Background to the Research

• In 1994, a team from the University of Ulster conducted an analysis, of the 1991 NI Census data, with the aim of examining its potential implications for future housing needs.
• The data which were extrapolated from the Census, was used to underpin the Housing Executive's subsequent Strategic Plans.
• The Net Stock Model was also developed on the basis of the analysis.
• This research investigated how successful the predictions made in 1994 were and, based upon 2001 Census data, makes predictions of its own in relation to demographic trends and housing needs until 2011.
• The predictions made involved the use of an updated Net Stock Model (Professor Chris Paris) and the Housing Needs Model, which was developed by Dr Alan Holmans of Cambridge University.
  

Research Approach

• The Key objectives of this study were:
  • To review the main demographic trends in NI in relation to the United Kingdom, the island of Ireland as a whole and the European Union, with reference to socio-economic changes affecting demographic trends.
  • To explore views and attitudes about demographic models in housing need assessment, especially the extent to which the net stock model may be appropriate in the future assessment of housing need in NI.
  • To evaluate the net stock model used by the Housing Executive since 1994 and more recent models of housing demand and need in England developed at Cambridge University.
  • To develop a new census-based model of demand/need for NI for the period 2001-2011 to provide estimates of four things:
    • Total new build requirements by private/social sectors;
    • Regional requirements at a scale to be agreed;
    • The need for 'affordable' housing (private/social) on the basis of an agreed definition;
    • The need for supported (social) housing in the context of demographic change and government policy.
• The research methodology involved two key strands. In the first, secondary analysis of demographic data from the 2001 Census and 2001 House Condition Survey and other housing statistics provided quantitative data. Qualitative data were obtained during semi-structured interviews with key players within the housing market.
  

Main Findings

Key demographic trends 1991-2001

• There was a continuation of most demographic trends between the years, 1981-1991.
• A net population growth of 107,000 produced a total population of 1.7 million. This equates to a 6.8% rate of growth.
• There was an outward migration of approximately 5,000 people.
• There was a very strong rate of growth of 18% amongst households (96,300) which produced a total of 626,700. This growth rate is nearly three times that of population growth.
• Average Household Size decreased from 2.93 in 1991 to 2.65 in 2001.

The Implications of Demographic Trends

• Demographic trends, when considered in conjunction with the Actuary General's population projections suggest that significant growth in both demand and need should be expected.
• The average size of households is still higher than in Great Britain but is expected to fall further.
• Both predictive models indicated that there will be the need for an additional 14-15,000 social housing units during the years, 2001-2011. Neither of the estimates took into consideration the backlog which has emerged in recent years and the imbalances in local supply and demand.
• It was suggested, however, by some trends, that over time there could be a decline in the rate of new household formation and reduction in the longer term demand and need.
• It is anticipated that there will be diminished need for 'family' housing, particularly within the social sector, where increased demand exists amongst lone parents and childless couples and acutely, single people.
• The need for housing for single people may include conversions and/or acquisitions as well as new build housing.
• Variations at sub-regional and local levels emphasized that the location of any development is crucial.

Expert Consultations

• Consultations with local housing market experts revealed widespread confidence.
• Experts predicted house prices to continue to match or exceed the rate of inflation.
• Many experts expressed the view that high levels of new build within the private sector would continue.
• Other experts were concerned that tighter planning restrictions on land supply would result in price increases.
• All of the experts recognized the Housing Executive's strategic role within the housing market.
• Most of the experts agreed that a planning model was required to justify the Housing Executive's social housing programme.
• No viable alternative to the net stock model was proposed.

Recommendations

• The authors recommended that the Housing Executive should employ both demographic models from sections 4 and 5 in conjunction with a bottom up approach as the most effective method of assessing the social housing programme.
• In order to meet the projected demand, the social housing programme should aim, between the years 2001-2011, to meet the needs of additional 1,400-1,500 units per annum.
• It is vital that consideration is given to the current backlog and mismatch as well as local data to determine the overall social housing programme.
• The authors argue that this range is "firmly defensible on the basis of demographic trends". (p4).
• Attention should be paid to the age distribution amongst social tenants. The Housing Executive should also develop a model which could predict the likely levels of re-lets by area.
• Workshops should also be organized by the Housing Executive to examine issues and variations at sub-regional and local levels.
• The Housing Executive should publish a simple guide to the use of strategic house planning models for consumption by non-specialists.
• Research into cross-border developments, particularly in relation to housing searches and preferences, should be commissioned.
• As a result of the views expressed by experts, and in light of the strategic planning preference for the re-use of brown field rather than green field land, the Housing Executive should commission research on the trade-offs within NI in relation to location, tenure and dwelling type and housing preferences.
• The government should retain the 2001 Census definitions and categories for inclusion within the 2011 Census.
• In the event that the government amends the Census, any changes should enable the analysis of demographic trends from the 2001 Census.