Background
to the
Research
- This book sets out a possible
approach to a political settlement in NI. Using historical and economic
analysis, it charts Anglo-Irish relations from the inception of the
two states in 1921-23 to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, and explores
various aspects of the NI economy and cross border economic co-operation.
Research
Approach
- The authors analysed primary and secondary
sources ranging from official documents to academic articles in order
to propose a fresh perceptive on the NI conflict, and to contribute
new research into the nature of Anglo-Irish relations.
Main Findings
Britain's Irish Interest
- Historically, British government policies
in relation to NI have often resulted from different strategic approaches
and departmental interests and were overshadowed by internal debates.
The calculation of British interests in NI have also been affected by
the shifting balance of forces between Unionism and Nationalism in Ireland.
The Anglo-Irish Agreement
- Since the Sunningdale Agreement of 1973,
a key component in the peace process was the need to establish a legitimate
set of governmental institutions based on power sharing and an Irish
Dimension, the Anglo-Irish Agreement (1985) can be seen as the continuation
of this approach.
- The British and Irish governments had
different expectations of the role of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, the
Irish wished to see formal consultation between the two governments
extended to a range of economic and social issues. The focus of the
British government was on co-operation in relation to security and through
a recognition of the Irish dimension it hoped to bind Catholics to the
NI state, and it also sought to bring about the defeat of Republicanism
both politically and militarily.
- The Anglo-Irish Agreement was unpopular
with Protestants and in 1986 the majority of Unionist MPs resigned in
protest. However, the Unionist vote in subsequent elections only rose
slightly and the Agreement had failed to halt growing political support
for Sinn Fein or to have a major impact on political violence.
The Search for a Solution
- After the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement,
talks continued between the British and Irish governments, the NI political
parties and the representatives of paramilitaries. The British government
sought to bring about closer co-operation, co-ordination and harmonisation
between the Irish and British governments in the interests of strengthening
their respective economies, while Unionists sought to alter Ireland's
claim to the North as expressed in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution.
- The SDLP sought a commitment that all
constitutional parties would play a meaningful role in the government
of NI. There was growing momentum within Republicanism for a cessation
of the armed struggle. By 1993 this phase of the talks had collapsed,
however a new alliance between SDLP/Sinn Fein was on the horizon.
The Northern Ireland Economy
- The NI economy experienced a high degree
of de-industrialisation during the recession of the 1970s. Manufacturing
in the province fell from 30% in 1960s to 18% in the late 1970s. The
province has also experienced persistently high levels of unemployment
caused by insufficient job creation and too many people entering the
labour market.
- The difference between the amount raised
in local taxes and the amount of public expenditure (the subvention)
injected into the NI economy rose steadily from the mid-1970s onward
and was some 3.7 billion by the mid-1990s. Despite the extent of economic
support from central government, NI has the lowest living standards
in the UK.
- A side-effect of the Troubles and the
subvention has been the adoption of a strategy that amounted to increasing
the size of the public sector to make up for the shortfall in private
sector activity. In the early 1970s, public sector employment represented
some 27% of the total workforce and by the mid-1980s this was 42%, falling
to 37% by the 1990s.
- It can be argued that the subvention has
created a dependency culture amongst businesses and that the market
has been distorted by business incentives in the local economy.
- It has been argued that the relationship
between the subvention, the public sector and regional economic development
will change in the context of a political settlement. Any changes would
have to consider whether a peace dividend arises because less money
is needed for security, whether the UK Treasury will cut the size of
the subvention in the light of a political settlement, the nature and
extent of improvements in the private sector as a result of peace and
whether changes need to be made to the governance structure of the local
economy in order to improve performance.
Religion and the Northern Ireland
Labour Market
- Research has consistently shown that; Catholic
men are more than twice as likely to be unemployed as Protestant men.
Protestants are over-represented in professional, managerial and skilled
occupations whilst Catholics are over-represented in semi-skilled and
unskilled jobs.
- Catholic men are hugely under-represented
in security related jobs and Catholic women under-represented in administrative
and managerial jobs and in clerical, secretarial and sales occupations
and they are over-represented in professional jobs.
- Explanations of the poorer performance
of Catholics in the labour market vary from those that argue that Catholic
disadvantage stems from Unionist political domination to those who focus
on the contrasting educational and skills profiles of the two communities.
Another approach has tried to statistically model particular social
and economic factors of the two communities in order to account for
the better employment performance of Protestants. The evidence would
suggest that a multifaceted approach to explaining inequalities is the
most fruitful.
- Since the introduction of the 1989 Fair
Employment Act, the Catholic share of employment in nearly every occupational
grouping has increased. This has been the result of the active role
of the fair employment enforcement agencies and the favourable economic
conditions. However, the problem of the unemployment differential between
the two communities is as great as ever.
Political Stability through Cross-Border
Co-operation
- A key issue in relation to the progress
of the NI economy is the potential benefits from greater economic and
business ties between the North and South. The idea that creating an
all-island economy will automatically bring greater prosperity has little
credence, however, north-south collaborative policies and initiates
should be established to improve business performance on both sides
of the border.
- North-South economic co-operation may
help to lessen the divide between Nationalism and Unionism. Nationalists
may feel that an important part of their identity has been recognised
and they may feel more committed to the NI state and Unionists can be
satisfied that linkage is constructed in ways that do not alter NI's
position within the UK.
A Framework for Peace?
- After the failure of the 1992 talks, a
new approach which emphasised inclusiveness emerged from the British
and Irish governments. The Irish belief in inclusiveness was greater
than that of the British.
- Greater progress was made in 1993 when
John Major and Albert Reynolds produced the Downing Street Declaration.
The key feature of the Declaration was the decision by the British government
to support a network of cross-border institutions and to agree that
a united Ireland could only come about through the consent of a majority
in the North.
- The IRA declared a complete cessation
of military operations on 31 August 1994. This lasted 18 months then
collapsed, Sinn Fein were excluded from talks which renewed in June
1995 - as their cease-fire had collapsed. The Forum elections in 1995
resulted in the election of more representatives from Sinn Fein and
the DUP than previously.
Conclusions
- The approach of attempting to include the
political extremes of Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries in a peace
process was more enthusiastically embraced by the Irish than the British
government. The British government remained cautious and set severe
limits to the lengths that it would go to in order to bring this about.
- Given that northern nationalists will
not accept an internal settlement, the question for Unionists remains,
can they overcome their fear of a betrayal by the British government
and accept cross border institutions as an attempt to win acceptance
throughout Ireland (North and South) of NI as part of UK as long as
majority still want it to be.
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