The 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly Election: Predictions

Overall result

Constituency-by-constituency predictions

The least expected seat changes were: the SDLP loss in South Down (51%), the SF gain in South Down (49%), the SF gain in North Antrim (44%), the SDLP loss in West Belfast (43%), the NIWC loss in South Belfast (42%), the UUP loss in North Antrim (40%), the UUP seat gain in Lagan Valley (34%), the SDLP loss in East Antrim (24%), the second DUP gain in North Down (19%), the DUP gain in West Belfast (14%), the second DUP gain in East Antrim (14%), and the Independent gain in West Tyrone (2%).

The ten most widely expected seat changes that didn't happen were: SF gain in West Tyrone (63%), SDLP loss in South Belfast (52%), DUP gain in East Belfast (50%), DUP gain in Lagan Valley (50%), Alliance loss in South Antrim (42%), SF gain in South Antrim (42%), SDLP loss in Foyle (35%), SDLP gain in Strangford (31%), SF gain in Foyle (28%), and UUP loss in East Belfast (26%).

East Belfast  DUP 2, UUP 2, PUP 1, Alliance 1 - 1998  DUP 2, UUP 2, PUP 1, Alliance 1 - 2003 - no change  50% predict DUP gain a third seat 26% predict UUP lose a seat 22% predict PUP lose their seat 7% predict Alliance lose their seat	North Belfast  DUP 1, UUP 1, PUP 1, OthU 1, SDLP 1, SF 1 - 1998  DUP 2, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 2 - 2003  87% predict UUC loses his seat 87% predict DUP gain a second seat 73% predict SF gain a second seat 63% predict PUP lose their seat 13% predict UUP lose their seat
South Belfast  DUP 1, UUP 2, NIWC 1, SDLP 2 - 1998  DUP 1, UUP 2, SDLP 2, SF 1 - 2003  79% predict SF win a seat 52% predict SDLP lose a seat 42% predict NIWC lose their seat 16% predict Alliance wins at least one seat  11% predict DUP gain a second seat 9% predict UUP lose at least one seat	West Belfast  SDLP 2, SF 4 - 1998 DUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 4 - 2003 43% predict SDLP lose a seat 19% predict SF gain a fifth seat 14% predict DUP win a seat 13% predict UUP win a seat
East Antrim  DUP 1, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 - 1998 DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 - 2003 88% predict DUP gain at least a second seat 88% predict UKUP lose their seat 24% predict SDLP lose their seat 14% predict DUP gain a third seat 8% predict UUP lose a seat 7% predict SF win a seat 5% predict Oth wins a seat 5% predict Alliance loses its seat	North Antrim  DUP 3, UUP 2, SDLP 1 - 1998 DUP 3, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1 - 2003 44% predict SF win a seat 40% predict UUP lose a seat 11% predict DUP lose at least one seat 5% predict SDLP gain a second seat
South Antrim  DUP 1, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 - 1998 DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 - 1998 85% predict NIUP/UKUP loses their seat 83% predict DUP gain a second seat 42% predict Alliance loses its seat 42% predict SF win a seat 5% predict UUP lose a seat	Lagan Valley  DUP 1, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 3, Alliance 1, SDLP 1 - 2003 100% predict UKUP seat lost (no candidate) 50% predict DUP gain a second seat 34% predict UUP gain a third seat 22% predict SF win a seat 19% predict Oth wins a seat 17% predict SDLP lose their seat 7% predict Alliance loses its seat
North Down  UUP 3, UKUP 1, Alliance 1, NIWC 1 - 1998 DUP 2, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1 - 1998 89% predict DUP win at least one seat 63% predict UUP lose at least one seat 53% predict NIWC lose their seat 19% predict DUP win two seats 10% predict SDLP win a seat 6% predict UKUP loses its seat	South Down  DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 3, SF 1 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 2, SF 2 - 2003 51% predict SDLP lose a seat 49% predict SF win at least a second seat
Newry and Armagh  DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 2, SF 2 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 3 - 2003 18% predict SF gain a third seat 16% predict SDLP lose a seat	Strangford  DUP 2, UUP 2, UKUP 1, Alliance 1 - 1998 DUP 3, UUP 2, Alliance 1 - 2003 80% predict NIUP/UKUP lose their seat 58% predict DUP gain a third seat 31% predict SDLP gain a seat 9% predict Alliance loses its seat
Upper Bann  DUP 1, UUP 2, Oth U 1, SDLP 1, SF 1 - 1998 DUP 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 - 2003 (100% predict loss for Oth U = UUC as 1998's successful candidate is standing for the DUP) 89% predict DUP gains at least a second seat 14% predict UUP loses a seat 8% predict SF gain a second seat 7% predict Oth gains a seat	Fermanagh and S. Tyrone  DUP 1, UUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 2 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 2 - 2003 - no change 15% predict UUP lose at least one seat 7% predict DUP gain a second seat 6% predict SF gain a third seat
Foyle  DUP 1, SDLP 3, SF 2 - 1998 DUP 1, SDLP 3, SF 2 - 2003 - no change 35% predict SDLP lose at least one seat 28% predict SF gain a third seat 7% predict Oth wins a seat	East Londonderry  DUP 1, UUP 2, Oth U 1, SDLP 2 - 1998 DUP 2, UUP 2, SDLP 1, SF 1 - 2003 82% predict UUC loses his seat 82% predict DUP gains at least a second seat 78% predict SDLP lose a seat 78% predict SF win at least one seat 23% predict UUP lose at least one seat 14% predict UKUP win a seat
Mid Ulster  DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 3 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 3 - 2003 - no change 8% predict SDLP gain a second seat 7% predict SF lose a seat	West Tyrone  DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 2, SF 2 - 1998 DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 2, Ind 1 - 2003 63% predict SF gain a third seat 63% predict SDLP lose a seat 2% predict the surprise result of the election, a gain by Independent candidate Kieran Deeny

The Prediction Contests: 2004 | 2003 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998

See also:The constituencies | Single Transferable Vote | The political parties | The Jenkins Report | 1998 Assembly election | 1998 candidates | Useful books and links

Results from 1996 to 2001 for each seat:East Belfast | North Belfast | South Belfast | West Belfast | East Antrim | North Antrim | South Antrim | North Down | South Down | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Foyle | Lagan Valley | East Londonderry | Mid Ulster | Newry and Armagh | Strangford | West Tyrone | Upper Bann

Surveys of each recent election: 2004 European | 2003 Assembly | 2001 Westminster | 2001 local govt | 2000 S Antrim | 1999 European | 1998 Assembly | 1997 local govt | 1997 Westminster | 1996 Forum | 1995 N Down | 1994 European | 1993 local govt | 1992 Westminster | 1989 European | 1989 local govt | 1987 Westminster | 1986 by-elections | 1985 local govt | 1984 European | 1983 Westminster | 1982 Assembly | 1981 local govt | 1979 European | 1979 Westminster | 1977 local govt | 1975 Convention | Oct 1974 Westminster | Feb 1974 Westminster | 1973 Assembly | 1973 local govt | Summary of all Northern Ireland elections since 1973 | Brief summary of election results 1997-2003

Historical pieces:Westminster elections 1885-1910 | The 1918 election | Dáil elections since 1918 | Westminster elections since 1920 | Senate of Southern Ireland 1921 | Irish Senate elections in 1925 | Northern Ireland House of Commons | Northern Ireland Senate |

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

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Nicholas Whyte, 3 November 2003; last updated Saturday, November 29, 2003 00:35:25