Belfast City Council

The Belfast City Council comprises of the entire previous authority, plus 20% of the old Lisburn Council, 40% of the old Castlereagh Council, and the very small Cedar Grove area from North Down Council.

The 2019 elections saw a decent shake-up in Belfast with ten seats changing hands. The big loser in Belfast was the UUP, who lost five of the seven seats won in 2014. The Green Party picked up three of these while the DUP and Alliance gained the other two. Sinn Fein lost seats in Collin (to PBP) and Titanic (to Alliance) but partially off-set with a gain in Black Mountain from the SDLP. They remain the largest party on the council with 18 seats, followed by the DUP on 15.

Map by Conal Kelly

Summary

Votes by Party

2011 Census: 163,006 "Catholic" (48.82%); 141,790 "Protestant" (42.47%); 5,238 Other (1.57%); 23,837 None (7.14%)

The notional results given above are my best guess projection of the 2011 results on the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather than a forecast. 

See also results for:
Belfast: 1993-2011, 1985-89, and 1973-81

Ormiston (7 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast
Includes these wards: Belmont, Garnerville, Gilnahirk, Knock, Sandown, Shandon, and Stormont.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 25,617; votes cast: 13,432 (52.4%); invalid votes: 147 (1.1%); valid votes: 13,285; quota: 1,661.

Hussey (DUP) was 611.28 ahead of Johnston (UUP) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 522.96 (DUP), 36.84 (UUP), and 2.24 (Green), which would have narrowed the final margin. This was Alliance's best performance of the 2019 election across all 60 Electoral Areas in Northern Ireland.

2014 (25 May)

Titanic (6 seats)

Westminster seat: East Belfast
Includes these wards: Ballymacarrett, Beersbridge, Bloomfield, Connswater, Sydenham, and Woodstock.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 22,653; votes cast: 9,652 (42.6%); invalid votes: 184 (1.9%); valid votes: 9,468; quota: 1,353.

Howard (Alliance) was 173.24 ahead of O'Donnell (SF) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 57.28 (UUP) and 15.7 (PUP), which would have widened the final margin. Despite finishing second in first preferences and having 0.81 of a quota, O'Donnell only attracted 43 transfers across the subsequent seven counts.

2014 (25 May)

Botanic (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast
Includes these wards: Blackstaff, Central, Ormeau, Stranmillis, and Windsor.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 21,987; votes cast: 9,842 (44.8%); invalid votes: 104 (1.1%); valid votes: 9,738; quota: 1,624.

McKeown (SDLP) was a comfortable 568.95 ahead of Craig (DUP) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 494.68 (Alliance) and 8 (Green), which would have further widened the final margin.

2014 (25 May)

Court (6 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast and North Belfast
Includes these wards: Ballygomartin, Clonard, Falls, Forth River, Shankill, and Woodvale..

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 22,116; votes cast: 11,528 (52.1%); invalid votes: 218 (1.9%); valid votes: 11,310; quota: 1,616.

Black (SF) was 549.81 ahead of McCaffrey (PBP) for the last seat, with a modest PUP surplus of 6.32 undistributed, which would have had negligible impact.

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 20,881; total poll: 11,809 (56.6%); invalid votes 304 (2.6%); valid votes 11,505; quota 1,644.

The published results sheet shows Manwaring (UUP) as only 17.36 votes behind Bunting (TUV) on the final count, with an SF surplus of 88 (transferred to McConville from the SDLP's Keenan) undistributed. Granted, it is unlikely that these transfers would have helped Manwaring - most of them would have been aborbed by McVeigh (SF), who was still 97 votes short of the quota. But it is an odd incompleteness in the record.

Better balancing from the DUP would certainly have given them a good chance of winning all three Unionist seats.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP plus 1 Ind (McCoubrey, who had meantime joined the DUP), 2 SF. This could therefore be seen as TUV and PUP gains from the DUP, taking into account McCoubrey's change of allegiance.

Lisnasharragh (6 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast and East Belfast
Includes these wards: Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok, Orangefield, Ravenhill, and Rosetta.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 20,783; votes cast: 11,182 (53.8%); invalid votes: 116 (1.0%); valid votes: 11,066; quota: 1,581.

De Faoite (SDLP) was 433.76 ahead of McGimpsey (UUP) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 201.89 (DUP), 98.51 (Green) and 1.98 (Alliance), which would have likely narrowed the final margin.

2014 (25 May)

Hussey (DUP) finished 202.01 votes behind Sandford (also DUP), with an undistributed Alliance surplus (originating from SF!) of 47.5.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, whch was the actual result.

Castle (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Belfast
Includes these wards: Bellevue, Cavehill, Chichester Park, Duncairn, Fortwilliam, and Innisfayle.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 22,262; votes cast: 11,436 (51.4%); invalid votes: 136 (1.2%); valid votes: 11,300; quota: 1,615.

Whyte (SDLP - no relation to me, as far as I know) was 209.65 ahead of Campbell (SF) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 168.35 (DUP) and 35 (SF), which may have slightly widened the final margin. Good vote balancing by the DUP. Nice performance by the Greens, starting with just over half a quota of first preferences.

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 20,977; total poll: 10,573 (51.3%); invalid votes 175 (1.6%); valid votes 10,578; quota 1,512.

Cunningham (SF) finished 112.63 votes behind Browne (UUP), himself only 5 behind Patterson (DUP), with an Alliance surplus of 37 undistributed. The DUP balance was very impressive, the initial 63-vote margin between their candidates narrowing to 27 at the end, and better balancing by SF probably would not have made a difference; in the end the votes and transfers weren't there.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, so this can be counted a notional Alliance gain from SF.

Balmoral (5 seats)

Westminster seat: South Belfast
Includes these wards: Belvoir, Finaghy, Malone, Musgrave, and Upper Malone.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 17,864; votes cast: 9,326 (52.2%); invalid votes: 116 (1.2%); valid votes: 9,210; quota: 1,536.

McAteer (SF) was 188.8 ahead of Mulhern (SDLP) for the last seat, with another SDLP surplus of 72.94 undistributed, which would have narrowed the final margin.

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 17,107; total poll: 9,032 (52.8%); invalid votes 131 (1.5%); valid votes 8,901; quota 1,484.

Clarke (DUP) was 101.3 votes behind Dudgeon (UUP) on the last count, with Stalford (also DUP) 64.96 ahead of her - so a perfect DUP balance would not have been enough to win two seats.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 UUP, which was the actual result.

Oldpark (6 seats)

Westminster seat: North Belfast
Includes these wards: Ardoyne, Ballysillan, Cliftonville, Legoniel, New Lodge, and Water Works.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 22,024; votes cast: 11,545 (52.4%); invalid votes: 218 (1.9%); valid votes: 11,327; quota: 1,619.

Ferguson (PBP) was 163.98 ahead of Simpson (DUP) for the last seat, with another Sinn Fein surplus of 61.72 undistributed, which would have widened the final margin. There was 1.9 Unionist quotas on first preferences but diluted across four candidates.

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 20,888; total poll: 10,793 (51.7%); invalid votes 258 (2.4%); valid votes 10,535; quota 1,506.

Fennell (Ind) finished 161.14 votes behind Mallon (SDLP), with an SF surplus of 121 undistributed which might have narrowed the margin.

Corr's winning a seat from barely half a quota of first preferences looks impressive at first sight, but in fact there were 2.2 Unionist quotas, and given the DUP's poor balancing the second seat was always likely to go to the strongest placed of the rest; Corr's ten-vote margin over Reynolds (DUP) on the first count was also boosted by TUV and UUP transfers.

Better balancing between the SF candidates could have kept all four ahead of Fennell (Ind), and they might then have benefited from his transfers sufficiently to out-distance Mallon (SDLP) for the fourth Nationaliost seat - but it would have been very tight at the end.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 SF, 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, so this can probably be counted as a notional PUP gain from the DUP.

Collin (6 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast
Includes these wards: Dunmurry, Ladybrook, Lagmore, Poleglass, Stewartstown, and Twinbrook.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 23,300; votes cast: 12,323 (52.9%); invalid votes: 221 (1.8%); valid votes: 12,102; quota: 1,729.

Garrett (SF) was 196.95 ahead of O'Hara (also of SF) for the last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 9.96 (PBP) and 33.07 (SF).

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 20,017; total poll: 11,360 (51.6%); invalid votes 202 (1.8%); valid votes 11,158; quota 1,512.

Burke (NI21) was a pretty massive 620.87 votes behind Groves (SF) on the final count, with an SDLP surplus of 29 and SF surpluses totalling 177 undistributed. She had done well to suvive that far, outlasting three other candidates who had gained more first preferences - Alliance transfers pulled her ahead of the UUP, and UUP transfers then put her ahead of both Éirígí and the SDLP's second runner.

Irish Observer and Faha both projected 5 SF, 1 SDLP, which was the actual result.

Black Mountain (7 seats)

Westminster seat: West Belfast
Includes these wards: Andersonstown, Ballymurphy, Beechmount, Collin Glen, Falls Park, Shaw's Road, and Turf Lodge.

2019 (2 May)

Electorate: 26,022; votes cast: 14,398 (55.3%); invalid votes: 345 (2.4%); valid votes: 14,053; quota: 1,757.

Groves (SF) was 157.75 ahead of Doherty (SDLP) for the last seat, with a SF surplus of 16.95 undistributed, which would have widened the final margin. Black Mountain represented both Sinn Fein and People Before Profit's best performance across all 80 Electoral Areas. It is also the only seven seat DEA where a single party captured six seats.

2014 (25 May)

Electorate: 25,146; total poll: 14,311 (56.9%); invalid votes 369 (2.6%); valid votes 13,492; quota 1,743.

Mhic Giolla Mhin (SF) was only 8.43 votes behind Beattie (SF) on the final count, but was 104 behind Attwood (SDLP). A perfect balance between all six SF candidates could in theory have kept Attwood out, but it would have required an implausible level of finesse.

Irish Observer projected 6 SF, 1 SDLP, and Faha projected 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Éirígí, so it can be debated who PBP made their gain from.

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