Background to the Research

• Although the association between religion and electoral choice has received much attention from researchers, the relationship between religious mobility and party preference has been largely ignored. This article focuses on the impact of religious mobility on party preferences within NI.
  

Research Approach

• The article is based on data drawn from the 1991 and 1994 NI Social Attitudes surveys. This achieved a combined sample size of 2,425. Party preference was measured as the response to a question asking respondents which NI party they would vote for if there was a General Election tomorrow. The main explanatory variable is a five category variable restricted to either past or current membership of the following groups, Catholic; Anglican; Mainline Protestant; Fundamentalist Protestant and None.
  

Main Findings

Profile of the Sample

• Ninety-nine per cent of respondents had a religious origin that was either Protestant or Catholic, and 90% claimed to be currently Catholic or Protestant.
• The majority of Northern Irish people have remained in the same religious grouping as their religion of origin, with variations in stability, ranging from over 90% of Catholics to 60% of fundamentalist Protestants.
• Less than 1% of those of Protestant origin have become Catholic and 2% of Catholics moved to Protestantism. There are somewhat higher levels of inter-denominational mobility flows within Protestantism and all religious groups experience a net loss of members to the 'None' category.

Party Preference

• No person identifying their current religious affiliation as Catholic supported a Unionist party and only 1% of Protestants supported a Nationalist Party (the SDLP).
• Less than 1% of those raised as Catholics support a Unionist party and just over 1% of those with Protestant origins support a Nationalist party.
• The Alliance party attracts some degree of support from both religions, but less than those who stated support for no party, which, overall, was the third most popular response.
• Those with no current religious affiliation (some 38%) and 21% of those who reported their current religious affiliation as Catholic stated support for no party, compared with 12% of those who reported their current religious affiliation as Protestant.
• Amongst Protestants, those who have no religious affiliation are significantly less likely to support a sectarian party. This result does not hold for Catholics, there is no significant difference between those who are currently Catholic and those who have no religious affiliation.
• Amongst people of Protestant origin, support for the Alliance party is greater among those with higher levels of education and who are members of the service class, whilst among Catholics this is true of women, older people, those with secondary education and those who are currently in the labour force.
• Mainline Protestants are more likely than members of the other denominations to prefer no party. Among adults of Catholic origin there is no difference between those who remained Catholic and those who currently have no religious affiliation in relation to preference for no party.
• Support for no political party is a characteristic of younger, single, and poorly educated Protestants and of younger, male, poorly educated Catholics who are not in the labour force.
• Amongst those originating in a Protestant denomination there is a gradient of preferring the DUP to the UUP running from no current religion (who are least likely to support the DUP), through Anglican, Mainline Protestant to Fundamentalist Protestant (where support for the DUP is highest). In contrast, among those of Catholic origin support for SF rather than the SDLP is higher among those who currently have no religious affiliation.
• For both Catholics and Protestants, support for the party perceived as more extreme (SF and DUP respectively) is associated with young people and those who have lower levels of education and are working class.
• Inter-denominational mobility among Protestants is not itself of any significance in shaping party political support. Rather, among those born into Protestantism, their current denomination influences their probability of supporting each particular party to the exclusion of any origin religion effect.

Conclusions

• In NI, the association between political party and religion is very strong. An absence of inter-sectarian political preference is combined with almost no inter-sectarian religious mobility.
• The analysis showed only inter-denominational mobility among Protestants and mobility into the None category by those of both Catholic and Protestant origins. There was no significant inflow into Catholicism nor outflow from the None category.
• Amongst those who support a sectarian party, Anglicans and Mainline Protestants are significantly more likely to prefer the more 'moderate' UUP to the DUP. Given that current religious affiliation, and not origin of affiliation, determines party support, this seems to suggest a growth in support for the less 'extreme' UUP at the expense of the DUP.
• Amongst those of Catholic origin there are no significant differences in party support between the 'Nones' and those who are currently Catholic. There is some indication that mobility into the 'Nones' may be linked to a greater probability of preferring SF over the SDLP.
• The major trend identified in the analysis is the aggregate moderating effect of religious mobility on political preference amongst Protestants.