Mid Ulster

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                Antrim East Antrim East Belfast East Belfast East Londonderry Foyle Foyle Fermanagh & South Tyrone Lagan
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Map and diagram by Conal Kelly

This constituency is the western shore of Lough Neagh. It takes in the whole of Magherafelt and Cookstown district councils, and the Coalisland part of Dungannon district council. The member of parliament has been Martin McGuinness (SF) since he defeated William McCrea (DUP) in 1997. Sinn Fein hold three out of six Assembly seats here, with the SDLP, UUP and DUP holding the other three (the result of all four Assembly elections since 1998). See the 1983-92 results from Mid Ulster, Fermanagh and South Tyrone and East Londonderry).

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007by "Sammy Morse".

The 1995 boundary changes to Mid Ulster were so substantial that it was only 30% the same constituency that McCrea had won in 1983, incorporating also parts of the old Fermanagh and South Tyrone and East Londonderry constituencies. But the most recent boundary commission left the constituency unchanged.

Mid Ulster's population in the 2001 census was 86,496 (13th of the 18 constituencies).

Results of recent elections


DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2011a
16.7% 10.3% 4.9% 0.9% 3.4% 14.7% 49.2%
2011lg
15.1% 12.7% 5.2% 0.2% 4.3% 16.7% 45.7%
2010w 14.4% 11.0% 7.3% 1.0%   14.3% 52.0%
2007a
19.5% 10.8% 2.7% 0.5% 1.4% 17.5% 47.6%
2005w 23.5% 10.7%

0.8% 17.4% 47.6%
2005lg 19.4% 10.3%

7.2% 17.4% 46.1%

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@Martin McGuinness MP (SF) 8,957 (21.0%)
@Ian McCrea (DUP) 7,127 (16.7%)
@Michelle O'Neill (SF) 5,178 (12.1%)
@Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 5,065 (11.9%)
Sandra Overend (UUP) 4,409 (10.3%)
@Francie Molloy (SF) 4,263 (10.0%)
Ian Milne (SF) 2,635 (6.2%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,075 (4.9%)
Austin Kelly (SDLP) 1,214 (2.8%)
Hugh McCloy (Independent) 933 (2.2%)
Michael McDonald (Alliance) 398 (0.9%)
Harry Hutchinson (PBPA) 243 (0.6%)
Gary McCann (Independent) 241 (0.6%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 21,033 (49.2%, +1.6%) 3 seats
DUP 7,127 (16.7%, -2.8%) 1 seat
SDLP 6,279 (14.7%, -2.8%) 1 seat
UUP 4,409 (10.3%, -0.5%) 1 seat
TUV 2,075 (4.9%)
Independents 1,174 (2.8%)
Alliance 398 (0.9%, +0.4%)
PBPA 243 (0.6%)

Electorate: 66,602
Votes cast: 43,522 (65.3%); spoilt votes: 784 (1.8%)
Valid votes: 42,738; quota 6,106

Not a very exciting result, with Molloy retaining the last seat by a 740 vote margin over his party colleague Milne.

2011 local government elections

Votes cast in Magherafelt, Cookstown, and the torrent DEA of Dungannon and South Tyrone:

SF 19,559 (45.7%)
SDLP 7,147 (16.7%)
DUP 6,446 (15.1%)
UUP 5,440 (12.7%)
TUV 2,230 (5.2%)
Ind Rep 850 (2.0%)
Alliance 92 (0.2%)
Ind 993 (2.3%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would have given SF three seats and the SDLP, DUP and UUP one each.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 21,239 (52.0%, +4.4%)
@ Ian McCrea (DUP) 5,876 (14.4%, -9.1%)
Tony Quinn (SDLP) 5,826 (14.3%, -3.1%)
Sandra Overend (UCUNF) 4,509 (11.0%, +0.3%)
Walter Millar (TUV) 2,995 (7.3%)
Ian Butler (Alliance) 397 1.0%
Electorate: 64,594; Total Poll: 41,139 (63.7%); Invalid Votes: 297 (0.7%); Valid Votes: 40,842

A solid hold for McGuinness, and another seat where the TUV failed to hit the big time. If cast in a six-seat Assembly eletion, these votes would probably see no change in the distribtuion of MLAs between the parties, SF not quite being in position to win a fourth seat yet.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Martin McGuinness MP (SF) 8065 (18.2%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 7608 (17.2%)
*Francis Molloy (SF) 6597 (14.9%)
Michelle O'Neill (SF) 6432 (14.5%)
*Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 4976 (11.2%)
*Billy Armstrong (UUP) 4781 (10.8%)
Kathleen Lagan (SDLP) 2759 (6.2%)
Walter Millar (UKUP) 1210 (2.7%)
Elizabeth Forde (DUP) 1021 (2.3%)
Brendan McLaughlin (RSF) 437 (1.0%)
Margaret Marshall (Alliance) 221 (0.5%)
Harry Hutchinson (Independent) 170 (0.4%)

*Elected in 2003 from Mid Ulster
SF 21,094 (47.6%, +2.1%) 3 seats
DUP 8,629 (19.5%, -1.3%) 1 seat
SDLP 7,735 (17.5%, -0.9%) 1 seat
UUP 4,781 (10.8%, -3.6%) 1 seat
UKUP 1,210 (2.7%)
RSF 437 (1.0%)
Alliance 221 (0.5%, +0.1%)
Hutchinson 170 (0.4%)

Electorate 61,223 
Votes cast 44,728 (73.1%); spoilt votes 451 (1.0%) 
Valid votes 44,277; quota 6,326

No change here. Lagan (SDLP) was 2824 votes behind Armstrong (UUP) on the final count, with Armstrong 28 votes over quota and undistributed Nationalist surpluses totalling 210.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) 21,641 (47.6% -3.5%)
Ian McCrea (DUP) 10,665 (23.5% -7.6%)
@Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 7,922 (17.4% +0.6%)
@Billy Armstrong (UUP) 4,853 (10.7%)
Francis Donnelly (WP) 345 (0.8% -0.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would give Sinn Fein three seats, the SDLP one, and the DUP one, with the last between the DUP and UUP.

2005 Local Government Election

Votes cast in Cookstown, Magherafelt and the Torrent DEA of Dungannon were as follows:

Sinn Fein 17,828 (46.1%)
DUP 7,495 (19.4%)
SDLP 6,581 (17.0%)
UUP 3,991 (10.3%)
Independents 2,599 (6.7%)
WP 102 (0.3%)
Socialist Party 84 (0.2%)

NB that there was no contest in the Ballinderry DEA of Cookstown, as only six candidates stood for six seats; if there had been, the overall vote share for SF would probably have been a little lower, and those of the UUP and SDLP a bit higher. If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would have given SF three seats and the DUP, SDLP and UUP one each.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
*William McCrea (DUP) 8211 (18.5%)
*Martin McGuinness (SF) 8128 (18.3%)
Geraldine Dougan (SF) 5827 (13.1%)
*Francis Molloy (SF) 5255 (11.8%)
*Billy Armstrong (UUP) 4323 (9.7%)
Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 4295 (9.7%)
*Denis Haughey (SDLP) 3843 (8.7%)
Trevor Wilson (UUP) 2071 (4.7%)
Alan Miller (DUP) 1029 (2.3%)
Cora Groogan (SF) 984 (2.2%)
Francis Donnelly (WP) 230 (0.5%)
James Holmes (Alliance) 166 (0.4%)
SF 20,194 (45.5%, +4.7%) 3 seats
DUP 9,240 (20.8%, -0.6%) 1 seat
SDLP 8,138 (18.3%, -3.9%) 1 seat
UUP 6,394 (14.4%, +0.5%) 1 seat
WP 230 (0.5%, +0.1%)
Alliance 166 (0.4%, -0.6%)

Electorate 60,095 
Votes cast 45,023 (74.9%); spoilt votes 661 (1.5%) 
Valid votes 44,362; quota 6,338 

Reaction: No change in party strengths, though Denis Haughey lost to running-mate Patsy McGlone by 634 votes.

Mid Ulster had lost 7.26% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, less than any other constituency, varying from 12.34% in the Coalisland South ward of Dungannon to 3.29% in the Upperlands ward of Magherafelt.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*@Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein) 25,667 (51.1%)
McCrea, Ian (DUP) 15,549 (31.1%)
Haughey, Eilis (SDLP) 8,376 (16.8%)
Donnelly, Francie (WP) 509 (1.0%)

Electorate: 61,390; votes cast: 50,388 (82.0%); spoilt votes: 452 (0.9%)
Valid votes: 49,936; SF majority 9,953

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

Another good result for SF, increasing their vote in their second strongest constituency. A six-seat Assembly election on these figures would have given them three seats, the DUP two and SDLP one.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

SF 20800 (41%)
SDLP 10159 (20%)
DUP 8378 (17%)
UUP 7209 (15%)
WP 104 (0.2%)
Inds 2919 (6%)
Total valid votes 38,646 (75.74% of electorate)

If these votes had been cast in a six-seat STV election, Sinn Fein would have won three seats and the SDLP, DUP and UUP one each.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.
 
*William McCrea (DUP) 10,339
#Martin McGuinness (SF) 8,703
Denis Haughey (SDLP) 6,410
*Francie Molloy (SF) 6,008
John Kelly (SF) 5,594
*Patsy McGlone (SDLP) 4,666 
Billy Armstrong (UUP) 4,498
*John Junkin (UUP) 2,440 
Yvonne Boyle (Alliance) 497 
Paul McLean (DUP) 307 
Francie Donnelly (WP) 207 
Harry Hutchinson (Pro-Agreement Socialist) 91 
Mary Daly (NLP) 38
SF 20,305 (40.77%) 3 seats
SDLP 11,076 (22.24%) 1 seat
DUP 10,646 (21.38%) 1 seat
UUP 6,938 (13.93%) 1 seat
All 497 (1.00%) 
WP 207 (0.42%) 
Soc 91 (0.18%) 
NLP 38 (0.08%) 

Electorate: 59,991 
Votes cast 50,622 (84.4%); spoilt votes 824 (1.6%) 
Valid votes 49,798; quota: 7,115

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Mid Ulster
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Foyle

The third Sinn Féin seat took everyone by surprise, though it had been presaged in Martin McGuinness' victory in the 1997 Westminster election. Patsy McGlone of the SDLP began in sixth place, but there were not enough SDLP votes to elect him and he was overtaken by the UUP when their second candidate was eliminated. Had the two SDLP candidates balanced their votes slightly better, UUP transfers would have elected McGlone at the expense of Captain Kelly. As it was Kelly was ahead on the last count by 5,914 to 5,076, with an undistributed UUP surplus of 352 votes which might have narrowed the gap.

1997 Local Government Election

Sinn Féin 13,845 votes (36%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 8,914 votes (23%)
Ulster Unionist Party 7,012 votes (18%)
Democratic Unionist Party 6,673 votes (17%)
Independent 1,183 votes (3%)
Independent Unionist 741 votes (2%)
Workers Party 140 votes (0.36%)
Labour 73 votes (0.19%)
Independent Nationalist 53 votes (0.14%)
Green Party 12 votes (0.03%)
Total valid votes 38,646 (75.74% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

ƒMartin McGuinness (Sinn Féin) 20,294 (40%)
*ƒWilliam McCrea (Democratic Unionist Party) 18,411 (36%)
Denis Haughey (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 11,205 (22%)
Ephrem Bogues (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 460 (1%)
Marian Donnelly (Workers' Party) 238 (0.47%)
Maureen Murray (Natural Law Party) 61 (0.12%)
Turnout 50,669 (86.12%)

* outgoing MP
ƒ member of the Forum

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Sinn Féin (SF) 13,001 (30%); Francie Molloy, Patrick Groogan elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 12,492 (28%); Patsy McGlone elected
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 7,935 (18%); John Junkin elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 7,243 (17%); Rev William McCrea elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 549 (1%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 435 (1%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 380 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 375 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 271 (1%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 263 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 259 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 210 (0.48%)
Green Party 132 (0.30%)
Conservative Party (Con) 119 (0.27%)
Democratic Partnership 93 (0.21%)
Democratic Left (DL) 41 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 24 (0.05%)
Independent Chambers 20 (0.05%)

Electorate: 57,683; votes cast: 44,001 (76.2%); spoilt votes: 159 (0.3%); valid votes: 43,842

McCrea had been elected to the 1982 Assembly from Mid-Ulster.

Results 1996-2007


DUP UUP Oth U Alliance Oth SDLP SF
2007a
19% 11% 3% 0% 1% 17% 48%
2005w 23% 11%

1% 17% 48%
2005lg 19% 10%

7% 17% 46%
2003a 21% 14%
0% 1% 18% 46%
2001w 31%


1% 17% 51%
2001lg 17% 15%

6% 20% 41%
1998a 21% 14%
1% 1% 22% 41%
1997lg 17% 18% 2%
3% 23% 36%
1997w 36%

1% 1% 22% 40%
1996f 17% 18% 3% 1% 3% 28% 30%

 


See also: Full 2003 results from Mid Ulster | Full 1998 results from Mid Ulster | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 
This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 9 May 2010.



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