Background to the Research

• Unemployment is one of most serious social and economic issues in NI. In 1997, official figures stated that 60,000 people were unemployed - some 8% of the labour force. Alongside this, 50,000 people claim ICB - perhaps a disguised form of unemployment and 27,000 individuals are on government unemployment/training schemes. A sizeable number of people seeking work are ineligible for benefits. The total level of unemployment in the region is estimated to be over 100,000 - nearly double the official figure.
  

Research Approach

• The chapter uses government and academic data to explore why unemployment has been historically high in the North and why Catholic unemployment remains persistently higher than unemployment among the Protestant population.

Main Findings

• The presence of high unemployment is a feature of the wider UK and joblessness is not unique to NI. However, the presence of high unemployment alongside a relatively favourable amount of job creation is unique to NI.
• The majority of the 60,000 unemployed in 1997 were men - male employment was more than double that for females.
• Long-term unemployment is high in the North, in 1995 47,400 (57% of claimants) were LTU. 18,000 of these were unemployed for more than 5 years. Long-term unemployment in the 1990s in the North was double that of GB. Short-term unemployment in the 1990s converged with GB and by 1997 it was below the UK average.
• The number of those unable to work because of illness/incapacity grew from 42,000 to 96,000 in 1996. The decade between 1980-90 saw the doubling of those on ICB; this happened despite improvements in the health of the population in the North.
• Unemployment in the North is high because of the higher proportion of the population who are economically active - there is an over-supply of labour in relation to demand.
• High unemployment alongside high rates of job creation can be explained in terms of the high rate of natural increase in the working-age population of the region. The North has the highest birth rate of any European region. A surplus of labour will persist until such times as employment grows at rates above the UK and European averages.
• Between 1971 and 1996, the natural increase in the male labour market force outstripped the change in employment by nearly 180,000 jobs. Migration has partially offset the annual natural increase in the labour force. A high rate of out-migration and falling economic activity prevented a huge rise in unemployment during this period.
• The unemployment gap between the North and Britain is an important feature of the migration rate. Unemployment in the North tends to rise by a sufficient amount above that for GB to spur migration, which in turn prevents a further rise in unemployment in the province.
• For the reasons outlined above, unemployment in the North is likely to remain above that in GB until the level of natural increase converges with the level in Britain. This may take 15-20 years.
• Wage levels in the North are 10-15% below the UK average, in 1996 weekly earnings were 13% below the UK average for males and for manual females. This is connected to the surplus of available labour.

Religious Differences in Unemployment

• There is an uneven distribution of unemployment across areas and communities in the North. In 1997, in the TTWA of Ballymena, the unemployment rate was 5.7% below the UK average, whereas in the Strabane TTWA it was 12.9% above the UK average.
• The unemployment rate in the North in TTWAs is linked more closely to religious denomination than to job creation. All the TTWAs with high unemployment have a majority Catholic population and the TTWAs with low unemployment have a majority Protestant population.
• Unemployment rates amongst Catholic males were 20-30% higher during the years up to 1994 and have always been 2 to 2.6 times higher than the rate for Protestant males. Unemployment for Catholic females has also been higher, in 1994 8% for Catholic females and 5% for their Protestant counterparts. These differences result from the disparity in the growth of the economically active population in each community - Catholic employment has not kept pace with the rate of the Catholic population becoming economically active.

Conclusions

• High unemployment in the North is a manifestation of the imbalance between the natural rate of increase in the working-age population (which is high) and the rate of job creation (which is slower).
• Continuing high unemployment among the Catholic population is also a manifestation of the imbalance between the rate of natural increase in the Catholic population (which is high) and the rate of job creation (which is lower).
• Lack of Catholic mobility seems to have little impact on Catholic unemployment rates given the geographical pattern (and therefore sectarian) distribution of job creation in recent years. A more important factor appears to be the greater rate of emigration among Catholics.
• The birth-rate in NI is converging with the British average and Catholic birth-rates are converging with the rate for Protestants - this will change the labour market situation in the long-term. Short-term unemployment rates in the region are declining and are now below the British average, although the rate of long-term unemployment in the region remains high.