Background to the Research

• The NI report forms part of a series of publications of data on key economic, social and environmental conditions in the regions of the UK.

Research Approach

• The data is drawn from all central government departments in the region and from other organisations. Comparisons are made with national trends and with similar regions of the UK and Europe.
  

Main Findings

Population

• Between 1981 and 1995 the population grew on average by 0.5% per year, compared with 0.3% for the UK. From 1961 to 1991 the NI population increased by 12% to 1.6 million. The population in 1995 was estimated to be 1.65 million and by 2011 it is estimated that it will increase by 3% to 1.7 million. NI has one of the fastest growing populations in the UK, with a rate of increase comparable with the East Midlands and the South East of England.
• Between 1961 and 1991 birth rates in NI were markedly higher than any other region of the UK. Despite the steady decline in NI birth rates during this period, its rate of 14.5 births per thousand in 1995 was still higher than the national average of 12.5.
• Death rates per thousand of population in NI have always been slightly lower than the national rate - because of the younger age structure of the NI population. The death rate in 1995 was 9.3 per thousand compared to 10.9 for the UK.
• Migration from NI was greatest in the early to mid-1970s and again in 1981/2 and 1987/8. In 1990/1, for the first time, a net inward migration of 2,000 people was recorded. This net inflow of migrants continued until 1994/5, when the traditional pattern of emigration resumed with a net outflow of 200 people.
• NI has proportionately more children aged 0 to 15 years and fewer people over retirement age. The proportion of children aged under 15 years fell from 31% of the population in 1971 to 25% in 1995, and is expected to decline to 21% by 2011. Retired people are projected to make up 17% of the population by 2011 compared with 13% in 1971.
• Life expectancy for those born in 1995 is expected to be 73 years for males and 78 years for females, an increase of 26 and 32 years for males and females respectively since the beginning of the twentieth century. However, life expectancy in GB is projected to be 74 years for males and 80 years for females.

The Economy

• In 1995, GDP was just under £14 billion (2.3% of the UK total). NI's GDP per head of population in that year was £8,410 per person (83% of the UK average and the lowest of any UK region). In 1994, NI's GDP per head of population was 80% of the EU average, putting it among the 25 poorest regions of the EU.
• The regional labour market is dominated by service industries, mirroring the pattern nationally. One-in-three employees in NI works in the public sector, compared with one-in-five nationally. Agriculture, forestry and fishing accounted for 4.9% of GDP in 1995 and employed 5.9% of civil employment in 1996.
• The Spring 1996 LFS showed that 59% of the adult population (aged 16 or over) were economically active - compared to 62% in the UK. In keeping with the broader trend in the UK in recent years, male economic activity rates have been declining and female economic activity rates increasing in NI.
• In 1996, the proportion of the regional labour force aged under 25 years (some 20%) was the highest in the UK and the proportion aged 45 years or over (some 29%) the lowest.
• In March 1996 there were over 576,000 employees in employment in the region, a 14% increase compared with 1986. Over that decade the number of employees in the UK rose by around 4%.
• Employment growth in the region has been centred around part-time and female employment. Of the 33,100 jobs created between 1991 and 1995, all of the increase in male employment is accounted for by part-time employment and 97% of the increase in female employment.
• Average weekly gross earnings per NI employee are around 90% of GB earnings. On average, the highest paid employees in the region are males in non-manual occupations in financial intermediation who receive £541 per week. The lowest paid full-time employees are females in manual occupations in hotels/restaurants who receive £138 per week.
• Between 1985 and 1995 unemployment trends in NI broadly followed the same pattern as the UK, although unemployment in the region was higher than the national level it was more stable. In 1993 the UK unemployment rate of over 10% was nearly double that of the rate of 6% in late 1980s, whereas the NI rate was 14% in 1993, an increase of only a percentage since the late 1980s.
• Over the decade 1987-97 the proportion of the unemployed who have been out of work for more than a year (the LTU) has been consistently higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. In January 1997, 54% of the unemployed were LTU compared to the UK average of 36%.
• Twenty-five per cent of the economically active in the region have no formal qualifications compared with 18% in the UK.

The People

• In the 1991 Census, around half (51%) the population were Protestant and 38% of were Catholic. A recent CHS (1993/4 to 1995/6) showed that 42% of the population were Catholic and 54% were Protestant.
• In 1991, the proportion of Protestants in each LGD population ranged from more than three-quarters in Carrickfergus and Castlereagh Borough Councils to around one-fifth in Newry and Mourne. Carrickfergus has the lowest Catholic proportion (7%) and Newry the highest (72%).
• The 1994 LFS estimated that Catholics made up 40% of the economically active population and 38% of the employed. According to the 1991 Census, among the employed, Protestants were disproportionally represented in sales occupations, as managers and administrators and in personal and protective services, whereas Catholics representation was highest in the professional, associate professional and technical, and craft and related occupations.
• Data from the LFS 1994 showed that the unemployment rate for Catholics was 16% and 9% for Protestants. The unemployment rate for Catholic men (22%) was twice that of Protestant men (11%). The unemployment rates for women were 8% for Catholic women and 5% for Protestant women. Two-thirds of unemployed Catholics had been looking for work for at least a year compared with just over half of unemployed Protestants.
• Catholic households consist of 3.0 persons on average compared with 2.4 persons for Protestant households. Catholic average household incomes have tended to be around 15% lower than those of Protestant households. In 1995, 30% of Catholic household income came from social security benefits compared with 18% for Protestant households.
• In 1995-6 over three-quarters of the region's men and more than half of its women in the age range 20-24 lived with their parents, compared with over half of men and more than a third of women in England.
• One in eight households in NI are lone parent families, the majority are headed by a mother. Twenty-three per cent of all families with dependent children in NI were headed by lone parents compared to 22% in GB.
• In 1995, there were 8,576 marriages in NI, between 1965 and 1995 the number of marriages fell by 18%. Between 1985 and 1995, divorce increased from 2.5 to 3.3 divorces per thousand married population. In 1995, there were 2,302 divorces in NI. Co-habitation is not as widespread in NI as in GB - in 1995-6 2% of NI families comprised co-habiting adults compared with 9% in GB.

Living Standards

• In 1995-6 NI had an average gross weekly household income of £323 (85% of the figure for the UK). The region has proportionately more households with a gross weekly income lower than £175 (35.8% compared with 30.8% in the UK). Wages and salaries accounted for 62% of all households income in NI in 1995-6 compared with 64% in the UK.
• Between 1991 and 1996 the proportion of people in receipt of social security benefits rose for most benefits - except for unemployment benefit. In 1996 in NI the proportions of those in receipt of attendance allowance and disability allowance were more than twice those for GB. The numbers of those in receipt of all benefits available due to incapacity/illness in 1996 was treble the 1986 figure.
• In 1995-6 the FES showed that average weekly household expenditure in NI was £287, compared to the UK average of £290. Compared to the UK as a whole in 1995-6, households in NI spent on average 41% less per week on housing; 22% more on fuel, light and power; and 14% more on food.

Housing

• In 1995 there were 600,000 dwellings in NI. Almost one-third (31%) of the region's housing stock is pre-1945 and 47% post-1965 (compared with 46% and 22% respectively in GB). In 1991, 50,400 (8.8%) dwellings in NI were unfit for habitation compared with 7.6 in England.
• NI has a high level of public sector rented housing (25%) compared with the UK figure of 20%. In NI, 92% of public sector housing is rented from the NIHE and the remainder from Housing Associations. Sixty-nine per cent of the occupied stock in 1995 was owner-occupied. In 1996, 4,348 households were accepted as homeless by the NIHE.

Health

• Between 1985 and 1995, death rates for infants in the first year of life in NI have fallen by a quarter, in 1995 7.1 deaths per thousand live births were recorded compared with the national infant mortality rate of 6.2 deaths per thousand live births.
• In 1994, NI had the second highest SMR after Scotland for men and women in the UK. Northern Ireland had the highest recorded death rates for both men and women for respiratory diseases and second only to Scotland for circulatory diseases. NI had the second lowest male death rate for cancer and, along with England, the lowest female cancer death rate.
• During 1995 there were 6,792 road traffic injury accidents in NI, resulting in 1,532 serious injuries and 144 deaths.
• In 1994-5, 29% of men aged 16 or over and 27% of women of the same age smoked cigarettes compared with 36% of men and 29% of women in 1984.
• Over one in four households in NI have at least one person with a limiting long-term illness, a ratio comparable with the GB average.
• By the end of 1995, 139 persons had a positive HIV test and 62 had AIDS.

Education

• The number of schools has fallen by around 8% since 1979/80 to 1,297. In 1995/6 Secondary school enrolment stood at 151,600 - 5% lower than in the start of the 1980s.
• The number of under five's in education in 1995/6 consisted of 46% of the three and four year old population, compared to 59% for England and 74% for Wales.
• From 1980/81 to 1995/6 the pupil teacher ratio for primary schools has fallen from 23.7 to 20.4, the ratio in England for 1995/6 was 23.2. The ratio for secondary schools fell from 15.4 to 14.7 over the same period, the ratio for England in 1995/6 was 16.6.
• In 1995/6, 5% of pupils obtained no graded GCSE results, compared with 8% in England.
• In 1994/5 over 60% of female school leavers had five or more GCSEs (Grades A*-C) or A Levels, whereas the proportion for males was 47%. One in 20 boys left with no qualifications compared with one in 50 girls.

Crime

• Between 1969 and 1994, 3,188 people were killed in incidents related to the 'Troubles'. Over the same period nearly 35,000 shooting incidents took place and nearly 15,000 explosive devices were deployed.
• The police recorded nearly 69,000 notifiable offences in 1995; nearly three-quarters of all recorded crime was accounted for by around 16,000 burglaries and 33,000 thefts. Violent crime accounted for 8,000 offences (12% of total crime).
• In 1995, there were 4,173 notifiable crimes per 100 thousand population in NI compared with 9,465 in England and Wales. NI has the second lowest crime rate of the 43 police force areas in England and Wales. Between 1985 and 1995, the overall crime rate in NI increased by 3% compared with an increase of 30% for England and Wales.