Mid and East Antrim District Council Elections, 2014

The new council is made up of the old Ballymena, Carrickfergus, and Larne Borough Councils in their entirety.

In a very good year, the DUP should look at this new district as one where they might win an outright majority of the 40 seats. In 2014, however, their vote dropped by 9% from 2011 and they won three fewer seats than the notional results from the previous elections. The DUP do have some cause for cheer, however; wining 40% of the seats with 32% of the vote is impressive in a proportional election, and there were several cases where good balancing prevented a worse outcome.

The net beneficiary of the DUP's slippage was the TUV, who almost doubled their vote share and became the third largest party. The TUV's performance in the three western DEAs, combined with the decent outcome across the district boundary, makes their party leader's Assembly seat look pretty secure, though they won only one seat farther east, and that was relatively close.

The UUP edged forward a little, and the Alliance Party slightly back; the Nationalist parties remained as they were in terms of seats, though the gap between SF and the SDLP continues to widen and the Nationalist vote share was down here as in most places.


map
Map by Conal Kelly



Summary

Electoral Area 2014 Results
Knockagh 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
Larne Lough
2 UUP, 2 DUP, 1 Alliance
Braid 4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 TUV, 1 SF
Bannside 2 DUP, 2 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 SF
Carrick Castle
2 DUP, 1 Ind, 1 UUP, 1 UKIP
Coast Road
1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 TUV
Ballymena 3 DUP, 1 Ind, 1 TUV, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP
2014 Results 2011 Notional Results
Votes by Party:
DUP 15.093 (33.0%), 16 councillors
UUP 8,577 (18.8%), 9 councillors
TUV 6,863 (15.0%), 5 councillors
Alliance 4,277 (9.4%), 3 councillors
Inds 2,761 (6.0%), 2 councillors
SF: 3,118 (6.8%), 3 councillors
SDLP 1,864 (4.1%), 1 councillor
PUP 1,352 (3.0%)
NI21 783 (1.7%)
UKIP 749 (1.6%), 1 councillor
BNP 174 (0.4%)
Cons 107 (0.2%)
Votes by Party:
DUP: 19,729 (42.0%), 19 councillors
UUP: 7,876 (16.8%), 8 councillors
Alliance: 5,102 (10.9%), 4 councillors
TUV: 4,043 (8.6%), 2 councillors
SF: 2,769 (5.9%) 3 councillors
SDLP: 2,712 (5.8%) 1 councillor
Green: 404 (0.9%)
BNP: 182 (0.4%)
PUP: 146 (0.3%)
Ind: 4,018 (8.6%) 3 councillors

Electorate: 96,494; votes cast: 46,269 (48.9%); spoilt votes: 551 (1.2%); valid votes: 45,718 Electorate: 92,809; votes cast: 50,179; spoilt votes: 768 (1.5%); valid votes: 49,411 (98.5%)


2011 Census: 26,181 "Catholic" (19.34%); 98,639 "Protestant" (72.88%); 1,087 Other (0.80%); 9,431 None (6.97%)

The notional results given above are my best guess projection of the 2011 results on the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather than a forecast.

See also results for:
Ballymena: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81
Carrickfergus: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81.
Larne: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81.


Knockagh (5 seats)

Westminster seat: East Antrim
Includes these wards: Burleigh Hill, Gortalee, Greenisland, Sunnylands, and Woodburn.

2014

Andrew Wilson (UUP) 912
May Beattie (DUP) 854
Lindsay Millar (UUP) 581
Ken McFaul (TUV) 557
Paul Sinclair (Alliance) 479
Robert Stewart (DUP) 477
Noel Williams (Alliance) 417
Lynn McClurg (DUP) 360
Robert Harrison-Rice (DUP) 313
Gareth Cole (PUP) 301
Jim McCaw (PUP) 156
Gary Broad (Cons) 107
Barry Patterson (Independent) 104
DUP 2,004 (35.7%) 2 seats
UUP 1,493 (26.6%) 2 seats
Alliance 896 (15.9%) 1 seat
TUV 557 (9.9%)
PUP 457 (8.1%)
Cons 107 (1.9%)
Ind 104 (1.9%)

Electorate 12,090; total poll 5,683 (47.0%); invalid votes 65 (1.1%); valid votes 5,618; quota 937.

McFaul (TUV) ended 62.08 votes behind Millar (UUP), with a DUP surplus of 0.37 undistributed. On the previous count, Stewart (DUP) was only 23 votes behind McClurg (DUP) when he was eliminated; she squeaked over the quota on his transfers.

NB that Andrew Wilson, elected here for the UUP, is not the same person as Andrew Wilson, elected for the UUP in neighbouring Larne Lough.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 APNI, 1 UUP, so this can be counted as a UUP gain from the DUP.


Larne Lough (5 seats)

Westminster seat: East Antrim
Includes these wards: Ballycarry & Glynn, Curran & Inver, Islandmagee, Kilwaughter, and Whitehead South.

2014

Gregg McKeen (DUP) 966
Mark McKinty (UUP) 927
Andrew Wilson (UUP) 836
Kenneth Johnston (TUV) 606
Robert Logan (Alliance) 583
Jeremy Jones (NI21) 572
Paul Reid (DUP) 457
Matthew Scott (DUP) 307
Michael Lynch (Alliance) 303
Seán Waide (SF) 128
UUP 1,763 (31.0%) 2 seats
DUP 1,730 (30.4%) 2 seats
Alliance 886 (15.6%) 1 seat
TUV 606 (10.7%)
NI21 572 (10.1%)
SF 128 (2.3%)

Electorate 12,826; total poll 5,757 (44.9%); invalid votes 72 (1.3%); valid votes 5,685; quota 948.

Johnston (TUV) finished 127.18 votes behind Reid (DUP), with a UUP surplus of just under 13 votes undistributed. Alliance benefited from both SF and NI21 transfers.

NB that Andrew Wilson, elected here for the UUP, is not the same person as Andrew Wilson, elected for the UUP in neighbouring Knockagh.

Faha projected 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, which was the actual result. Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Ind; there were no independent candidates in 2014.


Braid (7 seats)

Westminster seat: North Antrim
Includes these wards: Ballee & Harryville, Broughshane, Glenravel, Glenwhirry, Kells, Kirkinriola, and Slemish.

2014

Robin Cherry (UUP) 961
William McCaughey (DUP) 932
Brian Collins (TUV) 912
Beth Adger (DUP) 891
Beth Clyde (DUP) 865
Samuel Hanna (DUP) 800
Paul Maguire (SF) 722
Roy McPeake (TUV) 597
Chris Wales (DUP) 569
Brian Thompson (UUP) 559
Catherine O'Hara (SDLP) 524
Danny Donnelly (Alliance) 299
William Parkhill (PUP) 183
DUP 4,057 (46.0%) 4 seats
UUP 1,520 (17.2%) 1 seat
TUV 1,509 (17.1%) 1 seat
SF 722 (8.2%) 1 seat
SDLP 524 (5.9%)
Alliance 299 (3.4%)
PUP 183 (2.1%)

Electorate 16,543; total poll 8,902 (53.8%); invalid votes 88 (1.0%); valid votes 8,814; quota 1,102.

Thompson (UUP) finished 80.99 votes behind Hanna (DUP) on the last count.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 4 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, so this can probably be counted as a TUV gain from the UUP.


Bannside (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Antrim
Includes these wards: Ahoghill, Cullybackey, Galgorm, Grange, Maine, and Portglenone.

2014

Timothy Gaston (TUV) 1,212
Patrice Hardy (SF) 1,035
Stewart McDonald (TUV) 951
William McNeilly (UUP) 867
Tommy Nicholl (DUP) 777
Thomas Gordon (DUP) 673
Andrew Wright (UUP) 668
Billy Henry (DUP) 601
Phil Moffatt (DUP) 582
Philip Burnside (Alliance) 450
DUP 2,633 (33.7%) 2 seats
TUV 2,163 (27.7%) 2 seats - TUV's best result in Northern Ireland
UUP 1,535 (19.6%) 1 seat
SF 1,035 (13.2%) 1 seat
Alliance 450 (5.8%)

Electorate 14,039; total poll 7,921 (56.4%); invalid votes 105 (1.3%); valid votes 7,816; quota 1,117.

Wright (UUP) finished 264.26 votes behind McNeilly (also UUP) with a DUP surplus of 153 undistributed. On the penultimate count, Wright (UUP) and Gordon (DUP) were both less than 7 votes behind Henry (DUP); there were certainly enough DUP votes to elect Gordon or Henry, but the latter had a narrow squeak.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 SF, so this can probably be counted as a TUV gain from the DUP.


Carrick Castle (5 seats)

Westminster seat: East Antrim
Includes these wards: Boneybefore, Castle, Kilroot, Love Lane, and Victoria.

2014

John Stewart (UUP) 939
James Brown (Independent) 882
Billy Ashe (DUP) 749
Noel Jordan (UKIP) 749
Gavin Norris (Alliance) 504
Cheryl Johnston (DUP) 439
Fred Cobain (DUP) 398
Elena Aceves-Cully (Alliance) 342
William Knox (TUV) 338
Jonathan Cooke (PUP) 248
Nick Wady (Independent) 131
John Cameron (Independent) 105
DUP 1,586 (27.2%) 2 seats
Inds 1,118 (19.2%) 1 seat
UUP 939 (16.1%) 1 seat
Alliance 846 (14.5%)
UKIP 749 (12.9%) 1 seat
TUV 338 (5.8%)
PUP 248 (4.3%)

Electorate 12,878; total poll 5,893 (45.8%); invalid votes 69 (1.2%); valid votes 5,824; quota 971.

Norris (Alliance) was 18.43 votes behind Johnston (DUP) on the last count. Although the Alliance Party started with 0.85 of a quota, which would normally give a decent chance of success, it picked up very few external transfers, and a decent internal transfer from Aceves-Cully to Norris was not enough.

Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 Ind, and Faha 3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP. So we can likely count this as a UKIP gain and an Alliance loss, and debate whether James Brown held his seat at the expense of the DUP.


Coast Road (5 seats)

Westminster seat: East Antrim
Includes these wards: Cairncastle, Carnlough & Glenarm, Craigyhill, Gardenmore, and The Maidens.

2014

Maureen Morrow (UUP) 946
James McKeown (SF) 756
Gordon Lyons (DUP) 660
Geraldine Mulvenna (Alliance) 590
Ruth Wilson (TUV) 575
Drew Niblock (DUP) 484
Jonathan Hodge (PUP) 464
Martin Wilson (SDLP) 416
Danny O'Connor (Independent) 188
John Anderson (Independent) 133
Robert Bell (BNP) 101
Steven Moore (BNP) 73
DUP 1,144 (21.2%) 1 seat
UUP 946 (17.5%) 1 seat
SF 756 (14.0%) 1 seat
Alliance 590 (10.9%) 1 seat
TUV 575 (10.7%) 1 seat
PUP 464 (8.6%)
SDLP 416 (7.7%)
Inds 321 (5.9%)
BNP 174 (3.2%)

Electorate 12,427; total poll 5,444 (43.8%); invalid votes 58 (1.1%); valid votes 5,386; quota 898.

Hodge (PUP) finished 185.40 votes behind Wilson (TUV).

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance, so this can probably count as a TUV gain from the DUP.

Ballymena (7 seats)

Westminster seat: North Antrim
Includes these wards: Academy, Ardeevin, Ballykeel, Braidwater, Castle Demesne, Fair Green, and Park.

2014

James Henry (Independent) 1,042
Donna Anderson (TUV) 738
Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 635
Audrey Wales (DUP) 598
John Carson (DUP) 582
Marian Maguire (SF) 477
Reuben Glover (DUP) 427
Stephen Nicholl (UUP) 381
Matthew Armstrong (TUV) 377
David McCartney (DUP) 332
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 310
Eugene Reid (SDLP) 289
Richard Marshall (NI21) 211
Rodney Quigley (Independent) 176
DUP 1,939 (29.5%) 3 seats
Inds 1,218 (18.5%) 1 seat
TUV 1,115 (17.0%) 1 seat
SDLP 924 (14.1%) 1 seat
SF 477 (7.3%)
UUP 381 (5.8%) 1 seat
Alliance 310 (4.7%)
NI21 211 (3.2%)

Electorate 15,691; total poll 6,669 (42.5%); invalid votes 94 (1.4%); valid votes 6,575; quota 822.

Maguire (SF) finished 42 votes behind Glover (DUP), with an undistributed DUP surplus of 37 which would have widened the gap. The DUP were fortunate to squeeze a third seat out of 2.36 quotas here, and the UUP also fortunate to get a seat with 0.46 of a quota; better balancing from the TUV would have given them a decent shot at a second seat.

Irish Observer projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV, 1 Ind, which was the actual result. Faha projected 3 DUP, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 TUV, which turned out to be an overestimate of Nationalist strength (in fact only 1.70 quotas).


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