Background to the Research

• The NIHE commissioned a team from the University of Ulster to investigate social, economic and demographic trends in Northern Ireland and their effects on housing requirements, especially regarding the provision of new build in the public and private sectors over the planning period of 1994/5 - 1997/8.

Research Approach

• The research was carried out over a three-month period and involved two main components:
  • Reviewing past trends and suggesting their future directions.
  • Assessing the possible impact of past trends on future new build requirements.
• The primary data sources used for the analysis of demographic change were the censuses of 1981 and 1991. Census data were supplemented, where possible, with other data on demographic trends in Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the European Union. Other data were made available by the NIHE and the Department of the Environment Northern Ireland.

Key Findings

• Demographic change in Northern Ireland between 1981 and 1991 followed United Kingdom and European trends, including: falling household size and growth in single living; a falling proportion of traditional families; a changing pattern of household headship; a growing proportion of lone parents; increasing age at marriage; declining marriage rates, more remarriage and cohabitation; an ageing population; lower fertility and birth rates; a decreasing death rate; and an increase in illegitimate live births.
• Demographic trends have been increasingly reflected in the NIHE waiting list, although elderly persons are slightly under-represented, probably due to their higher representation on Housing Association waiting lists.
• Census data showed net out-migration between 1981 and 1991 of 69,400 persons; nearly 60% were males. Modest net in-migration during the early 1990s was expected to switch to net out-migration during the late 1990s.
• Low household incomes and high levels of unemployment in Northern Ireland have not had appreciable impacts on demographic change. A changing demographic structure could lead to increased out-migration connected with the labour market. Demographic change is having a number of impacts on housing demand and need.
• Most of the trends identified during the 1980s are expected to continue during the 1990s, especially declining birth rate, later marriages and falling household size and the growth of the elderly population. There can be less certainty over the future pattern of net migration.
• The NIHE approach to estimating needs and future needs was considered to be appropriate, especially in the light of extensive local knowledge of issues and circumstances.
• Demographic trends are not likely to exert significantly new influences on trends in new build in the owner-occupied, NIHE and Housing Association sectors during the planning period. In the longer term, however, demographic factors could ease pressure on housing supply and result in a lower rate of private sector new build.
• Overall growth in households and the incidence of poverty among many groups, justify an increased rate of provision, especially during the shorter term. The type and location of new build, together with policies on improvement and conversion of the existing stock, will crucially influence the effectiveness of such programmes. Home ownership is expected to increase proportionally in Northern Ireland and social housing provision to decrease.
• Overall vacancy rates have fallen recently due to market conditions in the owner-occupied sector and effective management in the NIHE sector. Care in the Community could result in older people occupying dwellings for longer periods of time in all sectors. As well, it may lead to more applications from elderly persons for housing associations and NIHE accommodation.