Research Approach

• This paper introduces for the first time in NI an electoralecology approach. The returns of the 1991 Census of Population and the 1993 local election results are merged and examined in order to explore the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of voting behaviour.
• The division of NI into 101 DEAs facilitated the introduction of this approach since it made possible the use of the necessary multivariate analysis as a valid electoral and statistical exercise. The DEAs therefore are the unit of analysis.

Main Findings

• This new approach is placed in the context of the two principal models of voting behaviour which have developed in recent years. The first is based on party identification, the lifelong attachment by individuals to a party. The second is based on a rational choice approach where voters weigh up all the issues and approaches before coming to a decision, The former model has always been seen as depicting well the NI approach.
• This paper concentrates on linking the demographic indicators from the census with key electoral factors such as turnout and party preference. The analysis is set against the important demographic shifts which have taken place in the last decade. These include the overall rise in the proportion of the population that is Catholic and in particular, the rise of the Catholic middle class.
• The paper deals at length with the way in which the census data and ward data was linked. This was of central importance since the wards (the building blocks for census analysis) had been reorganised between the taking of the census and voting in the elections.
• A core section of the paper concentrates on voting preferences as expressed at DEA level. Factor analysis was the key technique adapted with factor scares subsequently utilised in multiple regressions as a guide to the type of variables which could best predict the potential support for the five main parties (UUP, DUP, Alliance, SDLP and Sinn Fein).
• The second major focus of interest in the analysis in the paper is the way in which social and economic factors influence turnout rates at local government elections in NI.
• The paper highlights that the key three influences on turnout are the percentage Protestant/Catholic population; the number of self employed individuals in the DEA and the geographical region.
• The paper concludes that whilst religion is a dominant factor in party support, the nature of intra unionist and nationalist competition is changing within an unstable political environment.
• The research provides the benchmark to measure on a longitudinal basis, the electoral response to the unfolding political landscape.