Between War and Peace: The Political Future of Northern Ireland

Author(s): Paul Bew, Henry Patterson and Paul Teague
Document Type: Book
Year: 1997
Publisher: Lawrence & Wishart
Place of Publication: London
ISBN: 0-85315-771-5
Subject Area(s): Community Relations, Economic Issues, Employment, Equality Issues, NI Conflict, Religion
Client Group(s) : Employees, Paramilitaries, Unemployed

Abbreviations: NI - Northern Ireland, DUP - Democratic Unionist Party, MPs - Members of Parliament, SDLP - Social & Democratic Labour Party, UK - United Kingdom

Background to the Research

  • This book sets out a possible approach to a political settlement in NI. Using historical and economic analysis, it charts Anglo-Irish relations from the inception of the two states in 1921-23 to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, and explores various aspects of the NI economy and cross border economic co-operation.

Research Approach

  • The authors analysed primary and secondary sources ranging from official documents to academic articles in order to propose a fresh perceptive on the NI conflict, and to contribute new research into the nature of Anglo-Irish relations.

Main Findings

Britain's Irish Interest

  • Historically, British government policies in relation to NI have often resulted from different strategic approaches and departmental interests and were overshadowed by internal debates. The calculation of British interests in NI have also been affected by the shifting balance of forces between Unionism and Nationalism in Ireland.

The Anglo-Irish Agreement

  • Since the Sunningdale Agreement of 1973, a key component in the peace process was the need to establish a legitimate set of governmental institutions based on power sharing and an Irish Dimension, the Anglo-Irish Agreement (1985) can be seen as the continuation of this approach.
  • The British and Irish governments had different expectations of the role of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, the Irish wished to see formal consultation between the two governments extended to a range of economic and social issues. The focus of the British government was on co-operation in relation to security and through a recognition of the Irish dimension it hoped to bind Catholics to the NI state, and it also sought to bring about the defeat of Republicanism both politically and militarily.
  • The Anglo-Irish Agreement was unpopular with Protestants and in 1986 the majority of Unionist MPs resigned in protest. However, the Unionist vote in subsequent elections only rose slightly and the Agreement had failed to halt growing political support for Sinn Fein or to have a major impact on political violence.

The Search for a Solution

  • After the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, talks continued between the British and Irish governments, the NI political parties and the representatives of paramilitaries. The British government sought to bring about closer co-operation, co-ordination and harmonisation between the Irish and British governments in the interests of strengthening their respective economies, while Unionists sought to alter Ireland's claim to the North as expressed in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution.
  • The SDLP sought a commitment that all constitutional parties would play a meaningful role in the government of NI. There was growing momentum within Republicanism for a cessation of the armed struggle. By 1993 this phase of the talks had collapsed, however a new alliance between SDLP/Sinn Fein was on the horizon.

The Northern Ireland Economy

  • The NI economy experienced a high degree of de-industrialisation during the recession of the 1970s. Manufacturing in the province fell from 30% in 1960s to 18% in the late 1970s. The province has also experienced persistently high levels of unemployment caused by insufficient job creation and too many people entering the labour market.
  • The difference between the amount raised in local taxes and the amount of public expenditure (the subvention) injected into the NI economy rose steadily from the mid-1970s onward and was some 3.7 billion by the mid-1990s. Despite the extent of economic support from central government, NI has the lowest living standards in the UK.
  • A side-effect of the Troubles and the subvention has been the adoption of a strategy that amounted to increasing the size of the public sector to make up for the shortfall in private sector activity. In the early 1970s, public sector employment represented some 27% of the total workforce and by the mid-1980s this was 42%, falling to 37% by the 1990s.
  • It can be argued that the subvention has created a dependency culture amongst businesses and that the market has been distorted by business incentives in the local economy.
  • It has been argued that the relationship between the subvention, the public sector and regional economic development will change in the context of a political settlement. Any changes would have to consider whether a peace dividend arises because less money is needed for security, whether the UK Treasury will cut the size of the subvention in the light of a political settlement, the nature and extent of improvements in the private sector as a result of peace and whether changes need to be made to the governance structure of the local economy in order to improve performance.

Religion and the Northern Ireland Labour Market

  • Research has consistently shown that; Catholic men are more than twice as likely to be unemployed as Protestant men. Protestants are over-represented in professional, managerial and skilled occupations whilst Catholics are over-represented in semi-skilled and unskilled jobs.
  • Catholic men are hugely under-represented in security related jobs and Catholic women under-represented in administrative and managerial jobs and in clerical, secretarial and sales occupations and they are over-represented in professional jobs.
  • Explanations of the poorer performance of Catholics in the labour market vary from those that argue that Catholic disadvantage stems from Unionist political domination to those who focus on the contrasting educational and skills profiles of the two communities. Another approach has tried to statistically model particular social and economic factors of the two communities in order to account for the better employment performance of Protestants. The evidence would suggest that a multifaceted approach to explaining inequalities is the most fruitful.
  • Since the introduction of the 1989 Fair Employment Act, the Catholic share of employment in nearly every occupational grouping has increased. This has been the result of the active role of the fair employment enforcement agencies and the favourable economic conditions. However, the problem of the unemployment differential between the two communities is as great as ever.

Political Stability through Cross-Border Co-operation

  • A key issue in relation to the progress of the NI economy is the potential benefits from greater economic and business ties between the North and South. The idea that creating an all-island economy will automatically bring greater prosperity has little credence, however, north-south collaborative policies and initiates should be established to improve business performance on both sides of the border.
  • North-South economic co-operation may help to lessen the divide between Nationalism and Unionism. Nationalists may feel that an important part of their identity has been recognised and they may feel more committed to the NI state and Unionists can be satisfied that linkage is constructed in ways that do not alter NI's position within the UK.

A Framework for Peace?

  • After the failure of the 1992 talks, a new approach which emphasised inclusiveness emerged from the British and Irish governments. The Irish belief in inclusiveness was greater than that of the British.
  • Greater progress was made in 1993 when John Major and Albert Reynolds produced the Downing Street Declaration. The key feature of the Declaration was the decision by the British government to support a network of cross-border institutions and to agree that a united Ireland could only come about through the consent of a majority in the North.
  • The IRA declared a complete cessation of military operations on 31 August 1994. This lasted 18 months then collapsed, Sinn Fein were excluded from talks which renewed in June 1995 - as their cease-fire had collapsed. The Forum elections in 1995 resulted in the election of more representatives from Sinn Fein and the DUP than previously.

Conclusions

  • The approach of attempting to include the political extremes of Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries in a peace process was more enthusiastically embraced by the Irish than the British government. The British government remained cautious and set severe limits to the lengths that it would go to in order to bring this about.
  • Given that northern nationalists will not accept an internal settlement, the question for Unionists remains, can they overcome their fear of a betrayal by the British government and accept cross border institutions as an attempt to win acceptance throughout Ireland (North and South) of NI as part of UK as long as majority still want it to be.

 

 

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