I received 255 predictions for this year's contest, but have not had
time to process them all onto this provisional results page - but don't
worry, if you got an email from me your prediction has been factored
in. Here are the first 144 predictions, submitted before last weekend.
I have not been able to do the same sort of detailed analysis for all
entries (believe it or not, folks, I don't do this for a living!) but
if you want to peruse the raw data.it is here.
Constituencies in
increasing order of unpredictability
North Antrim Average prediction: DUP 3.0, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0, UUP 1.0 130 (90%) expect no change.
5 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the DUP.
Mid Ulster Average prediction: SF 3.0, DUP 1.1, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.9 124 (86%) expect no change.
13 (9%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect an independent gain from SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and an independent to gain from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from SF East Antrim:
Average prediction: DUP 3.0, UUP 2.0, Alliance 0.9, SDLP 0.1 120 (83%)
expect no change 7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
6 (4%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and SF to gain from Alliance and the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from Alliance.
Foyle Average prediction: SDLP 2.8, SF 2.2, DUP 1.0 119 (83%) expect no
change.
20 (14%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
3 (2%) expect an independent gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP and SF to gain from the SDLP and DUP. South Down Average prediction: 2.0 SDLP, 2.0 SF, 1.0 DUP, 0.9 UUP 112 (78%) expect no change.
7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
7 (5%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
6 (4%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP. East Belfast
Average prediction: DUP 2.8, UUP 2.0, Alliance 1.0, PUP 0.2 105 (73%) expect the DUP to gain
from the PUP.
22 (15%) expect no change.
9 (6%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the PUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the PUP and
Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the PUP and UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and UUP to gain from the PUP and Alliance.
Upper Bann Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.8, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0 103 (72%) expect no change.
31 (22%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain both the UUP seats.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.
Fermanagh and
South Tyrone Average prediction: SF 2.1, DUP 1.8, UUP 1.2, SDLP 1.0 102 (71%)
expect the DUP to keep their defection gain from the UUP. 26 (18%) expect the UUP to recoup their loss
by defection to the DUP.
4 (3%) expect SF to gain from the UUP (plus DUP keep their
defection gain)
4 (3%) expect the DUP to lose their defection gain to SF.
3 (2%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP (plus DUP keep their defection
gain)
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose their defection gain to the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose their defection gain to the UKUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from SF (plus DUP keep their
defection gain)
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the SDLP (plus DUP keep their
defection gain)
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to recoup their defection loss and SF to gain
the DUP's other seat.
West Belfast
Average prediction: SF 4.3, SDLP 0.9, DUP 0.8 96 (67%) expect no change.
33 (23%) expect SF to gain from the DUP.
10 (7%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect an independent gain from SF.
1 wild-eyed optimist (0.7%) expects Alliance to gain the DUP seat.
Newry and Armagh
Average prediction: SF 2.7, SDLP 1.2, UUP 1.0, DUP 0.9, Ind 0.1, other Unionist 0.1 95 (66%) expect no change.
25 (17%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
10 (7%) expect an independent gain from SF.
5 (3%) expect an "other Unionist" to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the SDLP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and the SDLP from SF and the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an "other Unionist" and the SDLP from SF and the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and an "other Unionist" from the UUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects gains by an independent and an "other Unionist" from the DUP and SF.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent and the Greens to gain two seats from SF.
North Down Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.9, Alliance 0.9, UKUP 0.8, Green 0.1 88 (61%) expect no change.
15 (10%) expect the DUP to gain from the UKUP.
10 (7%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
7 (5%) expect the Greens to gain from the UKUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from the DUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the Greens to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UUP to gain from the UKUP.
2 (1%) expect the Conservatives to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the UKUP and UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP and the Greens to gain from the DUP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the PUP to gain from the UKUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Conservatives to gain from Alliance.
North Belfast
Average prediction: DUP 2.3, SF 2.0, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.6 87 (60%) expect no change.
51 (35%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (2%) expect the SDLP to gain from SF.
1 (0.7%) expects an "other Unionist" gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
West Tyrone Average prediction: SF 2.4, DUP 1.1, SDLP 1.0, UUP 0.9, Kieran Deeny 0.7 74 (51%) expect no change.
30 (21%) expect SF to gain from Deeny.
11 (8%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
11 (8%) expect the SDLP to gain from Deeny.
3 (0.7%) expect SF and the DUP to gain from Deeny and the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Deeny.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the SDLP to gain from Deeny and the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the DUP to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects an independent gain from the SDLP.
Strangford Average prediction: DUP 3.1, UUP 1.7, Alliance 0.8, SDLP 0.3, UKUP 0.1 74 (51%) expect no change.
23 (16%) expect the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
17 (12%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
7 (5%) expect the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
5 (3%) expect the UKUP to gain from the SDLP.
5 (3%) expect the DUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP and SDLP to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
2 (1%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Conservatives to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP and SF to gain from the DUP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the SDLP.
East Londonderry Average prediction: DUP 2.5, UUP 1.5, SF 1.0, SDLP 1.0
70 (49%) expect no change.
65 (45%) expect the DUP to gain a seat from the UUP.
3 (2%) expect the UKUP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP and SF to gain both UUP seats.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects Alliance to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UUP to gain from the SDLP.
South Belfast Average prediction: SDLP 1.8, DUP 1.7, UUP 1.3, SF 0.8, Alliance 0.3 64 (44%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
24 (17%) expect no change.
21 (15%) expect the DUP and Alliance to gain from the UUP and SF.
13 (9%) expect the DUP and Alliance to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
6 (4%) expect Alliance to gain from the UUP.
5 (3%) expect Alliance to gain from SF.
5 (3%) expect Alliance to gain from the SDLP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the Greens to gain from the UUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the UUP.
South Antrim
Average prediction: DUP 2.2, UUP 1.8, SDLP 0.8, SF 0.7, Alliance 0.5 57 (40%) expect SF to gain from Alliance.
24 (17%) expect no change.
19 (13%) expect Sf to gain from the SDLP.
10 (7%) expect the DUP to gain from the UUP.
9 (6%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and SDLP.
8 (6%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the UUP and Alliance.
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP to gain from Alliance.
3 (2%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from the SDLP and Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects SF to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the UKUP to gain from the DUP.
1 (0.7%) expects the SDLP to gain from Alliance.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects SF and the UKUP to gain from the SDLP and Alliance.
Lagan Valley Average prediction: DUP 2.7, UUP 1.5, Alliance 0.8, SF 0.6, SDLP 0.5 45 (31%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
28 (19%) expect the DUP to retain both their defection gains from the UUP.
10 (7%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance and SF from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
9 (6%) expect the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
9 (6%) expect the UUP to recoup both defection losses.
7 (5%) expect SF to gain from the SDLP and the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
6 (4%) expect the UUP to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
6 (4%) expect the UUP to gain from the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
5 (3%) expect SF to gain from Alliance and the DUP to keep
one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
4 (3%) expect the DUP and SF to gain from Alliance and the SDLP (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
2 (1%) expect the UUP to recoup one of their losses by defection and the other to be gained by SF.
2 (1%) expect the UUP to recoup both defection losses and SF to gain from the SDLP.
1 (0.7%) expects the DUP to lose a defection gain to the UKUP.
1 expects the UKUP to gain from Alliance (and the DUP to keep both defection gains).
1 expects the UKUP to gain from Alliance and the DUP to keep one defection gain with the other being recouped by the UUP.
1 expects the DUP to gain from Alliance (and keep both defection gains).
1 expects the DUP to gain from the SDLP (and keep both defection gains).
1 expects the UUP to recoup both defection losses and SF to gain from Alliance.
