Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency contains all of Craigavon District Council and much of Banbridge District Council. The MP is David Simpson of the DUP, who defeated David Trimble (then the UUP leader, now Lord Trimble of Lisnagarvey) in 2005. Trimble had won the 1990 by-election caused by the death of his party's deputy leader, Harold McCusker. The UUP and DUP hold two Assembly seats here, with the other two held by the SDLP and Sinn Fein (in 2003 the DUP gained a seat won by an independent Unionist in 1998). See the 1983-92 Upper Bann results. The boundary commission made no changes to Upper Bann.

See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

Upper Bann was created in 1983, was barely changed in the 1995 revision and was not changed at all in 2010.

Upper Bann's population in the 2001 census was 102,947 (3rd of the 18 constituencies).

• The average age was 35.38 (12th highest).
• 39.77% described themselves as Catholic (9th of 18 constituencies); 13.71% as Presbyterian (12th highest), 22.10% as Church of Ireland (3rd highest), 4.41% as Methodist (9th highest) and 8.06% as members of other Christian denominations (6th highest). 11.63% were "no religion or religion not stated" (11th highest).
• The translation into "Community background" was 42.87% Catholic (9th out of 18), 54.67% Protestants and other Christians (9th highest), 0.43% other religions and philosophies (5th highest) and 2.02% none (11th).

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

SF were talking up their chances of a gain here, and on the first preferences, where they got more than any other party, I thought that they had indeed taken the SDLP seat. But in fact Kelly survived by 340 votes ahead of McGibbon, benefiting from Alliance transfers and SF's traditional failure to balance here. Note also Joanne Dobson managing to win a seat from 8th place, the UUP managing their votes unusually well.

2011 local government election

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

Candidates:
*@David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
@John O'Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Electorate: 74,732; Total Poll: 41,681 (55.8%); Invalid Votes: 298 (0.7%); Valid Votes: 41,383

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

One of the seats where the Ulster Unionist-Conservative alliance needed to make significant progress, and failed to do so. Meanwhile the Natiobnalist vote creeps closer to three quotas, though on these figures, there would probably be no change in the districubtion of seats at an Assembly election (2 each for DUP and UUP, 1 each for SF and SDLP).

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

2005 Westminster election (5 May, one seat)

@David Simpson (DUP) 16,679 (37.6% +8.1%)
*@David Trimble (UUP) 11,281 (25.5% -8.0%)
@John O'Dowd (Sinn Fein) 9,305 (21.0% -0.1%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,747 (13.0% -1.9%)
Alan Castle (Alliance) 955 (2.2%)
Tom French (WP) 355 (0.8% -0.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

Trimble's loss was the most dramatic result of the election. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably give the DUP and UUP two seats each, with one each for SF and the SDLP.

2005 Local Government Election

The constituency comprises all 26 wards in Craigavon and 9 of the 17 wards in Banbridge (all 6 wards in the Banbridge Town DEA, and 3 of the 6 wards in the Knockiveagh DEA [Gilford, Lawrencetown and Loughbrickland]).

DUP 13,774.5 (31.3%)
UUP 11,191.5 (25.4%)
Sinn Fein 8,111 (18.4%)
SDLP 7,610.5 (17.3%)
Independent 1,708 (3.9%)
Alliance 1,520 (3.4%)
WP 155 (0.4%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably give the DUP and UUP two seats each, with one each for SF and the SDLP.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Reaction: The DUP gained Watson's seat, though he himself failed to be elected as a DUP candidate; better balancing would have made no difference. Likewise SF and UUP members of the last Assembly were pushed out by running-mates. The final margin was over 1600, between SF's O'Dowd and O'Hagan.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 72,574; votes cast: 51,376 (70.7%); spoilt votes: 339 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 51,037; UUP majority 2,058

* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

The DUP were cock-a-hoop at the challenge they managed to mount against Trimble in his own constituency, but even more interesting was the reversal of votes between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. A six-seat Assembly election on these figures would give the Unionist parties two seats each, and the Nationalists one each.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

UUP 15201.5 (30%)
DUP 11352.5 (23%)
SDLP 10026.5 (20%)
SF 8833.5 (18%)
Alliance 1065 (2%)
UKUP 990.5 (2%)
WP 132 (0.3%)
Independents 2790 (6%)
Total valid 50391.5

Extrapolating from the local government elections is difficult because the Upper Bann constituency breaches a local electoral area boundary. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole Upper Bann constituency. This would give the UUP two safe seats, and the DUP, SDLP and SF one each. The last seat would be most likely to go to the DUP, but an independent Unionist could not be excluded.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Upper Bann

Denis Watson succeeded in breaking through here as a dissident Unionist candidate. There were not quite enough votes for three Nationalist seats; if there had been, the loser would have been David Trimble's running-mate George Savage, leaving the party leader holding his party's only seat in his own constituency. As it was, Savage finished with 6,527 votes, well ahead of Mel Byrne's 5,878, especially with Denis Watson's surplus of 590 undistributed.

1997 Local Government Election

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 16,592 (36%) 2 seats (David Trimble MP, Samuel Gardiner elected)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 9,846 (22%) 1 seat (Brid Rodgers elected)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 7,134 (16%) 1 seat (Mervyn Carrick elected)
Sinn Féin (SF) 5,620 (12%) 1 seat (Michelle O'Connor elected)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 2,152 (5%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 1,404 (3%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 886 (2%)
Labour (Lab) 512 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 402 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 390 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 311 (1%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 180 (0.39%)
Green Party 178 (0.39%)
Democratic Partnership 71 (0.16%)
Democratic Left (DL) 36 (0.08%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 14 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 4 (0.01%)

Electorate: 69,928; votes cast: 45,781 (65.4%); spoilt votes: 49 (0.1%); valid votes: 45,732

Trimble had been elected to the 1975 Constitutional Convention, from South Belfast.

See also: Full 2003 results from Upper Bann | Full 1998 results from Upper Bann | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 8 May 2010.