 seat
DUP 376 (3.4%)

Electorate 19,834; votes cast 11,370 (57.3%); spoilt votes 216 (1.9%); valid votes 11,154; quota: 1,395.

Hughes (SF) finished 51.13 votes behind Loughran (SDLP), with another 16 untransferred from an SF surplus which would have narrowed the already tight margin. Poor balancing from SF who started with almost five quotas but missed the fifth seat. Unionist transfers were also important; 353 votes went to Taylor (UUP) from McIlwrath (DUP) when she was eliminated; when Taylor's surplus was transferred, 125 went to Loughran and none at all to Hughes. Unionists got only just over a quota here.

Irish Observer projected 4 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP, which was the actual result; Faha projected 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, which would also have been my guess from the first preferences.


Newry (6 seats)

Westminster seat: Newry and Armagh
Includes these wards: Abbey, Ballybot, Damolly, Drumalane, Fathom, and St. Patrick's.

2014

Charlie Casey (SF) 1,693
Liz Kimmins (SF) 1,567
Valerie Harte (SF) 1,300
Davy Hyland (Independent) 1,045
Gary Stokes (SDLP) 938
Peter McEvoy (SDLP) 664
Kevin McAteer (SDLP) 629
Jacinta Duffy (SDLP) 555
Joshua Lowry (UUP) 384
James Malone (Independent) 41
SF 4,560 (51.7%) 3 seats
SDLP 2,786 (31.6%) 2 seats
Inds 1,086 (12.3%) 1 seat
UUP 384 (4.4%)

Electorate 18,411; votes cast 8,981 (48.8%); spoilt votes 165 (1.8%); valid votes 8,816; quota: 1,260.

McEvoy (SDLP) finished 239.30 votes behind McAteer (also SDLP), having started 35 ahead but getting fewer transfers on five of the six subsequent counts - in particular, when Duffy was eliminated on the last count, 321 of her 809 votes went to McAteer, 130 to Stokes and only 97 to McEvoy with 261 not transferred. A fourth SF candidate, with adequate balancing, could have put Hyland under pressure.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 Ind (Hyland), which was the actual result.


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