Background to the Research

• This paper offers a prÍcis of the main findings from the 1995 report Demographic Review of NI published by the NIEC and sets out a range of key policy implications that flow from the reported data.
  

Research Approach

• The original data are based on the 1991 Census, the CHS, the LFS and the annual reports of the Register General. The NIEC then presented a number of policy implications related to the findings that may be relevant for further consideration and work.
  

Main Findings

Population

• In 1991, the NI population was 1,578,000 - an increase of 46,000 or 3% since 1981. The population had grown rapidly during the 1990s and was estimated to be 1,610,000 in 1994.
• In 1991, the natural rate of population increase was 7 per 1,000 per annum, compared with 2.4 for the UK and 5.9 for the Republic of Ireland and 1.9 for the EU. This high rate of increase is largely due to a high live birth rate and a low crude death rate.
• Historically NI has experienced a net loss of population through emigration, due to the relative weakness of the economy and lack of enough job opportunities. Between 1951 and 1991 there was a net loss of 332,000 - over 8,000 persons per annum.
• The population is significantly younger than most EU countries - the proportion of under 15 year olds is higher and the percentage of those aged 65 and over lower than any other EU country except the Republic of Ireland.

Fertility

• Since the mid-1960s there has been a downward trend in births of about one-third. The number of births to unmarried mothers has increased steadily since 1970, accounting for 21% of all live births in 1992.
• In keeping with the wider European trend, family size in NI has been declining since the early 1960s. The average in 1991 was 2.24 compared with 2.76 in 1961.
• The average number of children born to Catholics stood at 3.25 in 1983 compared with 2.29 for Protestants - the differential has been declining since the 1950s because of smaller Catholic families and if this continues family size will converge by the time that those marrying in the mid-1990s complete their reproductive cycle.

Mortality

• Although above the rate for England and Wales, the death rate in NI has been on a downward trend since 1973 - standing at 9.5 per 1,000 in 1991. Life expectancy has increased by 6.3 years for males to 71.8 and by 8.8 years for females to 77.6 over the period 1950 to 1991.
• The main causes of death are ischaemic heart disease, cancer and cerebrovasacular disease. Differences in infant mortality by social class rates persist, in 1990-91 among professionals it was 4.5 per 1,000 live births, increasing to 10.5 among the unskilled.

Marriage, Divorce and Cohabitation

• The proportion of single people in NI continues to be higher than in Britain, the marriage rate declined between 1970 and 1976, rose in the early 1980s and declined again in the period up to 1991.
• The Catholic marriage rate, although narrowing, remains below the NI average. The number of mixed Catholic/Protestant marriages is estimated to be between 3-6% of all marriages.
• The rate of divorce in NI increased by 50% between 1983 and 1991, the rate in 1991 was 3.4 per 1,000 married populations. This remains well below that in England (12.2).

Demography of Religion

• It is estimated that the Catholic population rose by just less than 2 percentage points per decade between 1971 and 1991. There was a growth of around 14% in the number of Catholics and a fall of 3% in the number of Protestants. The Catholic population is estimated to have accounted for 40.6% of the NI population in 1991.
• Over 30% of Catholics are under the age of 16 years compared with 22% of Protestants. Among those of working age, Catholics make up almost 43% of those under the age of 35, while Protestants account for 64% of those aged 35 and over.

Economic Activity and Employment

• Between 1971 and 1991, the economically active population rose by 77,000 - all of this growth was accounted for by the increase in the number of economically active married women.
• Male economic activity rates have markedly declined over the period 1971-1991, especially among men aged under 25 and those aged 55 years and over. This was largely due to the decline of traditionally male dominated employment such as engineering, textiles and agriculture.

Policy and other Issues

The Economy

• Demography interacts with labour flows, unemployment and emigration and with the underlying economic conditions in the local economy and Britain. Therefore, neither a lower birth rate nor a higher emigration rate automatically leads to a reduced unemployment rate.
• The solution to unemployment may lie in the expansion of indigenous industry, greater inward investment and the raising of research and development levels. Improvements in education and training policies may also help.

Education

• There will be a steady decline in the number of primary school pupils until 2004 and secondary rolls are set to stabilise in the second half of the 1990s with a fall in numbers towards the end of the century. This will result in around 40,000 fewer pupils aged 5-15 at the beginning of the 21st century.
• Despite the decline in the birth rate, demand for higher education is increasing due to government policy, the economy and changing attitudes. There could be a rise in the participation rates of males from Protestant working class backgrounds, mature students and those without formal entry qualifications.

Health Care

• The anticipated growth in the population will create greater demands for health care, but this is expected to tail off after 2011. Because of the geographical distribution of the population, demand will differ within and between areas.
• The projected fall in the birth rate will have implications for maternity and child health provision and sub-regional changes if the Catholic birth rate continues to fall rapidly.
• It is projected that the number of people aged 75 and over will rise by 50% by the year 2025. The ageing of the population will lead to a greater proportion of people becoming frail and in need of care. The spatial distribution of the elderly - highest in rural, inner city and favoured retirement resorts - needs to be considered in the planning of services.

Social Issues

• The number of live births to unmarried mothers has been rising sharply in the last 10 years, though at just over 20% it is well below the level in Britain. However, the number of births to unmarried mothers in their teens is around 1,500 per year and is concentrated in deprived inner city working class areas of Belfast.

Housing

• Between 1981 and 1991, a 3% increase in population was accompanied by a 16% increase in the number of households. This demand for new housing is likely to continue to the beginning of the 21st century.
• The number of single and two person households at both the younger and older ends of the age range is growing. For young people this has lead to greater demand for smaller compact dwellings and for single elderly there has been a growth in the demand for specialised housing - particularly sheltered housing and nursing homes.