Background to the Research

• In 1995 public sector employment accounted for 30% of civil employment in NI. Employment in the public sector has been declining by about 0.3% per year and since 1989 about 11,000 jobs have been lost.
• In 1994 the Catholic proportion of the economically active population was 39.6% but the Catholic share of employment was 37.6%. In the period 1990-94 the Catholic share of public sector jobs increased by 2.0% and this was less than the 2.7% increase of the Catholic share in the private sector.
• The gap in the Catholic share of employment and the differential between the public and private sectors make any policy changes in the public sector important for two reasons. Firstly, they have implications for the Catholic share of the workforce and secondly, an employment gap can only be closed when employment grows, and as turnover in the public sector is low, closing the gap will be difficult.
  

Research Approach

• The authors set out to explore the impact of recent trends in the public sector on the employment of Protestants and Catholics in order to establish whether changes in public sector employment had negatively affected equality of employment opportunity. This was achieved through several methods. Analysis was carried out of department and service area trends and of FEC monitoring returns for the period 1990 to 1995. Simulation models of various possible employment growth rates in the public sector were constructed and the results analysed. Data on industry and geographical share of public sector employment were also analysed.

Reforms in the Public Sector

• In 1988 CCT and market testing were introduced in health and education and the civil service; local government followed in 1991/2.
• Research shows that in health services only 20% of contracts subject to CCT were awarded to private suppliers and in education services none were awarded to outside suppliers.
• In keeping with the introduction of market testing in Great Britain, job losses have occurred due to CCT. However, these were not exclusive to contracts being awarded to outside suppliers.
  

Main Findings

• The rate of job loss in the public sector has not been uniform. Employment in education has increased whilst sharply declining in health and social services and the civil service.
• The factors affecting job decline in health and social services are different to those for the civil service. The civil service has experienced a squeeze on expenditure accompanied by payroll reductions. Expenditure in the health sector has been growing, market testing has resulted in both payroll reductions and the transfer of employment to the private sector.
• The data from the FEC demonstrates that between 1990 and 1995 the Catholic share of employment rose across all of the public sector (but only slightly in security-related jobs).
• The simulated model demonstrated that the actual increase in the Catholic male share was slightly slower than would have occurred if there had not been a decline in public sector employment. However, job losses in the public sector were equally shared among Protestants and Catholics.
• In relation to the private sector, between 1989 and 1993 the health sector was the main contributor to shifts from the public sector of the provision of public services. FEC data suggests that this process did not negatively affect the Catholic job share.
• The geographical pattern of change in public sector employment showed a mixed pattern depending on the industry studied. Public sector employment declines were greatest in areas where Catholics made up 25%-49% of the working age population. This part of the study showed that public sector job losses had not adversely affected the community balance.

The Future of Employment in the Public Sector

• Government expenditure plans suggest growing pressure on public sector budgets. If the projected rate of growth in education and social services of 1% per annum is realised this will put employment levels under pressure in the private and public sectors.
• The simulated models of employment growth show that if employment decline steepens this will slow down the rate of the convergence of the Catholic share of public sector employment on its share of the labour force.
• All the scenarios analysed in the models showed the Catholic share continuing to grow, where continued proportionality in applications from Catholics, fair employment practices and lower turnover among Catholics (due to the younger age profile of Catholics in the public sector) are present.
• The central issue remains the rate of convergence of the Catholic share of public sector employment on its share in the labour force. It is estimated that if monitored public employment continues to decline by 1% per annum, the Catholic share is estimated to increase by 2.7 percentage points between 1994 and 2000, if public sector employment remains stable this is estimated to be 3.2%.
• In regard to the Catholic share of total employment, a central issue will be the direction of public expenditure. This matters because there may be compensating effects due to transfers and shifts from the public sector due, for example, to contracting out.
• The extent of public expenditure is also a key factor in the compensatory effects, particularly in the employment-intensive areas of health and social services. The projected expenditure for 1995 leaves little room for compensatory effects and transfers.
• The research demonstrates that the Catholic share of employment in the public sector is not independent of the rate of growth of public sector jobs. The reasons for this include the higher turnover of Protestants due to their older age profile, the younger age profile of Catholics in the applicant pool and the size of the Catholic employment gap. There is a slight trade-off between the rate of employment growth in the public sector and the increase in the Catholic share.